Susquehanna: Clinton +10 in PA

[Dr. Arch]

Yeah, Trump needs to find a way to win without PA. 

CA+NY, of course.

[Blair]

buttttt white working class democrats

[dspNY]

Yeah, Trump needs to find a way to win without PA. 

Without CO and VA, that is virtually impossible

[IceSpear]

Yeah, Trump needs to find a way to win without PA. 

I mean, if the election were held today, electoral math is irrelevant since he'll be getting thrashed everywhere. I don't see why PA still isn't the best path for him in a competitive race.

[pbrower2a]

We may see something that we have not seen for a Republican nominee for President since the 1960s: an electoral meltdown in a largely-binary race. National polls so suggest, and statewide polls seem to ratify such, as they appear. Just think of it: a Republican pollster shows Trump up 2 in Missouri.

Is it going to take a poll that suggests that Hillary Clinton is up 2 in Indiana to convince people? I think that we have enough data points already from after the Conventions. We have a variety of polls with results inconsistent with a close Presidential election. 

So far I am looking only at polls from after the Conventions (but allowing three from during the Conventions for states in which Hillary Clinton has practically no chance of winning -- now Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee).

The only big change that I can imagine is that this race becomes a genuine three-way race, one in which someone not Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump gets the electoral votes of at least one state.