GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7

[dspNY]

[dspNY]

Interesting...this doesn't seem to be a Dem hack firm. They had Trump +16 in Louisiana back in May and Trump +5 in Florida in early July.

They're actually a lean-GOP firm. They had Vitter down 4 in their last LA-Gov poll before he lost by 12

[dspNY]

Just added some of the crosstabs to OP:

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Clinton getting 12% in North Georgia with 28% undecided. LOL.

To be fair...that has to be way off compared to their other regions; the undecideds are way too high. Not to mention that there's almost no way Trump cracks 80% in any single county (other than maybe Gilmer/Franklin) in their "North Georgia" region, which is shown on the final page of the poll (the two green slivers bordering TN/AL & SC). It's not even 5% of the state's electorate; I guess they defined it this way because they used media markets as a way to break down the state. With such a small sample size, the undecideds being so large isn't surprising.



What's even more incredible is the huge area defined as "Atlanta" (all of the pink)...and the fact that Clinton is leading there by 10. That area includes most of what would be considered "North Georgia", including the vast majority of the heavily-GOP areas of the state by population and all of the northern counties where Trump could possibly hit 80%.

You know GA better than I do obviously. Does that big region they define as Metro Atlanta contain 2/3 of the state's population? That seems to be a lot bigger than other definitions of Metro Atlanta I've seen (Fulton and DeKalb as core Atlanta and the suburbs like Gwinnett and Cobb as the rest of the ATL metro)

[dspNY]

6-7 on Dem scale of happiness by PPP probably means Hillary +4

[dspNY]

I'll take it...

Realistically GA is likely only +3-4 Clinton at this time and NC is 5-6% Clinton.

Better to under-perform and over-deliver but likely NC is +7-8 Clinton at this point.

I think GA is tied, maybe Clinton +1 or +2 and NC is Clinton +5