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  GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7
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Author Topic: GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7  (Read 4203 times)
President Griffin
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« on: August 08, 2016, 08:53:24 am »
« edited: August 08, 2016, 09:02:52 am by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%



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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2016, 08:55:59 am »

And the Senate numbers look legit. Interesting.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2016, 08:57:51 am »

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2016, 08:58:16 am »

Hopefully this poll is accurate, unlike zubat Zogby.
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jimmie
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2016, 08:59:48 am »

I am not shocked at all.

Clinton will win Georgia this November. The demographics and national margin are just right for her in the state. Hopefully in latter elections the GOP hold on state government will crack.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2016, 09:00:10 am »

Clinton getting 12% in North Georgia with 28% undecided. LOL.
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jimmie
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2016, 09:04:36 am »

haha Johnson is splitting the white vote. So ling as Johnson keeps polling well, I see no reason why Clinton can not win Georgia.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2016, 09:06:29 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2016, 09:11:10 am by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

Just added some of the crosstabs to OP:




Clinton getting 12% in North Georgia with 28% undecided. LOL.

To be fair...that has to be way off compared to their other regions; the undecideds are way too high. Not to mention that there's almost no way Trump cracks 80% in any single county (other than maybe Gilmer/Franklin) in their "North Georgia" region, which is shown on the final page of the poll (the two green slivers bordering TN/AL & SC). It's not even 5% of the state's electorate; I guess they defined it this way because they used media markets as a way to break down the state. With such a small sample size, the undecideds being so large isn't surprising.



What's even more incredible is the huge area defined as "Atlanta" (all of the pink)...and the fact that Clinton is leading there by 10. That area includes most of what would be considered "North Georgia", including the vast majority of the heavily-GOP areas of the state by population and all of the northern counties where Trump could possibly hit 80%.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2016, 09:14:00 am »

WOW!! Inspiring!
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2016, 09:15:30 am »

RIP Seriously
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2016, 09:16:22 am »

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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2016, 09:17:06 am »

Interesting...this doesn't seem to be a Dem hack firm. They had Trump +16 in Louisiana back in May and Trump +5 in Florida in early July.
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2016, 09:18:54 am »

Interesting...this doesn't seem to be a Dem hack firm. They had Trump +16 in Louisiana back in May and Trump +5 in Florida in early July.

They're actually a lean-GOP firm. They had Vitter down 4 in their last LA-Gov poll before he lost by 12
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2016, 09:19:20 am »

Future Georgia polls really should do white men/white women splits and white no-college men/white no-college women/white college men/white college women splits.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2016, 09:22:17 am »

Interesting...this doesn't seem to be a Dem hack firm. They had Trump +16 in Louisiana back in May and Trump +5 in Florida in early July.

They're actually a lean-GOP firm. They had Vitter down 4 in their last LA-Gov poll before he lost by 12

Their LA polling toward the end was weird. That last one where JBE was up 4 was released three days after they released one showing JBE up by 15...and one a couple of weeks before that with him up by 20. =/
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2016, 09:34:03 am »

By his standards those aren't bad numbers for Trump with blacks.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2016, 09:40:49 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2016, 09:46:14 am by MohamedChalid »

LOL!!! The Trumpster loses bigly (or big league?). Truly amazing. The second poll where the fake billionaire is way down in GA.

Seriously? won't be happy...
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2016, 09:53:18 am »

LOL!!! The Trumpster loses bigly (or big league?). Truly amazing. The second poll where the fake billionaire is way down in GA.

Seriously? won't be happy...

Nah, according to Seriously this is standard for the Democrats. Nothing to see here, typical polling fluctuation in Georgia.
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dspNY
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2016, 10:01:15 am »

Just added some of the crosstabs to OP:




Clinton getting 12% in North Georgia with 28% undecided. LOL.

To be fair...that has to be way off compared to their other regions; the undecideds are way too high. Not to mention that there's almost no way Trump cracks 80% in any single county (other than maybe Gilmer/Franklin) in their "North Georgia" region, which is shown on the final page of the poll (the two green slivers bordering TN/AL & SC). It's not even 5% of the state's electorate; I guess they defined it this way because they used media markets as a way to break down the state. With such a small sample size, the undecideds being so large isn't surprising.



What's even more incredible is the huge area defined as "Atlanta" (all of the pink)...and the fact that Clinton is leading there by 10. That area includes most of what would be considered "North Georgia", including the vast majority of the heavily-GOP areas of the state by population and all of the northern counties where Trump could possibly hit 80%.

You know GA better than I do obviously. Does that big region they define as Metro Atlanta contain 2/3 of the state's population? That seems to be a lot bigger than other definitions of Metro Atlanta I've seen (Fulton and DeKalb as core Atlanta and the suburbs like Gwinnett and Cobb as the rest of the ATL metro)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2016, 10:09:24 am »

That map is showing the Atlanta media market, which is much larger than any definition of metro Atlanta that I've ever seen.  The metro definition varies, but the most common one is the Census Bureau's Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell MSA , which includes 29 counties: see http://www.metroatlantachamber.com/docs/default-document-library/29-county-msa-map-and-text42913.pdf for a map and list.

The MSA has about 5.7 million people, which is a little over half of the state population.  I'd guess the larger area shown by the media market probably does approach 2/3.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2016, 10:13:14 am »

Holy sh**t
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2016, 10:15:03 am »

Can someone please poll North Carolina? If GA is slight lean Dem, then NC has to be leaning Dem as well, right?

GA is the new NC
NC is the new VA
VA is the new MI.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2016, 10:17:03 am »

With this poll, GA just swung to Clinton on the 538 polls-only forecast.
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« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2016, 10:24:29 am »

Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2016, 10:36:16 am »

Man, Trump is doing terribly in the coastal South. I'm really curious to see PPP's NC poll.
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