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  CBS News/YouGov: Close races in AZ & NV, Hillary way ahead in VA
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Author Topic: CBS News/YouGov: Close races in AZ & NV, Hillary way ahead in VA  (Read 3929 times)
StatesPoll
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« Reply #50 on: August 07, 2016, 11:48:27 pm »
« edited: August 07, 2016, 11:53:29 pm by StatesPoll »


1. This poll underweighted repulbican horribly, Sad!
 

Party ID is not a demographic like age, sex, or race.  It is a choice / opinion / state of mind.  If polls consistently finds fewer Republicans, it means that fewer people are identifying as Republicans, i.e. people are leaving the party.  Just like the high-profile Republicans who have announced they're leaving because of Trump.

Nevada: Voter Registration by COUNTY & PARTY
1. Last updated: 2/1/2016 8:58 AM. Total 493612 Republicans in Nevada
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4060
2. Last updated: 8/1/2016 8:36 AM.  Total 526177 Republicans in Nevada
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4373


people are leaving the GOP? wrong!

Last 6 months: Republicans in Nevada: +32,565 



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Ebsy
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« Reply #51 on: August 07, 2016, 11:53:20 pm »

The Democratic edge in Nevada registration has been growing since the caucuses and they are far ahead of of the Republicans. The facts don't back up anything you are saying.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #52 on: August 08, 2016, 12:01:38 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2016, 12:05:13 am by StatesPoll »

The Democratic edge in Nevada registration has been growing since the caucuses and they are far ahead of of the Republicans. The facts don't back up anything you are saying.

Of course Democrats > Republicans in Nevada.

But not as this skewed Poll

1. Nevada: CBS News/YouGov. Aug, 2-5 990 LV
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0
Total 990 LV
Total 392 democratic LV (39.59%)
Total 274 republican LV  (27.67%)
Democrats: +11.92%

2. Last updated: 8/1/2016 8:36 AM.  
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4373
Total 1571775 registered voters.
Total 631742 Democrats in Nevada  (40.192%)
Total 526177 Republicans in Nevada (33.476%)
Democrats: +6.716% in Nevada

DEM-REP (margins) = +5.2% overweighted

#unskewthepoll = Actually TRUMP takes the leads about +1~2% of this NV Poll.




 


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Ebsy
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« Reply #53 on: August 08, 2016, 12:15:29 am »

Party registration =!= party id
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Lok
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« Reply #54 on: August 08, 2016, 12:16:53 am »

The Democratic edge in Nevada registration has been growing since the caucuses and they are far ahead of of the Republicans. The facts don't back up anything you are saying.

Of course Democrats > Republicans in Nevada.

But not as this skewed Poll

1. Nevada: CBS News/YouGov. Aug, 2-5 990 LV
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0
Total 990 LV
Total 392 democratic LV (39.59%)
Total 274 republican LV  (27.67%)
Democrats: +11.92%

2. Last updated: 8/1/2016 8:36 AM.  
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4373
Total 1571775 registered voters.
Total 631742 Democrats in Nevada  (40.192%)
Total 526177 Republicans in Nevada (33.476%)
Democrats: +6.716% in Nevada

DEM-REP (margins) = +5.2% overweighted

#unskewthepoll = Actually TRUMP takes the leads about +1~2% of this NV Poll.


This poll is of likely voters, not registered though.
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Landslide Andy
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P

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« Reply #55 on: August 08, 2016, 12:17:25 am »

Why are people replying seriously to StatesPoll?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #56 on: August 08, 2016, 12:58:17 am »

Why are people replying seriously to StatesPoll?

I can't wait until this cretin disappears on November 8 at about 8pm with his tail between his legs.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #57 on: August 08, 2016, 07:39:11 am »

The Democratic edge in Nevada registration has been growing since the caucuses and they are far ahead of of the Republicans. The facts don't back up anything you are saying.

Of course Democrats > Republicans in Nevada.

But not as this skewed Poll

1. Nevada: CBS News/YouGov. Aug, 2-5 990 LV
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0
Total 990 LV
Total 392 democratic LV (39.59%)
Total 274 republican LV  (27.67%)
Democrats: +11.92%

2. Last updated: 8/1/2016 8:36 AM.  
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4373
Total 1571775 registered voters.
Total 631742 Democrats in Nevada  (40.192%)
Total 526177 Republicans in Nevada (33.476%)
Democrats: +6.716% in Nevada

DEM-REP (margins) = +5.2% overweighted

#unskewthepoll = Actually TRUMP takes the leads about +1~2% of this NV Poll.


You need a good explanation of why polls differ from year to year from valid analogies. One typically begins with the results of the previous years and looks for causes in differences from the previous year. Causes include:

1. differences in the quality of the candidates: thus Bill Clinton is not Mike Dukakis and Barack Obama isn't John Kerry.

2. effectiveness of campaigning

3. general satisfaction of people with economics and foreign events

4. demographic change within the states.

5. cultural change that might have a partisan effect.

Your argument misses those.

Mass observation and not your opinion of the candidate (think of all those partisan Democrats who said "Ronald Reagan is simply horrible" or highly-partisan Republicans who thought Obama was the worst thing to ever happen to America). Those were out of touch with America.

"No mo' Ron '84" was a bumper sticker that I remember from 1984. I saw a bumper sticker that reads "OBAMA -- One Big-A$$-Mistake-America" recently.

Ignore those. 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #58 on: August 08, 2016, 08:01:02 am »

How many people in Nevada have switched out of landlines in the past 4 years? 

Isn't this an internet poll?  Why do landlines matter for internet polls?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #59 on: August 08, 2016, 09:11:42 am »

Why are people replying seriously to StatesPoll?
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