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Author Topic: IA-Suffolk: Trump +1  (Read 1880 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #25 on: August 11, 2016, 05:15:26 pm »

Anyone who thinks Trump will win Iowa is fooling themselves. Iowa is not the new West Virginia.
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« Reply #26 on: August 11, 2016, 07:18:55 pm »

There may be a slow trend for Iowa going to the right. I think age will be the most telling metric in the years to come. It's an aging state and also gets labeled as a "brain drain" state--public schools are pretty good here so a lot of kids who decide to go to college leave the state for school, or go to college here and then move. There's definitely not a fast trend to the R side as some suggest. Honestly, I think if it was Clinton vs. any other republican, Iowa would flip this year. If it had been Sanders vs. any republican, I think the state would have been lean D.

I would think the WDM suburbs wouldn't be friendly to Trump even if it's a republican area? It's more of a Romney/Rubio area. I doubt Trump out performs Romney there.

I still think if it's this close on election day the tie will go to Clinton. Mentioned this in another thread once--if IA-4 (who we can all thank for Steve King) joined another state we'd be lean D Wink
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« Reply #27 on: August 12, 2016, 02:03:42 am »

It's also Trump under 45. McCain and Romney both got within 10, and I can easily see Trump getting 46 in Iowa and losing in a binary race.

In 2008 I saw polls in which Obama had a bare led in such states as North Dakota and South Dakota (let us say 43-41) only to lose. Obama ended up with 46% of the vote, which was not enough.

Iowa is close enough to being a battleground even in a good year for Democrats that one cannot assume that the state will go Democratic. Kerry lost Iowa in 2004, and Gore barely won it in 2000. Could it be that Barack Obama is an unusually-good match for Iowa and Hillary Clinton isn't?   
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