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November 21, 2019, 02:47:25 pm
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  UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
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Author Topic: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll  (Read 10551 times)
The Other Castro
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« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2016, 10:38:57 am »

CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1

jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #26 on: August 29, 2016, 10:43:40 am »

CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1

jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
How?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #27 on: August 29, 2016, 10:48:31 am »

CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1

jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
How?

As in dumb for trying to discern trends since they seem to be all over the place. Yes they are expected to have swings, but it'd be a lot simpler if we just stuck with an average of normal national polls.
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dspNY
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« Reply #28 on: August 29, 2016, 10:53:18 am »

CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1

jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
How?

As in dumb for trying to discern trends since they seem to be all over the place. Yes they are expected to have swings, but it'd be a lot simpler if we just stuck with an average of normal national polls.
.

Exactly. It's still junky even though my preferred candidate jumped 3 points in one day
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« Reply #29 on: August 29, 2016, 11:03:39 am »

CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1

jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
How?

As in dumb for trying to discern trends since they seem to be all over the place. Yes they are expected to have swings, but it'd be a lot simpler if we just stuck with an average of normal national polls.
As far as I am concerned, it's just another data point. All data points have value.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #30 on: August 29, 2016, 11:13:15 am »

It is cool to see how one day in the sample can really reset a trend.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #31 on: August 29, 2016, 11:25:18 am »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 11:26:49 am by LittleBigPlanet »

CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1

jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
How?

As in dumb for trying to discern trends since they seem to be all over the place. Yes they are expected to have swings, but it'd be a lot simpler if we just stuck with an average of normal national polls.
No, it is indeed dumb to give to much credit to one datapoint, but the poll itself not (if you adjust for house effect).

The same with Pew. It showed that Clinton lost 5 pps. Is it true? No way. Some of this can be explained by noise. But daily polls have smaller sample and get released every day, why the noise is much more obvious [and irritating for those who don't understand how it works].

But it is NORMAL to have noise.

Nate Silver:
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #32 on: August 29, 2016, 11:31:03 am »

BAN THIS TRACKER
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« Reply #33 on: August 30, 2016, 08:41:29 am »

UPI/CVoter Through 8/28 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.1%
Clinton 49.9% (--%)
Trump 46.8% (-0.1%)
Other 3.4% (+0.2%)
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #34 on: August 30, 2016, 08:53:28 am »

Junk!!!111 Monmouth and Pew shows 6% and 5% decrease of Clinton's lead, respectively.
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« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2016, 09:28:23 am »
« Edited: September 01, 2016, 10:15:24 am by Seriously? »

UPI/CVoter Through 8/29 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.7%
Clinton 49.7% (-0.2%)
Trump 47.0% (+0.2%)
Other 3.2% (-0.2%)
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« Reply #36 on: September 01, 2016, 10:15:05 am »

UPI/CVoter Through 8/30 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.8%
Clinton 48.9% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.1% (-0.9%)
Other 5.0% (+1.8%)

Other wins the day!
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« Reply #37 on: September 02, 2016, 08:25:10 am »

UPI/CVoter Through 8/31 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.2%
Clinton 48.3% (-0.6%)
Trump 46.1% (--%)
Other 5.6% (+0.6%)

Other keeps on growing,
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« Reply #38 on: September 05, 2016, 12:50:36 pm »

Catching up over the weekend.

UPI/CVoter Through 9/3 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.9%
Clinton 49.4% (+0.1%)
Trump 45.5% (+0.4%)
Other 5.1% (-0.5%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/2 (7-day rolling average) Clinton+4.2%
Clinton 49.3% (+0.3%)
Trump 45.1% (-0.4%)
Other 5.6% (--%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/1 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.5%
Clinton 49.0% (+0.7%)
Trump 45.5% (-0.6%)
Other 5.6% (--%)

Note: UPI does not release their polling results on weekends.

Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/05/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-edges-out-Donald-Trump-with-385-point-lead/2051473089153/
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2016, 03:27:46 pm »

The race seems to be stabilizing, if you believe this poll. I'm skeptical, but Clinton head by 4 or 5 is a reasonable result of where things are.
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« Reply #40 on: September 06, 2016, 09:11:18 am »

UPI/CVoter Through 9/4 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton 48.6% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Other 5.0% (-0.1%)
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dspNY
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« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2016, 01:32:51 pm »

UPI/CVoter Through 9/4 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton 48.6% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Other 5.0% (-0.1%)

That one day where Clinton jumped 3 points in a day dropped off the survey so it is still good to see a Clinton lead here. Even though I think all the trackers are junk this is probably the least junky
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« Reply #42 on: September 06, 2016, 01:35:48 pm »

UPI/CVoter Through 9/4 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton 48.6% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Other 5.0% (-0.1%)

That one day where Clinton jumped 3 points in a day dropped off the survey so it is still good to see a Clinton lead here. Even though I think all the trackers are junk this is probably the least junky
My guess is the plausible MOE right now is somewhere between the CNN/ORC Trump+2 and Clinton +5. This poll falls in line with those numbers.
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« Reply #43 on: September 07, 2016, 12:45:54 pm »

UPI/CVoter Through 9/5 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.0%
Clinton 48.1% (-0.5%)
Trump 46.1% (-0.4%)
Other 5.8% (+0.8%)
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #44 on: September 07, 2016, 01:37:03 pm »

UPI/CVoter Through 9/5 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.0%
Clinton 48.1% (-0.5%)
Trump 46.1% (-0.4%)
Other 5.8% (+0.8%)
Oh my. Undecided surging.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #45 on: September 07, 2016, 02:47:31 pm »

At this point, millions of people will either decide they sre not going to vote or do a coin toss.

Actually- here's one mental exercise- who has the most downside risks? Would you want to be responsible for that?
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« Reply #46 on: September 08, 2016, 10:37:49 am »

UPI/CVoter Through 9/6 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.4%
Trump 47.2% (+1.1%)
Clinton 46.8% (-1.3%)
Other 6.0% (+0.2%)

Trump takes the lead back.
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« Reply #47 on: September 10, 2016, 10:45:11 pm »

UPI/CVoter Through 9/7 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.0%
Trump 47.7% (+0.5%)
Clinton 46.7% (-0.1%)
Other 5.6% (-0.4%)

Better late than never. UPI finally got around to this update today. Didn't include the 9/8 results, which will likely come on Monday.
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« Reply #48 on: September 11, 2016, 12:11:22 pm »
« Edited: September 12, 2016, 12:46:07 pm by Seriously? »

UPI/CVoter Through 9/8 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.1%
Trump 48.2% (+0.5%)
Clinton 46.1% (-0.6%)
Other 5.7% (+0.1%)

UPI added an extra day lag to their results. Odd. In any event, Trump gains and they're releasing on weekends now.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/11/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-widens-lead-over-Hillary-Clinton-to-2-points/4831473579817/

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« Reply #49 on: September 12, 2016, 12:53:01 pm »

UPI/CVoter Through 9/11 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.9%
Trump 48.7% (-0.4%)
Clinton 45.8% (+0.5%)
Other 5.5% (-0.1%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/10 (7-day rolling average) Trump +3.8%
Trump 49.1% (+0.9%)
Clinton 45.3% (-0.8%)
Other 5.6% (-0.1%)

*The change for 9/10 is based on 9/8.

UPI never released 9/9.  It's somehow missing in their PDF except in graphical form. In any event, we'll get it eventually and they are now completely caught up with the other trackers with no lag.
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