New York City mayoral election, 2017 thread

[Progressive]

Sen. Tony Avella is mulling a bid

[Progressive]

Ohio Gov. John Kasich is endorsing and fundraising for Queens City Councilman Eric Ulrich, who seems likely to run for Mayor in NYC. If Ulrich runs, does the NYC Republicans keep his seat red? They are only 3 NYC Republicans in the City Council (Matteo, Borelli, and Ulrich). Borelli is a Trumpite and probably wanted to serve in Trump's administration, Ulrich wants to be mayor, and Matteo probably wants to be mayor as well someday, maybe in 2017.

http://observer.com/2016/12/john-kasich-fundraises-for-queens-councilmans-mayoral-run/

This will be a swing seat in the City Council. There will probably be a contentious Democratic primary. The district is heavily Italian, with a large Jewish, West Indian (mainly Guyanese) and Latino population. Interesting place.

[Progressive]

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/state-sen-tony-avella-takes-de-blasio-mayoral-race-article-1.2910979?cid=bitly

State Sen. Avella will run in a primary

[Progressive]

It's going to be a Massey vs. Dietl primary (if Dietl gets permitted to be on the ballot--needs 3/5 of GOP chairs to allow it).

If Dietl gets put on the ballot, here's how it's gonna play out:

1. Massey wins Republican votes in Manhattan (heavy wins in the Upper East Side for instance). Not many Republicans, but will be a big chunk of the GOP vote.

Massey likely wins Republican votes in other upper middle class pockets of the City that have some Republicans present like Forest Hills, Queens or the Northwest Bronx.

2. Dietl probably does well in Staten Island and parts of Queens like Middle Village and Maspeth as well as Howard Beach.

Wild cards:

1. Hasidim/Orthodox Jewish voters
2. Black and Latino Republicans in mostly Black or Latino communities--not many Republicans, but in the aggregate will be a chunk of the electorate
3. South Brooklyn mix of Irish, Italian, Jewish communities like Marine Park.

[Progressive]

Petitioning season is over. No one else can access the ballot now. The field is set.

[Progressive]

Why is de la Fuente a Republican all of a sudden?

I don't understand either.

He's looking to have some fun and because he figured it was easier to sneak in a mano a mano against BdB by being the GOP nominee.

[Progressive]

Primary is in less than a month. Anyone think Albanese picking up steam?

[Progressive]

Primary is in less than a month. Anyone think Albanese picking up steam?

Yes. I like him. He's not going to be mayor, he ran for mayor in 1997, 2001, and 2013, but Albanese should run for Congress against Dan Donovan, the former S.I. D.A. who allowed Eric Garner's killer walk free in 2014.

He'll do well in Staten Island and some parts of Brooklyn, but turnout will be very, very low on September 12.

DEB getting so much bad press lately, wouldn't be surprised if he does worse than thought

[Progressive]

I think with the latest bad headlines for the mayor, all campaigns are going to push extra hard to churn out votes.

[Progressive]

I think it's possible that de Blasio underperforms but I can see, anecdotally, that the Mayor's race is not as sleepy as it is portrayed in the news. There is heavy campaigning from de Blasio, Malliotakis, Dietl etc. camps and there are also key County Executive, etc. races in Nassau, Westchester, etc. Making it more interesting, the Constitutional Convention ballot proposal means that unions, etc. are mobilizing voters as well.

[Progressive]

I think it's possible that de Blasio underperforms but I can see, anecdotally, that the Mayor's race is not as sleepy as it is portrayed in the news. There is heavy campaigning from de Blasio, Malliotakis, Dietl etc. camps and there are also key County Executive, etc. races in Nassau, Westchester, etc. Making it more interesting, the Constitutional Convention ballot proposal means that unions, etc. are mobilizing voters as well.

Its still extremely unlikely De Blasio loses. Polls have shown him with 60 percent of the vote. Are there any city council races republicans could gain?

Yes, there's one in South Brooklyn being heavily contested.

[Progressive]

What time do the polls close

9:00pm.

[Progressive]

Not mayoral, but a municipal race. Laura Gillen has won the post of Hempstead Supervisor, the first and only Democrat to hold that post since the 1860s. Hempstead is the largest township in America by population. This is massive.