New York City mayoral election, 2017 thread

[Suburbia]

I told you that De Blasio faces trouble in the white ethnic outerborough areas of NYC....keep underestimating them. They still exist.

https://datanews.carto.com/builder/234d10e0-985e-11e7-a79f-0ee462b5436c/embed?state=%7B%22map%22%3A%7B%22ne%22%3A%5B40.70756361447181%2C-73.89640331268312%5D%2C%22sw%22%3A%5B40.718932543395056%2C-73.86739253997804%5D%2C%22center%22%3A%5B40.71324832159253%2C-73.88189792633058%5D%2C%22zoom%22%3A16%7D%7D

[The Other Castro]

I told you that De Blasio faces trouble in the white ethnic outerborough areas of NYC....keep underestimating them. They still exist.

https://datanews.carto.com/builder/234d10e0-985e-11e7-a79f-0ee462b5436c/embed?state=%7B%22map%22%3A%7B%22ne%22%3A%5B40.70756361447181%2C-73.89640331268312%5D%2C%22sw%22%3A%5B40.718932543395056%2C-73.86739253997804%5D%2C%22center%22%3A%5B40.71324832159253%2C-73.88189792633058%5D%2C%22zoom%22%3A16%7D%7D

Damn, Bill de Blasio is definitely going to lose his reelection race for Mayor of Staten Island.

[Simfan34]

This election is disappointing. Any questions?

[Badger]

This election is disappointing. Any questions?

Yeah, why is it remotely disappointing?

[Badger]

I told you that De Blasio faces trouble in the white ethnic outerborough areas of NYC....keep underestimating them. They still exist.

https://datanews.carto.com/builder/234d10e0-985e-11e7-a79f-0ee462b5436c/embed?state=%7B%22map%22%3A%7B%22ne%22%3A%5B40.70756361447181%2C-73.89640331268312%5D%2C%22sw%22%3A%5B40.718932543395056%2C-73.86739253997804%5D%2C%22center%22%3A%5B40.71324832159253%2C-73.88189792633058%5D%2C%22zoom%22%3A16%7D%7D

Damn, Bill de Blasio is definitely going to lose his reelection race for Mayor of Staten Island.

In fact, I think he won the Primary on Staten Island rather handedly. Albanese may have picked up more geography, but the areas DeBlasio one have significantly more Democrats and the voters

[The Other Castro]

Marist Poll: De Blasio +47

Bill de Blasio (D) - 65%
Nicole Malliotakis (R) - 18%
Bo Dietl (I) - 8%
Other - 2%
Undecided - 7%

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/910587816169570305

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I told you that De Blasio faces trouble in the white ethnic outerborough areas of NYC....keep underestimating them. They still exist.

https://datanews.carto.com/builder/234d10e0-985e-11e7-a79f-0ee462b5436c/embed?state=%7B%22map%22%3A%7B%22ne%22%3A%5B40.70756361447181%2C-73.89640331268312%5D%2C%22sw%22%3A%5B40.718932543395056%2C-73.86739253997804%5D%2C%22center%22%3A%5B40.71324832159253%2C-73.88189792633058%5D%2C%22zoom%22%3A16%7D%7D

Damn, Bill de Blasio is definitely going to lose his reelection race for Mayor of Staten Island.

In fact, I think he won the Primary on Staten Island rather handedly. Albanese may have picked up more geography, but the areas DeBlasio one have significantly more Democrats and the voters

DeBlasio won Staten Island 56%-37% in the primary, which sounds big, but it was his smallest margin. His second smallest was much more impressive - DeBlasio 72%-18% in Queens.

But I should note that he doesn't need Staten Island to win the GE. He lost it by 44-53 in the 2013 GE but still won the overall election by 73-24.

[Suburbia]

De Blasio corruption unfolds again. The city's economy is fairly decent, but trust in politicians as usual is at a low.

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/de-blasio-donor-100g-check-bought-favors-mayor-article-1.3593656

De Blasio will easily win reelection; the Giuliani/Bloomberg coalition of white ethnic outerborough voters can't get him out, but he will be pretty ineffective nationally for a white progressive big city mayor.

[Progressive]

I think with the latest bad headlines for the mayor, all campaigns are going to push extra hard to churn out votes.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Will DeBlasio get something close to the 49 point margin he got in 2013, or something much smaller?

[NewYorkExpress]

De Blasio corruption unfolds again. The city's economy is fairly decent, but trust in politicians as usual is at a low.

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/de-blasio-donor-100g-check-bought-favors-mayor-article-1.3593656

De Blasio will easily win reelection; the Giuliani/Bloomberg coalition of white ethnic outerborough voters can't get him out, but he will be pretty ineffective nationally for a white progressive big city mayor.

Well, this definitely torpedoes any dreams De Blasio had of running for President in 2020...

As for re-election, he's still favored, but since NY doesn't have early voting, Mallotakis now has a non-zero chance of winning.

[IceSpear]

Mallotakis now has a non-zero chance of winning.

[Progressive]

I think it's possible that de Blasio underperforms but I can see, anecdotally, that the Mayor's race is not as sleepy as it is portrayed in the news. There is heavy campaigning from de Blasio, Malliotakis, Dietl etc. camps and there are also key County Executive, etc. races in Nassau, Westchester, etc. Making it more interesting, the Constitutional Convention ballot proposal means that unions, etc. are mobilizing voters as well.

[Duke of York]

I think it's possible that de Blasio underperforms but I can see, anecdotally, that the Mayor's race is not as sleepy as it is portrayed in the news. There is heavy campaigning from de Blasio, Malliotakis, Dietl etc. camps and there are also key County Executive, etc. races in Nassau, Westchester, etc. Making it more interesting, the Constitutional Convention ballot proposal means that unions, etc. are mobilizing voters as well.

Its still extremely unlikely De Blasio loses. Polls have shown him with 60 percent of the vote. Are there any city council races republicans could gain?

[Progressive]

I think it's possible that de Blasio underperforms but I can see, anecdotally, that the Mayor's race is not as sleepy as it is portrayed in the news. There is heavy campaigning from de Blasio, Malliotakis, Dietl etc. camps and there are also key County Executive, etc. races in Nassau, Westchester, etc. Making it more interesting, the Constitutional Convention ballot proposal means that unions, etc. are mobilizing voters as well.

Its still extremely unlikely De Blasio loses. Polls have shown him with 60 percent of the vote. Are there any city council races republicans could gain?

Yes, there's one in South Brooklyn being heavily contested.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is DeBlasio in danger of losing any borough aside from Staten Island?

[cinyc]

Is DeBlasio in danger of losing any borough aside from Staten Island?

No. deBlasio will win every borough but Staten Island - handily. This isn't Rudy Giuliani's New York City any more.

[Eraserhead]

Will DeBlasio get something close to the 49 point margin he got in 2013, or something much smaller?

It probably won't be quite that large. He'll still get around 2/3 of the vote though.

[cinyc]

Will DeBlasio get something close to the 49 point margin he got in 2013, or something much smaller?

It probably won't be quite that large. He'll still get around 2/3 of the vote though.

The margin could be that large because Deitl and Malliotakis could split the anti-de Blasio vote, though. I expect de Blasio to get around 70% of the vote.

[NewYorkExpress]

Assuming De Blasio wins, which despite the corruption allegations, he still should, I suspect his total percentage will be reduced, as independents partially defect to either Malliotakis or Dietl.

My guess is something like;

 De Blasio 57.5%
Malliotakis 30%
Dietl 12.5%

That's still a very impressive margin of victory.

[Eraserhead]

Will DeBlasio get something close to the 49 point margin he got in 2013, or something much smaller?

It probably won't be quite that large. He'll still get around 2/3 of the vote though.

The margin could be that large because Deitl and Malliotakis could split the anti-de Blasio vote, though. I expect de Blasio to get around 70% of the vote.

What percentages would you guess for the others?

[cinyc]

Will DeBlasio get something close to the 49 point margin he got in 2013, or something much smaller?

It probably won't be quite that large. He'll still get around 2/3 of the vote though.

The margin could be that large because Deitl and Malliotakis could split the anti-de Blasio vote, though. I expect de Blasio to get around 70% of the vote.

What percentages would you guess for the others?

I'm going to guess:
de Blasio 67%
Malliotakis 22%
Dietl 9%
Others 2%

But my predictions are often wildly inaccurate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bump, as this is happening today. I would suggest also using this as the thread to discuss races elsewhere in NY.

[Tintrlvr]

Will DeBlasio get something close to the 49 point margin he got in 2013, or something much smaller?

It probably won't be quite that large. He'll still get around 2/3 of the vote though.

The margin could be that large because Deitl and Malliotakis could split the anti-de Blasio vote, though. I expect de Blasio to get around 70% of the vote.

What percentages would you guess for the others?

I'm going to guess:
de Blasio 67%
Malliotakis 22%
Dietl 9%
Others 2%

But my predictions are often wildly inaccurate.

This seems like a decent prediction to me, although I expect Dietl to do somewhat worse than this (no more than 4-5%) with a percent or two boost to each of de Blasio, Malliotakis and the field.

My polling station was relatively quiet this morning. Also, they have apparently taken down the metal detectors at the high school where I vote some time between this year's primary election and the general election; good news?

[Pyro]

Tossup Election in Westchester County, NY:

County Exec. Rob Astorino going up against NY State Sen. George Latimer.
Astorino is a known Trump ally, recently caught in a corruption scandal.
Latimer is a centrist Dem accused of unpaid property taxes.
This is expected to be a close race following an extremely negative campaign season.