Monmouth National Poll: Clinton +12/+13

[Ebsy]

It's like a West Wing episode.

[Wells]

Reading between the lines of recent events and polling, I've inferred that Trump is f***ed.

[Holmes]

I think this poll turned SC blue on the 538 now cast. I like seeing SC blue :-)

Yeah, it looks pretty cool, lol.

Partisanship aside, it looks pretty neat seeing the whole eastern seaboard blue(/red).

[psychprofessor]

I think this poll turned SC blue on the 538 now cast. I like seeing SC blue :-)

Yeah, it looks pretty cool, lol.

Partisanship aside, it looks pretty neat seeing the whole eastern seaboard blue(/red).

We can call it the I-95 corridor :-)

[Maxwell]

Wow

[MT Treasurer]

Interestingly enough, there hasn't been much movement in the swing states, but that's likely due to the small sample size (I guess?).

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[Gustaf]

One thing I've been noticing is that in a lot of these polls Party ID seems to signify more of a preference in this election. Republicans are solidly behind Trump and Democrats for Clinton but both do significantly worse with Conservatives/Liberals. Clinton's getting 1/6 of the Conservative vote in this poll which is pretty remarkable.

[Gass3268]

RCP still hasn't put this poll in their average, lol. Sad!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Once again Trump's problem is college whites. He is matching Romney with non-college whites and non-whites, but under-performing with the educated whites, especially the women.

SOmething that didn't get talked about a lot last week was Trump's comment about sexual harassment and how if Ivanka was ever harassed he said the solution would be for her to get another job. That just didn't go over well with a lot of women. And the Khan thing and his apparent lack of empathy almost surely is also a factor.  

While in the end Trump may out-perform Romney with the non-college whites, can it ever be enough to make up for college-whites and non-whites?

Women are also perhaps turned off by a male candidate that has called their female opponent "the devil", "monster", "horrible horrible human being", "unhinged", "not all there", and "took a short-circuit to the brain". And that's just the insults from last week

[Gass3268]

RCP still hasn't put this poll in their average, lol. Sad!

They have added it to their 4 way average. Bummer they didn't test the one-on-one.

[Classic Conservative]

This is only 26% Republican

[Wiz in Wis]

This is only 26% Republican

Sigh... Do we really have to explain weighting to demographics vs weighting to party-self ID?

[Wells]

This is only 26% Republican

Oh, okay. Will you unskew the polls for us?

[Maxwell]

This is only 26% Republican

Oh, okay. Will you unskew the polls for us?

I actually did a little unskewing myself for fun by adjusting the partisan barometers to match the partisan make-up of 2012 (38% Democrats - 32% Republicans - 29% independents) and shockingly it doesn't change at all - it remains a 12 point lead for Clinton among registered voters.

[IceSpear]

Beautiful poll! I'll really start getting excited if we're still seeing polls like this in a few weeks though.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Beautiful poll! I'll really start getting excited if we're still seeing polls like this in a few weeks though.

I'm excited because it means that even if we're in a high period for Clinton, her "natural average" can't be too much lower. Which means it would take a lot to bring her any lower than, say, +5. And if that's the case, it means Trump will be forced to debate, which I image will only lead to a bigger bump for Clinton.

Just imagine if she goes into the first debate at +12 nationally and creams Trump. Places like Missouri, South Carolina, and maybe even Indiana or Texas could seriously be up for grabs if she manages to get to something like +15 or +16.

[Devout Centrist]

Beautiful poll! I'll really start getting excited if we're still seeing polls like this in a few weeks though.

I'm excited because it means that even if we're in a high period for Clinton, her "natural average" can't be too much lower. Which means it would take a lot to bring her any lower than, say, +5. And if that's the case, it means Trump will be forced to debate, which I image will only lead to a bigger bump for Clinton.

Just imagine if she goes into the first debate at +12 nationally and creams Trump. Places like Missouri, South Carolina, and maybe even Indiana or Texas could seriously be up for grabs if she manages to get to something like +15 or +16.

If Trump lost like Mondale in terms of the popular vote, I'd be extremely happy.

[dspNY]

Beautiful poll! I'll really start getting excited if we're still seeing polls like this in a few weeks though.

I'm excited because it means that even if we're in a high period for Clinton, her "natural average" can't be too much lower. Which means it would take a lot to bring her any lower than, say, +5. And if that's the case, it means Trump will be forced to debate, which I image will only lead to a bigger bump for Clinton.

Just imagine if she goes into the first debate at +12 nationally and creams Trump. Places like Missouri, South Carolina, and maybe even Indiana or Texas could seriously be up for grabs if she manages to get to something like +15 or +16.

This 12-13 point margin is about as large a lead as any candidate can get in an environment this polarized IMO. The only possible exception I could see (5% chance at best) is if Trump supporters start to think he is an embarrassment and then the floodgates really open

[dspNY]

I actually played with some of the demographic sliders on 538's swingometer and if Monmouth's subsamples are correct, Clinton would win 423 EVs, largely on the strength of college-educated Republican and right-leaning women defecting en masse from Trump. She would flip NC, GA, AZ, IN and TX

My settings were white college educated, 54% Dem at 75% turnout
White non-college, 63% GOP at 65% turnout
African American, 95% Dem at 60% turnout
Hispanic, 80% Dem at 55% turnout
Asian, 71% Dem at 55% turnout

[Crumpets]

I actually played with some of the demographic sliders on 538's swingometer and if Monmouth's subsamples are correct, Clinton would win 423 EVs, largely on the strength of college-educated Republican and right-leaning women defecting en masse from Trump. She would flip NC, GA, AZ, IN and TX

My settings were white college educated, 54% Dem at 75% turnout
White non-college, 63% GOP at 65% turnout
African American, 95% Dem at 60% turnout
Hispanic, 80% Dem at 55% turnout
Asian, 71% Dem at 55% turnout

Seems like pretty optimistic turnout numbers, but not unrealistic. What would that lead to for overall turnout?

[Sir Mohamed]

Fantastic numbers!

Hillary at 50% in a four-way-race and the Trumpster way under 40% is brutal. Even if he gains ground till November, he almost can’t recover.

[Nyvin]

How can any "Trump reset" possibly recover all this ground??   Have we ever had a candidate recover from such a huge slump???

[dspNY]

How can any "Trump reset" possibly recover all this ground??   Have we ever had a candidate recover from such a huge slump???

Truman in 1948 but that's it in the modern political era

[pbrower2a]

How can any "Trump reset" possibly recover all this ground??   Have we ever had a candidate recover from such a huge slump???

Truman in 1948 but that's it in the modern political era

...and Harry Truman had a reputation for meticulous integrity. Donald Trump has no such reputation.