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  GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7
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Author Topic: GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7  (Read 4204 times)
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Icefire9
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« Reply #25 on: August 08, 2016, 10:38:17 am »

Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.
Well, in the primaries, Clinton did very well with Southerners (both blacks and whites).  Its not that unlikely that she does have some appeal in the region.
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« Reply #26 on: August 08, 2016, 10:46:36 am »

Can someone please poll North Carolina? If GA is slight lean Dem, then NC has to be leaning Dem as well, right?

GA is the new NC
NC is the new VA
VA is the new MI.

If GA is leaning D, NC has to be likely at the least.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #27 on: August 08, 2016, 11:08:36 am »

Nobody is better at losing than Donald Trump.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #28 on: August 08, 2016, 11:09:52 am »

I don't believe it
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President Griffin
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« Reply #29 on: August 08, 2016, 11:20:06 am »

You know GA better than I do obviously. Does that big region they define as Metro Atlanta contain 2/3 of the state's population? That seems to be a lot bigger than other definitions of Metro Atlanta I've seen (Fulton and DeKalb as core Atlanta and the suburbs like Gwinnett and Cobb as the rest of the ATL metro)

^^^ 64.7% of the state's 2010 population; 66.7% of 2008 vote.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #30 on: August 08, 2016, 11:22:16 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2016, 11:23:58 am by HillOfANight »

Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761532763526860800?lang=en

Republicans have been doing very well in the South, so there's no room for Trump to improve...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/762303397978525696

Also, metro ATL has a highly educated population. The Republicans inside Atlanta voted Rubio strongly.

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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #31 on: August 08, 2016, 11:26:21 am »

Well, time to end the American experiment I guess. We had a good run. Glad I got to be a part of it for 20 years (though not actually).
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #32 on: August 08, 2016, 11:27:32 am »

Would be interesting to see a South Carolina poll too at this point.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #33 on: August 08, 2016, 11:28:51 am »

Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761532763526860800?lang=en

Republicans have been doing very well in the South, so there's no room for Trump to improve...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/762303397978525696

Also, metro ATL has a highly educated population. The Republicans inside Atlanta voted Rubio strongly.



This map would probably explain Trump's support in Nevada as well, along with part of the Clinton trends in CO and VA.
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Holmes
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« Reply #34 on: August 08, 2016, 11:40:55 am »

Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761532763526860800?lang=en

Republicans have been doing very well in the South, so there's no room for Trump to improve...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/762303397978525696

Also, metro ATL has a highly educated population. The Republicans inside Atlanta voted Rubio strongly.



This map would probably explain Trump's support in Nevada as well, along with part of the Clinton trends in CO and VA.

To be fair, that map is as a share of Romney's white voters, but Nevada's college educated population is low compared to the national average. Clinton isn't really improving among whites there like in CO, VA, PA, etc. because of a lack of college educated whites, and Clinton's victory there will be mostly thanks to the African-American, Hispanic and Asian vote.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #35 on: August 08, 2016, 12:16:25 pm »

Love it.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #36 on: August 08, 2016, 12:35:34 pm »

Yeah ok. C-rated pollster in early August and I am supposed to be panicking. Gotcha.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #37 on: August 08, 2016, 12:38:03 pm »

Yeah ok. C-rated pollster in early August and I am supposed to be panicking. Gotcha.
Rasmussen didn't fail you back in 2012, right?
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Special K
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« Reply #38 on: August 08, 2016, 03:46:32 pm »

Gosh, I hope this she wins here.  If Trump takes Georgia, I'll scoop my eyeballs out with a spoon in shame.
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« Reply #39 on: August 08, 2016, 04:54:02 pm »

Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761532763526860800?lang=en

Republicans have been doing very well in the South, so there's no room for Trump to improve...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/762303397978525696

Also, metro ATL has a highly educated population. The Republicans inside Atlanta voted Rubio strongly.



This map would probably explain Trump's support in Nevada as well, along with part of the Clinton trends in CO and VA.

Amazing!

Now I catch onto the narrowness of Clinton leads in Nevada. Badly as Donald Trump is doing with the college-educated white vote, i can see him faring incredibly badly in Colorado and Virginia, giving possible openings to Clinton in Georgia, Arizona, Utah, and Kansas. He could pick up Nevada and ME-02...But he could put Texas at risk.

Formal education makes one less sympathetic to demagogues. Clinton (neither, really) isn't one. Obama, Romney, McCain.... no! Dubya? For all his faults -- no. Not Kerry or Gore. Not Dole. Definitely not the elder Bush. Not really Perot. Reagan? No. Mondale? Certainly not.

Educated voters, whatever their ethnicity, are the dream voters if one can get them. They can vote across regional, religious, and ethnic lines. They vote if they can (that is, if they are citizens). Even if they lack the funds for making donations, they have the time for volunteering for their Parties. If they are stressed for time, then they have funds for making donations. They can hold their own in political conversations as badly-educated people can't.
 
A high level of formal education used to be a good proxy for Republican voting. In 2008 it became a good proxy for Democratic voting.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #40 on: August 08, 2016, 06:01:56 pm »

Interesting. I wonder when RCP is going to show the first Hillary Clinton true lead in their statewide charts.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #41 on: August 08, 2016, 06:07:16 pm »

Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761532763526860800?lang=en

Republicans have been doing very well in the South, so there's no room for Trump to improve...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/762303397978525696

Also, metro ATL has a highly educated population. The Republicans inside Atlanta voted Rubio strongly.



This map would probably explain Trump's support in Nevada as well, along with part of the Clinton trends in CO and VA.

Amazing!

Now I catch onto the narrowness of Clinton leads in Nevada. Badly as Donald Trump is doing with the college-educated white vote, i can see him faring incredibly badly in Colorado and Virginia, giving possible openings to Clinton in Georgia, Arizona, Utah, and Kansas. He could pick up Nevada and ME-02...But he could put Texas at risk.

Formal education makes one less sympathetic to demagogues. Clinton (neither, really) isn't one. Obama, Romney, McCain.... no! Dubya? For all his faults -- no. Not Kerry or Gore. Not Dole. Definitely not the elder Bush. Not really Perot. Reagan? No. Mondale? Certainly not.

Educated voters, whatever their ethnicity, are the dream voters if one can get them. They can vote across regional, religious, and ethnic lines. They vote if they can (that is, if they are citizens). Even if they lack the funds for making donations, they have the time for volunteering for their Parties. If they are stressed for time, then they have funds for making donations. They can hold their own in political conversations as badly-educated people can't.
 
A high level of formal education used to be a good proxy for Republican voting. In 2008 it became a good proxy for Democratic voting.

Bolded relevant section....

Wasn't 2000 the first time in Modern American political history where the Democratic won "knowledge sector workers" that I believe was 10% of the electorate at that time?
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President Griffin
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« Reply #42 on: August 08, 2016, 06:25:47 pm »

Interesting. I wonder when RCP is going to show the first Hillary Clinton true lead in their statewide charts.

Judging by their 5 most recent polls (which is their formula for measurement; they do not include this poll as of now...and it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't, as they seem to be a lot pickier with polls that show Democratic leads than Republican ones), the two oldest polls in that line-up (Fox5 & PPP) would have to fall off and be replaced by two new polls that combined show a Clinton advantage. The three most recent polls (WXIA, WSB & AJC) literally cancel each other out with their results of +4 Clinton, Tie & +4 Trump.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #43 on: August 08, 2016, 06:31:29 pm »

Interesting. I wonder when RCP is going to show the first Hillary Clinton true lead in their statewide charts.

Judging by their 5 most recent polls (which is their formula for measurement; they do not include this poll as of now...and it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't, as they seem to be a lot pickier with polls that show Democratic leads than Republican ones), the two oldest polls in that line-up (Fox5 & PPP) would have to fall off and be replaced by two new polls that combined show a Clinton advantage. The three most recent polls (WXIA, WSB & AJC) literally cancel each other out with their results of +4 Clinton, Tie & +4 Trump.

Considering they included the LA/FL polls from this same pollster, it would be logically inconsistent to not include this one as well. But it's (R)CP so who knows.

Also, as far as I can tell, there is no consistency to how many polls they include in their average. It's completely arbitrary. Considering the PPP poll is from May and the others are from July/August, it should have dropped off already, but again, (R)CP.
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« Reply #44 on: August 08, 2016, 06:55:52 pm »

Strange how this hasn't been added to RCP yet. I think they are a garbage pollster, but RCP used them to hold Trump up in Florida so can't really ignore this result.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #45 on: August 08, 2016, 06:58:23 pm »

I've seen them cherry-pick from individual pollsters before, hence my comments. They may end up adding this one - it seems there is usually a delay or a day or two for some polls. What's weird is that in the past, I've noticed that GOP-friendly polls usually get added right away, while those that are not may be added to the database some days after the fact (presumably to give time for other, less favorable polls to release and minimize the period of time that a Dem-favorable poll might skew the result).
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #46 on: August 08, 2016, 08:06:31 pm »

LMAO, TRUMP should really just give up.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #47 on: August 08, 2016, 09:02:09 pm »

PPP's twitter says that tomorrow's NC poll is a 6-7 on the Dem scale of happiness.  I wonder if that's taking heightened expectations into account. 

Several days ago, that would be something like a 2-3 point Clinton lead.  But given the recent Georgia polls and today's Monmouth national poll, I think an NC poll that would make Dems decently happy but not ecstatic would be more like Clinton +5.
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« Reply #48 on: August 08, 2016, 09:04:58 pm »

PPP's twitter says that tomorrow's NC poll is a 6-7 on the Dem scale of happiness.  I wonder if that's taking heightened expectations into account. 

Several days ago, that would be something like a 2-3 point Clinton lead.  But given the recent Georgia polls and today's Monmouth national poll, I think an NC poll that would make Dems decently happy but not ecstatic would be more like Clinton +5.

Great news!
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« Reply #49 on: August 08, 2016, 09:09:47 pm »

6-7 on Dem scale of happiness by PPP probably means Hillary +4
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