Will Hillary win reelection?
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  Will Hillary win reelection?
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Poll
Question: Huh
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Trump will win in 2016
 
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Total Voters: 66

Author Topic: Will Hillary win reelection?  (Read 3378 times)
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darthebearnc
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« on: August 07, 2016, 04:07:07 PM »

Unfortunately, I don't think she will. Four terms for one party is a bit too much to ask for these days.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2016, 04:33:10 PM »

I agree that its too early to say, but I was bold and voted yes. If only because I'm not sure the GOP will be able to piece themselves back together in time by 2020. Not to mention doubts that the base will learn the right lessons from a large Trump defeat and wind up nominating someone like Cruz. Though there is the possibility that I'm wrong and they get their house back in order and nominate a credible candidate. In which case she'll be in some trouble.
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hopper
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2016, 10:46:52 PM »

Too early to tell, especially since beating an incumbent president is very hard. However, I'm pretty sure that 2017 will be a good year for Democrats while 2018 will be an absolute slaughter.
I do think the Dems will win the NJ Governorship and hold on to the VA Governership.
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hopper
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2016, 10:49:02 PM »

I agree that its too early to say, but I was bold and voted yes. If only because I'm not sure the GOP will be able to piece themselves back together in time by 2020. Not to mention doubts that the base will learn the right lessons from a large Trump defeat and wind up nominating someone like Cruz. Though there is the possibility that I'm wrong and they get their house back in order and nominate a credible candidate. In which case she'll be in some trouble.
I agree.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2016, 10:57:34 PM »

If somehow Portman loses to Strickland (although I still think he wins), does he come back and run against Sherrod Brown in 18?
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Spark
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2016, 11:45:03 PM »

Nope
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2016, 12:19:34 AM »

As if there's any way to know 4+ years in advance...
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2016, 12:28:46 AM »

I don't think so - if the Republicans nominate someone like Ryan or Haley, Clinton could lose. Especially if there's a recession before 2020 (and there very well may be).
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Lachi
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2016, 03:30:54 AM »

It probably all depends on how her 1st term goes. Although people will still cause favourables to be low probably just because it is Hillary and they hate her just because they can regardless of how good she is.
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2016, 11:56:52 AM »

As if there's any way to know 4+ years in advance...
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2016, 12:06:48 PM »

Nope.
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Frodo
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2016, 01:21:09 PM »

In all likelihood, yes -I think a lot of you are placing more faith in the self-corrective capacities of the GOP than they deserve.   They aren't going to nominate someone with cross-party or cross-ideological appeal in 2020 -they are going to double down with the Tea Party and pick either Ted Cruz or Tim Scott, either of whom will go down in flames.  Plus, Hillary as an incumbent would be an even more formidable candidate than she is now, with a governing record behind her. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2016, 02:49:44 PM »

2018 Govs in IL, NV, MI and WI favors the Dems and reapportionment with more Latinos favors the Dems in 2020.  I think especially with the Kennedy seat on the Crt vacant after Ginnsberg leaves will give the Dems a 7-2 majority well into 2030 and cement Clinton's 8 years in office.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2016, 03:02:04 PM »

2018 Govs in IL, NV, MI and WI favors the Dems and reapportionment with more Latinos favors the Dems in 2020.  I think especially with the Kennedy seat on the Crt vacant after Ginnsberg leaves will give the Dems a 7-2 majority well into 2030 and cement Clinton's 8 years in office.
He's back!!!
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2016, 12:07:21 PM »

In all likelihood, yes -I think a lot of you are placing more faith in the self-corrective capacities of the GOP than they deserve.   They aren't going to nominate someone with cross-party or cross-ideological appeal in 2020 -they are going to double down with the Tea Party and pick either Ted Cruz or Tim Scott, either of whom will go down in flames.  Plus, Hillary as an incumbent would be an even more formidable candidate than she is now, with a governing record behind her. 

This. I really think Hillary is going to blow some minds in her first term. Obviously there's no way to be 100% sure but I think she's going to be able to get a lot of things done and with a strong economy and (hopefully) stability on the foreign policy front, she should be reelected by a wide margin, assuming the GOP coronates Cruz as their standard bearer
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2016, 12:27:48 PM »

Too early to tell, especially since beating an incumbent president is very hard. However, I'm pretty sure that 2017 will be a good year for Democrats while 2018 will be an absolute slaughter.

Agreed.

Also depends on the Republican candidate. Charlie Baker, Jeff Flake or Nikki Haley could very well win. If Cruz or another Tea-Party nut wins the nomination, he'll lose.
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Kevin
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2016, 01:01:32 PM »

2018 Govs in IL, NV, MI and WI favors the Dems and reapportionment with more Latinos favors the Dems in 2020.  I think especially with the Kennedy seat on the Crt vacant after Ginnsberg leaves will give the Dems a 7-2 majority well into 2030 and cement Clinton's 8 years in office.
He's back!!!
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Kevin
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« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2016, 01:18:34 PM »

I don't think so - if the Republicans nominate someone like Ryan or Haley, Clinton could lose. Especially if there's a recession before 2020 (and there very well may be).

Agreed,

If d a recession happens combined foreign policy problems and the inevitable Clinton corruption occur on her watch then it's very possible she'll lose.

Besides we are way overdue for a 1 termer anyways. Hillary also wouldn't be winning this year if the GOP had actually nominated a coherent sane candidate anyways.

Then again in 2020 if she faces someone in the mold of CHUMP or Cruz she'll prob win again.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2016, 01:50:32 PM »

In all likelihood, yes -I think a lot of you are placing more faith in the self-corrective capacities of the GOP than they deserve.   They aren't going to nominate someone with cross-party or cross-ideological appeal in 2020 -they are going to double down with the Tea Party and pick either Ted Cruz or Tim Scott, either of whom will go down in flames.  Plus, Hillary as an incumbent would be an even more formidable candidate than she is now, with a governing record behind her. 

Whether the GOP electorate "learns the right lessons" from Trump's loss might not necessarily be determinative.  The voters could end up learning absolutely nothing, yet still nominate an electable candidate in the end, because a different group of candidates is running, and the votes split a different way.

There's no guarantee that a candidate as bad as Trump (in terms of being popular with enough primary voters but unpopular with GE voters) will run in 2020, or that if one doesn't, that someone like Cruz will be nominated in his place.  Rerun the 2016 race without Trump, and it's completely possible that a Marco Rubio ends up as the nominee rather than Cruz.  Cruz seemed to be stuck getting the bulk of his support from the rightward edge of the primary electorate, and not clear that he could have expanded beyond that.
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Orser67
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2016, 05:46:36 PM »

I think so.

1)Incumbents usually win re-election

2)The Democratic Party seems to have a generic advantage in presidential elections right now

3)The Republican Party will probably again have a tough primary that produces a flawed nominee (though probably not as bad as Trump)

4)I don't see Clinton getting a strong primary challenge from the left; they will keep their powder dry for 2024.

5)I don't think that one party holding the presidency for 12 straight years is actually that much of a disadvantage, especially when the other party often had control of Congress. The only compelling recent evidence we have is Bush I's defeat, but I think that had more to do with other factors.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2016, 09:03:43 PM »

Who knows. We're due for a recession and I expect the next president will have to take the blame for it. If Hillary is in office and the gop doesn't nominate a disaster, they should win
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Frodo
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2016, 11:10:13 PM »

I don't think so - if the Republicans nominate someone like Ryan or Haley, Clinton could lose. Especially if there's a recession before 2020 (and there very well may be).

Agreed,

If d a recession happens combined foreign policy problems and the inevitable Clinton corruption occur on her watch then it's very possible she'll lose.

Besides we are way overdue for a 1 termer anyways. Hillary also wouldn't be winning this year if the GOP had actually nominated a coherent sane candidate anyways.

Then again in 2020 if she faces someone in the mold of CHUMP or Cruz she'll prob win again.

Or the next recession hits after she wins her second term (2021 or 2022), paving the way for a Republican to take back the White House in 2024.

That guess is as good as yours, though a mite bit inconvenient for those of you who would prefer to see Hillary one-termed. 
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Suburbia
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« Reply #22 on: August 10, 2016, 01:05:03 PM »

If she can keep her administration baggage free, and free of any errors, yes, she can be reelected. She could beat Cruz, Steve King or Sessions. She may lose to Haley, Thune, Blackburn, or Kasich.
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hopper
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« Reply #23 on: August 10, 2016, 03:25:33 PM »

If she can keep her administration baggage free, and free of any errors, yes, she can be reelected. She could beat Cruz, Steve King or Sessions. She may lose to Haley, Thune, Blackburn, or Kasich.
Nah I don't see Blackburn adding the necessary amount of minority voters to our current coalition that we need to win a Presidential Election. I don't she would be inclusive enough like the like Haley, Thune and Kasich would be.
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Medal506
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2016, 09:31:08 PM »

Knowing the G.O.P, when next election comes, they'll nominate Ted Cruz or some other Reactionary-Lite Conservative and lose. Come 2024 though, I think they'll nominate someone more moderate, but still a Conservative. Can't put a name on that person, because they're likely still in the state legislature.

If they nominate Ted Cruz he'll destroy Hillary Clinton in a landslide like this

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