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Author Topic: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump +12  (Read 2044 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: August 08, 2016, 08:33:55 am »

37% Trump (R)
25% Clinton (D)
16% Johnson (L)
1% Stein (G)

21% Other/Undecided

Link.
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2016, 08:38:54 am »

#BattlegroundUtah was fun while it lasted
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2016, 08:39:25 am »

While Trump's lead increases by 3 points from their last poll, Trump is only up 1 from 36%. Clinton is down 2 (from 27%) and Johnson is up 6 (from 10%).

(Generic undecided is down 4 from 18, and Stein is down 1 from 2%. Other has fallen from 8% to 7%.)
« Last Edit: August 08, 2016, 10:59:41 am by Sorenroy »Logged
Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2016, 08:40:00 am »

That's a huge undecided number. I have to imagine that turnout is going to plunge compared to 2012.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2016, 08:57:19 am »

Weird election season when a 12 point R lead in Utah is seen as a good poll for the R candidate!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2016, 09:19:18 am »

I love how funny the Utah graph looks.

Img
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2016, 09:42:38 am »

Still LOL. 37% is pretty weak, Drumpf is vulnerable in UT.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2016, 09:43:36 am »

While Trump's lead increases by 3 points from their last poll, Trump is only up 1 from 36%. Clinton is down 2 (from 27%) and Johnson is up 3 (from 13%).

(Generic undecided is down 4 from 18, and Stein is down 1 from 2%. Other has fallen from 8% to 7%.)

Johnson's up 6% actually, 13% was a different poll.
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RI
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2016, 09:44:36 am »

Dan Jones always has lots of undecideds.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2016, 12:09:42 pm »

Demagogue Don can't even crack 40% in a state Romney won with 73% of the vote. Sad!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2016, 12:41:19 pm »

Not a good number for Mia Love.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2016, 12:58:04 pm »

Clinton should :

Concentrate on critical swing states of FL, OH, NC and IA.
Secure lean-D states of PA and NV.
If numbers continue to look good, think about attacking GA and AZ.
Forget about UT, MO and IN.
(PS: CO, VA and NH look to be likely-D, but might need some "attention.")
« Last Edit: August 08, 2016, 12:59:43 pm by ProudModerate2 »Logged
Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2016, 01:28:43 pm »

#BattlegroundUtah was fun while it lasted
Dan Jones has been junk this cycle. If they have Trump with a big lead, you might as well call it a battleground state or a huge Trump lead, but anything other than Trump +12.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2016, 05:58:38 pm »

Quote
Weird election season when a 12 point R lead in Utah is seen as a good poll for the R candidate!

Even better, when he's getting only 37 percent of the vote in Utah!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2016, 11:55:15 am »

37% pretty weak for Trump.

This here is an intersting analysis.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2016, 12:10:33 pm »

You could also look at it this way...

Trump: 37%
Other: 31%
Clinton: 25%

A lot of people are going to stay home. I actually don't know if turnout will go up or down this cycle because Utah and Idaho alone are going to see a massive drop. But its 3 months to go and already Trump is looking OK here... (winning is all that matters in the EC, right?)
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Zioneer
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2016, 06:08:00 pm »

As a side note, the poll was done over 3 weeks rather than the traditional shorter time. So I don't know how trustworthy it is. This goes the same for the UT-04 poll, the gubernatorial poll, and the Senate poll, all of which were asked in this same large poll.

Also apparently a lot of the undecideds told Dan Jones that they wanted to just write-in Mitt Romney. I'll have to dig up the tweet where Dan Jones or another pollster mentioned that, but if true, that McMullin guy will have a fun time here.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #17 on: August 15, 2016, 05:49:50 pm »

As a side note, the poll was done over 3 weeks rather than the traditional shorter time. So I don't know how trustworthy it is. This goes the same for the UT-04 poll, the gubernatorial poll, and the Senate poll, all of which were asked in this same large poll.

Also apparently a lot of the undecideds told Dan Jones that they wanted to just write-in Mitt Romney. I'll have to dig up the tweet where Dan Jones or another pollster mentioned that, but if true, that McMullin guy will have a fun time here.

Today on MTP Daily Steve Kornacki said they told him 14% volunteered they would write in Romney. A Romney endorsement of Johnson or McMullin would be a big deal in UT and certainly make it interesting. Without UT, Trump would need to win FL/OH/PA and one other state (probably IA).
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BeTo In DiSaRrAy
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #18 on: August 15, 2016, 10:29:38 pm »

As a side note, the poll was done over 3 weeks rather than the traditional shorter time. So I don't know how trustworthy it is. This goes the same for the UT-04 poll, the gubernatorial poll, and the Senate poll, all of which were asked in this same large poll.

Also apparently a lot of the undecideds told Dan Jones that they wanted to just write-in Mitt Romney. I'll have to dig up the tweet where Dan Jones or another pollster mentioned that, but if true, that McMullin guy will have a fun time here.

Today on MTP Daily Steve Kornacki said they told him 14% volunteered they would write in Romney. A Romney endorsement of Johnson or McMullin would be a big deal in UT and certainly make it interesting. Without UT, Trump would need to win FL/OH/PA and one other state (probably IA).

Does Utah count all write-ins? Apparently Vermont does, which could mean that Bernie could get a few percent there.
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