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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov-NV: Heck +3  (Read 1023 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: August 07, 2016, 09:35:35 am »

Joe Heck (R): 38%
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D): 35%
Someone else: 4%

Undecided: 23%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-battleground-virginia-arizona-nevada/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7i&linkId=27369660
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2016, 09:46:45 am »

No Spanish option = junk NV poll.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2016, 09:47:19 am »

No Spanish option either. Heck needs to be up, on average, by about 5 points on Election Day to have a chance.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2016, 09:58:28 am »

This might be an example of a race where the candidate who leads in every poll (or almost every poll) loses. If Heck's not overperforming Trump by more than 6, he's done.
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swf541
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2016, 10:22:19 am »

No AZ senate poll?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2016, 10:31:55 am »

No AZ senate poll?

No primary yet.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2016, 11:42:28 am »

This might be an example of a race where the candidate who leads in every poll (or almost every poll) loses. If Heck's not overperforming Trump by more than 6, he's done.

Heller wasn't really posting big leads in the polls but still held on.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2016, 12:05:30 pm »

This might be an example of a race where the candidate who leads in every poll (or almost every poll) loses. If Heck's not overperforming Trump by more than 6, he's done.

Heller wasn't really posting big leads in the polls but still held on.
The last PPP poll had him up 2, he won by 1.3 or something.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2016, 12:46:24 pm »

This might be an example of a race where the candidate who leads in every poll (or almost every poll) loses. If Heck's not overperforming Trump by more than 6, he's done.

Heller wasn't really posting big leads in the polls but still held on.

He was leading in the polls by about 4-5%, and just barely held on, thanks to a large number of Obama voters voting "none of these." Masto is a far better candidate than Berkley, so Heck has his work cut out for him. This race is certainly more competitive than the presidential race in Nevada, but the way things stand right now, I would bet on Masto.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2016, 05:24:59 pm »

I'd say that Catherine Cortez Masto defeats Joe Heck by a few percentage points (1%-5%). Clark County is as large as ever and Nevada isn't as red as it used to be. Plus, Donald Trump is bringing the GOP down with him.

Here's a weird story: When I was vacationing in Las Vegas last week with family, I was talking to my father about an ad attacking Masto, saying that Nevada became more dangerous under her watch. The very same ad aired on television right after I was talking about it.

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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2016, 12:06:08 am »

This might be an example of a race where the candidate who leads in every poll (or almost every poll) loses. If Heck's not overperforming Trump by more than 6, he's done.

Heller wasn't really posting big leads in the polls but still held on.

He was leading in the polls by about 4-5%, and just barely held on, thanks to a large number of Obama voters voting "none of these." Masto is a far better candidate than Berkley, so Heck has his work cut out for him. This race is certainly more competitive than the presidential race in Nevada, but the way things stand right now, I would bet on Masto.

On Election Day, Heller was up two in a PPP poll with no Spanish option.

Of the last four polls before the election on Wikipedia, Heller had an average lead of 2.75%. He won by 1.1%, largely due to VanDerBeek+NOTA over performing the polls.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2016, 12:17:30 am »

Everyone(other than PPP) pretty much systemically overestimated Republican support in Nevada in 2012.

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Heisenberg
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2016, 12:23:33 am »

^Oh, s**t. He polls slightly underestimated Berkley's support (-0.7), but WAY overestimated Heller's support (+2.1). It looks like not including the American Independent (Constitution) candidate was more responsible for Heller's inflated lead than under representing Spanish speakers. Boy will I be pissed if VanDerBeek or whatever his name is spoils the race.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2016, 12:33:21 am »

VanDerBeek isn't running this time.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2016, 12:44:17 am »

VanDerBeek isn't running this time.
Oh. But the American Independents do have a candidate, but he looks much weaker. There's also a Socialist Party candidate running, but I doubt he'll be a factor.
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