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  CBS News/YouGov: Close races in AZ & NV, Hillary way ahead in VA
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Author Topic: CBS News/YouGov: Close races in AZ & NV, Hillary way ahead in VA  (Read 3933 times)
Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #25 on: August 07, 2016, 10:20:09 am »

There are a lot of things I'm not sure about the 2016 presidential election, but the fact that HRC will win Nevada easily isn't one of them.
I know pollsters undersampling Hispanics in NV has been a problem in the past, but we can't just assume that it will happen again this year.

In 2014, the RCP average had Sandoval up 25 points. On election day, he won by 47 points.
In 2012, only ONE NV poll out of 36 showed Romney narrowly ahead of Obama (and that was in April 2011).

This year, pretty much all polls have shown a very close race in the state and even Joe Ralston says it's not a safe or even likely Clinton state.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html#polls
In the end the margin was 4 points higher.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #26 on: August 07, 2016, 10:24:06 am »

Tender Branson sweating LIKE A DOG and shilling hard for Trump, as always. SAD!
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« Reply #27 on: August 07, 2016, 10:27:08 am »


Yes, but Democrats also outperformed the polls in most other states that year (especially in NH, IA and CO).

Democrats underperforming the polls in white states and overperforming the polls in minority-heavy states? What a twist.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #28 on: August 07, 2016, 10:28:44 am »


Yes, but Democrats also outperformed the polls in most other states that year (especially in NH, IA and CO).

May happen in NV this year once again. Romney better fits for NV than Drumpf. If this pattern remains to same, Hillary will win NV in November by at least eight points.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #29 on: August 07, 2016, 10:49:26 am »

Virginia sailing briskly from Solid R through swing-state territory to Solid D between 2004 and 2016 is as breathtaking as West Virginia making the same trip in reverse from 1996 to 2008.
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« Reply #30 on: August 07, 2016, 10:51:00 am »


Yes, but Democrats also outperformed the polls in most other states that year (especially in NH, IA and CO).

May happen in NV this year once again. Romney better fits for NV than Drumpf. If this pattern remains to same, Hillary will win NV in November by at least eight points.

Also factor in Reid machine working like hell to get Cortez-Masto elected. Reid is still the most powerful man in the state
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« Reply #31 on: August 07, 2016, 11:10:09 am »

And don't forget the Democrats edge now in registration in the state...this is a lean D state, allows for early voting and the Clinton camp is very organized there. She has the union backing and I suspect Clark county will come through big time for her.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #32 on: August 07, 2016, 11:10:34 am »


Is there really no Spanish option? How can you poll NV and AZ without a Spanish interviewer or questionnaire

Don't be silly: If you are smart enough to register for the YouGov online panel in ENGLISH, you are also smart enough to fill out a simple question that asks "Are you voting Clinton or Trump ?"

No Spanish needed.

Roll Eyes

But Hispanics who would respond to a poll in English are different from those who would respond to a poll in Spanish.  The two groups wouldn't necessarily vote for Clinton and Trump by the same margins.  By not having a Spanish language option, the poll misses voters who would only respond if there was such an option.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #33 on: August 07, 2016, 11:12:29 am »

Trump's last winning chance runs through VA. He's done.
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cMac36
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« Reply #34 on: August 07, 2016, 11:16:46 am »

Trump's last winning chance runs through VA. He's done.

No.  His chance of winning is the PA/FL/OH sweep while holding off any Clinton win in a Romney 2012 state.  If that happens he wins 273-265.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #35 on: August 07, 2016, 11:49:44 am »

Wow, the door is fast slamming shut on Trump. He's gonna be on total defense for the next 3 months.

If VA goes Trump, he has to match Romney + FL/OH/IA/NV/NM/NH. Very improbable at this stage

Right, because PA doesn't exist. If Trump wins, he will win PA.
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« Reply #36 on: August 07, 2016, 12:28:41 pm »

That VA number seems a bit inflated, but maybe VA really is becoming less of a swing state. Not surprised about NV. Those of you thinking it will be close will be shocked again on election night, when Hillary easily takes it by more than the actual swing states. No way is it only four points to the left of AZ.

I don't think the VA number is inflated at all.

1.) Virginia has a lot of college educated people (#6 in the nation, 34% of the population has at least a Bachelor's degree), a demographic that has swung heavily against Trump.  Colorado also is probably not that competitive for the same reason.

2.) Virginia has one of the largest veteran populations, along with the second most military bases out of any state in the country (#1 is California).  These people may have shifted away from Trump since he attack the Khans.

3.) Kaine also probably gives a slight boost to Clinton here.

4.) Virginia is trending D in the first place, so all of the above factors are just building on an existing trend.
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« Reply #37 on: August 07, 2016, 12:51:29 pm »

So, Nevada: Lean TRUMP

CBS/YouGov 8/2-8/5, Nevada: 990 LV
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0/ForRelease_NV_20160807.pdf
Indpendents: TRUMP 49% >>>> Hillary 19% >> Johnson 7% > Sein 2%
Republicans: TRUMP 85% >>> Hillary 6% > Johnson 3% >  Stein 0%
Democrats: Hillary 88% >>> TRUMP 5% > Johnson 3% > Stein 0%

Election 2012, Nevada, Independent Voters: Romney 50% > Obama 43%. Obama +7%
CBS/YouGov 8/2-8/5, Nevada, Indp 300 LV: TRUMP 49% >>> Hillary 19%.  TRUMP +30%

 
What does it all mean?
1. This poll underweighted repulbican horribly, Sad!
2. TRUMP can't lose NV, Because he takes the 30% leads of Independent voters.
3. Nevada=Lean TRUMP



 
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Alcon
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« Reply #38 on: August 07, 2016, 12:52:16 pm »


Is there really no Spanish option? How can you poll NV and AZ without a Spanish interviewer or questionnaire

Don't be silly: If you are smart enough to register for the YouGov online panel in ENGLISH, you are also smart enough to fill out a simple question that asks "Are you voting Clinton or Trump ?"

No Spanish needed.

Roll Eyes

But Hispanics who would respond to a poll in English are different from those who would respond to a poll in Spanish.  The two groups wouldn't necessarily vote for Clinton and Trump by the same margins.  By not having a Spanish language option, the poll misses voters who would only respond if there was such an option.


...who are much more Democratic.

Also, Tender, putting aside that people are obviously more likely to hang up on a poll that's in an unfamiliar language, you do realize there are usually likely voter screening questions before the top line?

You also don't particularly seem to understand YouGov's sampling methodology.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #39 on: August 07, 2016, 12:53:17 pm »

So, Nevada: Lean TRUMP

CBS/YouGov 8/2-8/5, Nevada: 990 LV
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0/ForRelease_NV_20160807.pdf
Indpendents: TRUMP 49% >>>> Hillary 19% >> Johnson 7% > Sein 2%
Republicans: TRUMP 85% >>> Hillary 6% > Johnson 3% >  Stein 0%
Democrats: Hillary 88% >>> TRUMP 5% > Johnson 3% > Stein 0%

Election 2012, Nevada, Independent Voters: Romney 50% > Obama 43%. Obama +7%
CBS/YouGov 8/2-8/5, Nevada, Indp 300 LV: TRUMP 49% >>> Hillary 19%.  TRUMP +30%

 
What does it all mean?
1. This poll underweighted repulbican horribly, Sad!
2. TRUMP can't lose NV, Because he takes the 30% leads of Independent voters.
3. Nevada=Lean TRUMP



 
dear God make it stop
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Xing
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« Reply #40 on: August 07, 2016, 12:53:52 pm »

So, Nevada: Lean TRUMP

CBS/YouGov 8/2-8/5, Nevada: 990 LV
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0/ForRelease_NV_20160807.pdf
Indpendents: TRUMP 49% >>>> Hillary 19% >> Johnson 7% > Sein 2%
Republicans: TRUMP 85% >>> Hillary 6% > Johnson 3% >  Stein 0%
Democrats: Hillary 88% >>> TRUMP 5% > Johnson 3% > Stein 0%

Election 2012, Nevada, Independent Voters: Romney 50% > Obama 43%. Obama +7%
CBS/YouGov 8/2-8/5, Nevada, Indp 300 LV: TRUMP 49% >>> Hillary 19%.  TRUMP +30%

 
What does it all mean?
1. This poll underweighted repulbican horribly, Sad!
2. TRUMP can't lose NV, Because he takes the 30% leads of Independent voters.
3. Nevada=Lean TRUMP

You're going to be in for a very depressing night on November 8th.
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Virginia
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« Reply #41 on: August 07, 2016, 12:58:15 pm »

I don't think the VA number is inflated at all.

1.) Virginia has a lot of college educated people (#6 in the nation, 34% of the population has at least a Bachelor's degree), a demographic that has swung heavily against Trump.  Colorado also is probably not that competitive for the same reason.

2.) Virginia has one of the largest veteran populations, along with the second most military bases out of any state in the country (#1 is California).  These people may have shifted away from Trump since he attack the Khans.

3.) Kaine also probably gives a slight boost to Clinton here.

4.) Virginia is trending D in the first place, so all of the above factors are just building on an existing trend.

It's even better in that regard with college educated white voters. Projected figures from Cook Political has Virginia at 42.1% college educated whites vs 26.7% non-college whites. Those are very favorable figures for Democrats, given the electorate movement we have been seeing the past 2 - 3 cycles. It also helps explain why Virginia is trending Democratic so fast. Colorado has somewhat similar figures (41.6% vs 33.9%)

Also, the minority growth in Virginia is currently being powered by Asian and Hispanic voters. All these factors, in addition to what you specified, makes Virginia very friendly territory for Democrats in this cycle and going into the future.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608
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politicallefty
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« Reply #42 on: August 07, 2016, 01:22:00 pm »

It's even better in that regard with college educated white voters. Projected figures from Cook Political has Virginia at 42.1% college educated whites vs 26.7% non-college whites. Those are very favorable figures for Democrats, given the electorate movement we have been seeing the past 2 - 3 cycles. It also helps explain why Virginia is trending Democratic so fast. Colorado has somewhat similar figures (41.6% vs 33.9%)

Also, the minority growth in Virginia is currently being powered by Asian and Hispanic voters. All these factors, in addition to what you specified, makes Virginia very friendly territory for Democrats in this cycle and going into the future.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608

That's not to mention Tim Kaine probably helps somewhat on the margins (I suspect he might be worth 1-2% in favour of Clinton). If those are really the numbers of college-educated whites, Trump is going to get destroyed in Virginia (and that's to mention the military areas where attacking the Khans will not go down well at all). If this sort of polling holds in a place like Virginia, the Clinton campaign should draw down into a ground game and move the air war to Arizona and Georgia (and maybe they should dabble into Utah as well). Hillary Clinton herself is very smart and I hope she realizes that pushing into red states puts Trump on the defensive and improves the odds of winning back both the House and Senate. If she wants to pass some major legislation, she's going to need both Houses of Congress in Democratic hands.
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« Reply #43 on: August 07, 2016, 01:23:39 pm »

Virginia is Likely D. It's still a swing state. But Clinton wins it, with Kaine, a favorite son, being on the ticket. Arizona, Georgia, Missouri will likely be contested. Nevada is a Democratic state now.
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« Reply #44 on: August 07, 2016, 03:28:28 pm »

I am not surprised about VA, particularly as Trump has likely shed some military votes over the past 2 weeks and fell further with college whites.  What is surprising to me is how the same poll can have both NV and AZ so close?  I mean AZ was for Trump before Trump even existed.  How is he in trouble there when he's managing to keep it close in NV?  And both states have large Spanish-speaking populations so there's no reason polls would be skewed more in one than in the other.
Nevada has one of the lowest levels of college education in the country, while Arizona is roughly average.
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« Reply #45 on: August 07, 2016, 03:54:16 pm »

WOW! Great numbers. Time to start investing in Arizona.

I agree.
But to be certain, Clinton should continue to invest some time and resources in Nevada also.
Take no chances.
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« Reply #46 on: August 07, 2016, 04:12:52 pm »

Demographics look OK on Arizona. In 2012 the electorate was 73% white, 19% Hispanic, 8% African-American/other. This poll has it at 74% white, 18% Hispanic, 3% African-American and 5% Asian. Since the Hispanic voter population is growing substantially in Arizona that gives Clinton a lot of room to grow from this poll. I think Trump +2 is right or close to right.

Demographics actually look favorable to Trump compared to the actual Nevada electorate. In 2012 the electorate was 64% white, 19% Hispanic, 9% African-American and 5% Asian. The Nevada poll has 67% white voters when most of the registration increases going on in the state are Democratic and non-white in Clark County (indicating an electorate that will be more diverse than 2012). Jon Ralston has repeatedly said that the voter registration numbers are leading towards a durable Democratic advantage in the state. I think Clinton +2 understates her advantage by 3 or 4 points due to these factors. That would explain why Reid said not to be overconfident (implying that Dems are ahead but not decisively so).
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« Reply #47 on: August 07, 2016, 04:34:23 pm »


But if the Nevada poll is questionable because of that, why isn't Arizona?
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« Reply #48 on: August 07, 2016, 04:39:01 pm »

Demographics look OK on Arizona. In 2012 the electorate was 73% white, 19% Hispanic, 8% African-American/other. This poll has it at 74% white, 18% Hispanic, 3% African-American and 5% Asian. Since the Hispanic voter population is growing substantially in Arizona that gives Clinton a lot of room to grow from this poll. I think Trump +2 is right or close to right.

Demographics actually look favorable to Trump compared to the actual Nevada electorate. In 2012 the electorate was 64% white, 19% Hispanic, 9% African-American and 5% Asian. The Nevada poll has 67% white voters when most of the registration increases going on in the state are Democratic and non-white in Clark County (indicating an electorate that will be more diverse than 2012). Jon Ralston has repeatedly said that the voter registration numbers are leading towards a durable Democratic advantage in the state. I think Clinton +2 understates her advantage by 3 or 4 points due to these factors. That would explain why Reid said not to be overconfident (implying that Dems are ahead but not decisively so).

Also of note is that Arizona in 2008 Latinos voted (56-41 Obama) versus 2012 (74-25 Obama). I suspect that not only will the electorate be several points more Latino in 2016 in both percentage of the electorate, as well as the Democratic share of the Latino vote considering Trump's lack of popularity among Latino voters.
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« Reply #49 on: August 07, 2016, 04:46:21 pm »

How many people in Nevada have switched out of landlines in the past 4 years? 
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