Monmouth National Poll: Clinton +12/+13

[heatcharger]

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/

RV
Clinton 46
Trump 34
Johnson 7
Stein 2

LV
Clinton 50
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 2

[Lyin' Steve]

I'd hate to see what the head-to-head numbers are if she's up 12 with third parties included.

[F_S_USATN]

Down 30 among college educated white women. Thanks for playing Trump

[The Other Castro]

The LV numbers should be the topline.

[MT Treasurer]

This is brutal. Honestly, the only good news for him is that the election is still three months away.

[Xing]

[Holmes]

Down 30 among college educated white women. Thanks for playing Trump

And at 50% in the four way and doing better among LVs than RVs. It seems to be over, even if Trump recovers a bit.

[heatcharger]

The LV numbers should be the topline.

Hmm you're right. A lot of pollsters haven't switched to LV yet though.

[The Other Castro]

This actually lines up more or less with the Georgia +7 poll.

[Ronnie]

!!!!

[Devout Centrist]

This is brutal. Honestly, the only good news for him is that the election is still three months away.

It can always get worse.

[dspNY]

The scarier part for the GOP is that Monmouth was the best pollster in the primaries so they have keyed onto something in the electorate

[Wiz in Wis]

♫ Nearer my God to thee ♫

[Devout Centrist]

This poll took place from the 4th to the 7th. Not only has Clinton's bounce sustained now for over a week, but it appears Trump's Khan remarks have hurt him greatly.

[The Other Castro]

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

26% Republican
39% Independent
35% Democrat

47% Male
53% Female

25% 18-34
25% 35-49
28% 50-64
21% 65+

71% White
13% Black
11% Hispanic
 5% Asian/Other

[dspNY]

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

26% Republican
39% Independent
35% Democrat

47% Male
53% Female

25% 18-34
25% 35-49
28% 50-64
21% 65+

71% White
13% Black
11% Hispanic
 5% Asian/Other

Electorate a little on the young side so that gives a couple of extra points to Clinton but the other demographics are spot on

[The Other Castro]

RV/LV numbers:

Trump approval is 26-61 (-35) /  28-61 (-33)
Clinton approval is 37-49 (-12) / 42-49 (-7)
Johnson approval is 15-6 (+9) / 17-7 (+10)
Stein approval is 8-7 (+1) for both sets

Pence approval is 33-23 (+10) / 36-25 (+11)
Kaine approval is 31-14 (+17) / 35-15 (+20)

[ProudModerate2]

This poll took place from the 4th to the 7th. Not only has Clinton's bounce sustained now for over a week, but it appears Trump's Khan remarks have hurt him greatly.

As much as people don't want to see it (especially Seriously), there is more in the numbers than just a simple post-convention bounce.
The Khan remarks, and also the fact that people noticed that the RNC was mostly dark and about fear, where the DNC was more about country unity, hope and equal rights.
These other factors have given Hillary about/almost twice the size lead, as one would have normally thought.

[Gass3268]

63% of voters are tired of hearing about Hillary's emails.

Also Trump's favorable among Republicans are awful.

[Holmes]

63% of voters are tired of hearing about Hillary's emails.

Figures, but she needs a better answer. Should probably just say it was a mistake and promise a transparent administration when it comes up at the debate(s).

[dspNY]

Trump only leads by 5 in the reddest states (those that voted GOP by more than 12% in 2012). Interestingly, most of Johnson's support comes from those red states, where he gets 12%. This finding indicates a potential #NeverTrump rebellion in Texas and/or a situation where Montana and the Dakotas are seeing a sizable Johnson vote, making them competitive and winnable with a 45-46% plurality.

It could also be an outsized Johnson vote in Utah as well but we have evidence now that Johnson is polling in the high teens there, not 25% or above

[Likely Voter]

Once again Trump's problem is college whites. He is matching Romney with non-college whites and non-whites, but under-performing with the educated whites, especially the women.

SOmething that didn't get talked about a lot last week was Trump's comment about sexual harassment and how if Ivanka was ever harassed he said the solution would be for her to get another job. That just didn't go over well with a lot of women. And the Khan thing and his apparent lack of empathy almost surely is also a factor. 

While in the end Trump may out-perform Romney with the non-college whites, can it ever be enough to make up for college-whites and non-whites?

[Phony Moderate]

Nixon holds the record for the lowest highest approval rating as president (67%). Would either of these two ever get anywhere near that while in the Oval Office?

[HAnnA MArin County]

How polarizing.

[psychprofessor]

I think this poll turned SC blue on the 538 now cast. I like seeing SC blue :-)