CBS News/YouGov: Close races in AZ & NV, Hillary way ahead in VA

[StatesPoll]

So, Nevada: Lean TRUMP

CBS/YouGov 8/2-8/5, Nevada: 990 LV
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0/ForRelease_NV_20160807.pdf
Indpendents: TRUMP 49% >>>> Hillary 19% >> Johnson 7% > Sein 2%
Republicans: TRUMP 85% >>> Hillary 6% > Johnson 3% >  Stein 0%
Democrats: Hillary 88% >>> TRUMP 5% > Johnson 3% > Stein 0%

Election 2012, Nevada, Independent Voters: Romney 50% > Obama 43%. Obama +7%
CBS/YouGov 8/2-8/5, Nevada, Indp 300 LV: TRUMP 49% >>> Hillary 19%.  TRUMP +30%

 
What does it all mean?
1. This poll underweighted repulbican horribly, Sad!
2. TRUMP can't lose NV, Because he takes the 30% leads of Independent voters.
3. Nevada=Lean TRUMP



 

[StatesPoll]

1. This poll underweighted repulbican horribly, Sad!
 

Party ID is not a demographic like age, sex, or race.  It is a choice / opinion / state of mind.  If polls consistently finds fewer Republicans, it means that fewer people are identifying as Republicans, i.e. people are leaving the party.  Just like the high-profile Republicans who have announced they're leaving because of Trump.

Nevada: Voter Registration by COUNTY & PARTY
1. Last updated: 2/1/2016 8:58 AM. Total 493612 Republicans in Nevada
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4060
2. Last updated: 8/1/2016 8:36 AM.  Total 526177 Republicans in Nevada
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4373


people are leaving the GOP? wrong!

Last 6 months: Republicans in Nevada: +32,565 

[StatesPoll]

The Democratic edge in Nevada registration has been growing since the caucuses and they are far ahead of of the Republicans. The facts don't back up anything you are saying.

Of course Democrats > Republicans in Nevada.

But not as this skewed Poll

1. Nevada: CBS News/YouGov. Aug, 2-5 990 LV
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0
Total 990 LV
Total 392 democratic LV (39.59%)
Total 274 republican LV  (27.67%)
Democrats: +11.92%

2. Last updated: 8/1/2016 8:36 AM.  
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4373
Total 1571775 registered voters.
Total 631742 Democrats in Nevada  (40.192%)
Total 526177 Republicans in Nevada (33.476%)
Democrats: +6.716% in Nevada

DEM-REP (margins) = +5.2% overweighted

#unskewthepoll = Actually TRUMP takes the leads about +1~2% of this NV Poll.