I don't think the VA number is inflated at all.
1.) Virginia has a lot of college educated people (#6 in the nation, 34% of the population has at least a Bachelor's degree), a demographic that has swung heavily against Trump. Colorado also is probably not that competitive for the same reason.
2.) Virginia has one of the largest veteran populations, along with the second most military bases out of any state in the country (#1 is California). These people may have shifted away from Trump since he attack the Khans.
3.) Kaine also probably gives a slight boost to Clinton here.
4.) Virginia is trending D in the first place, so all of the above factors are just building on an existing trend.
It's even better in that regard with college educated white voters. Projected figures from Cook Political has Virginia at
42.1% college educated whites
vs 26.7% non-college whites. Those are very favorable figures for Democrats, given the electorate movement we have been seeing the past 2 - 3 cycles. It also helps explain why Virginia is trending Democratic so fast. Colorado has somewhat similar figures
(41.6% vs 33.9%)Also, the minority growth in Virginia is currently being powered by Asian and Hispanic voters. All these factors, in addition to what you specified, makes Virginia very friendly territory for Democrats in this cycle and going into the future.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608
