That VA number seems a bit inflated, but maybe VA really is becoming less of a swing state. Not surprised about NV. Those of you thinking it will be close will be shocked again on election night, when Hillary easily takes it by more than the actual swing states. No way is it only four points to the left of AZ.
I don't think the VA number is inflated at all.
1.) Virginia has a lot of college educated people (#6 in the nation, 34% of the population has at least a Bachelor's degree), a demographic that has swung heavily against Trump. Colorado also is probably not that competitive for the same reason.
2.) Virginia has one of the largest veteran populations, along with the second most military bases out of any state in the country (#1 is California). These people may have shifted away from Trump since he attack the Khans.
3.) Kaine also probably gives a slight boost to Clinton here.
4.) Virginia is trending D in the first place, so all of the above factors are just building on an existing trend.
