UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/12 (7-day rolling average) Trump +3.2%
Trump 48.9% (+0.2%)
Clinton 45.7% (-0.1%)
Other 5.4% (-0.1%)

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/13 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.8%
Trump 47.9% (-1.0%)
Clinton 47.1% (+1.4%)
Other 5.0% (-0.4%)

Good news for Hillary!

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/14 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.0%
Trump 47.8% (-0.1%)
Clinton 46.8% (-0.3%)
Other 5.4% (+0.4%)

[KingSweden]

Other surging!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump holds lead over Hillary Clinton for 11th day, Sept. 17, 2016 at 8:00 AM   

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/15 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.6%
Trump 47.6% (-0.2%)
Clinton 47.0% (+0.2%)
Other 5.4% (--%)

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/16 (7-day rolling average) TIE
Trump 47.4% (-0.2%)
Clinton 47.4% (+0.4%)
Other 5.2% (-0.2%)

Someone needs to kick the UPI Bot for more information. The poll release today is now lagged by 2-3 days.

Hillary technically leads by .04%, but I am not going there. One decimal place is bad enough.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/20/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-reclaims-slight-lead-over-Donald-Trump/6381474380177/

[Ebsy]

Trump falling like a rock in the UPI/Cvoter tracker. Not good!

[Wiz in Wis]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/18 (7-day rolling average)Clinton + 1.2%
Clinton 48.0% (+0.6%)
Trump 46.8% (-0.6%)
Other 5.3% (+0.1%)

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/21/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-holds-118-lead-over-Donald-Trump/2301474469318/

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/18 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.2
Clinton 48.0% (+0.6%)
Trump 46.8% (-0.8%)
Other 5.3% (+0.2%)


UPI/CVoter Through 9/17 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.6% (+0.2%)
Clinton 47.4% (--%)
Other 5.1% (-0.1%)

They caught up today with a 2-day release. Wiz got the second day. Adding 9/17 for documentation purposes.

Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/21/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-holds-118-lead-over-Donald-Trump/2301474469318/?spt=hts&or=1

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/25 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.7%
Clinton 47.8% (-0.8%)
Trump 47.1% (+0.9%)
Other 5.1% (-0.2%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/24 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 48.5% (+0.1%)
Trump 46.2% (-0.5%)
Other 5.3% (+0.4%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/23 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.7%
Clinton 48.4% (-0.6%)
Trump 46.7% (+0.6%)
Other 4.9% (--)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/22 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.9%
Clinton 49.0% (-0.2%)
Trump 46.1% (+0.3%)
Other 4.9% (-0.1%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/21 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.4%
Clinton 49.2% (+1.1%)
Trump 45.8% (-1.4%)
Other 5.0% (+0.3%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/20 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.9%
Clinton 48.1% (-0.6%)
Trump 47.2% (+0.6%)
Other 4.7% (-0.2%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/19 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.0%
Clinton 48.6% (+0.6%)
Trump 46.6% (-0.2%)
Other 4.9% (-0.4%)

First UPI release in nearly a week. Thanks to Wiz in Wisconsin for helping me clean this up.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-in-virtual-tie-heading-into-first-debate/8181474896561/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20160925_National_1.pdf

[Wiz in Wis]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/25 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.2
Clinton 47.8% (-0.3%)
Trump 47.1% (+1.0%)
Other 5.3% (-1.0%)


UPI/CVoter Through 9/24 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Clinton 47.5% (--)
Clinton 46.1% (--)
Other 6.3% (--)

First UPI release in nearly a week. They do not have the PDF attached, so I do not have the other numbers for the days missing in the tracker. If someone comes across it, please let me know.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-in-virtual-tie-heading-into-first-debate/8181474896561/

Post has some topline math issues... not to be a dick about it, but thought you should know.

[Wiz in Wis]

Link for updates from last week:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20160925_National_1.pdf

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/25 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.2
Clinton 47.8% (-0.3%)
Trump 47.1% (+1.0%)
Other 5.3% (-1.0%)


UPI/CVoter Through 9/24 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Clinton 47.5% (--)
Clinton 46.1% (--)
Other 6.3% (--)

First UPI release in nearly a week. They do not have the PDF attached, so I do not have the other numbers for the days missing in the tracker. If someone comes across it, please let me know.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-in-virtual-tie-heading-into-first-debate/8181474896561/

Post has some topline math issues... not to be a dick about it, but thought you should know.

You're right. They reported it wrong and I botched the rest. I'll correct. Thanks for the link.

[Gass3268]

CVOTER now does a 50 state poll thing as well. Go onto 538 for the numbers.

[afleitch]

CVOTER now does a 50 state poll thing as well. Go onto 538 for the numbers.

Where else

[Seriously?]

CVOTER now does a 50 state poll thing as well. Go onto 538 for the numbers.

Where else

.pdf embedded in the UPI release.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-state-polls-Donald-Trump-ahead-of-Hillary-Clinton-in-Electoral-College/3941474908310/

[Sorenroy]

CVOTER now does a 50 state poll thing as well. Go onto 538 for the numbers.

They don't seem that bad. Decent sample sizes (even in places like DC, Wyoming and Vermont), but missing third parties. Might account for their Utah numbers (66-28).

[Seriously?]

I created a .jpg off of a spreadsheet that I collected with the 50-state data and posted it on a separate thread here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=246721.0

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/27 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton 47.9% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.7% (--%)
Other 4.5% (-0.4%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.7% (+0.6%)
Clinton 47.5% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/28/UPICVoter-Hillary-Clinton-regains-slight-lead-in-first-post-debate-poll/8801475069632/

Marginal movement post-debate. Slight net Trump of about 0.5%. Not really worth talking about.

[Wiz in Wis]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/27 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton 47.9% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.7% (--%)
Other 4.5% (-0.4%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.7% (+0.6%)
Clinton 47.5% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/28/UPICVoter-Hillary-Clinton-regains-slight-lead-in-first-post-debate-poll/8801475069632/

Marginal movement post-debate.

It would be unlikely to be that big a shift anyways... but even if we did just extrapolate that shift times 7 days (assuming the shift is constant across all days and doesn't grow/shrink), then we'd expect that Clinton gets a 2.8% bump - all things being equal (which is not at all likely). A small shift towards Clinton fits in with the conventional wisdom and poll structure. Of course, none of this takes into account the days that drop off either. Clinton had a relatively good day 7 days ago, so any gains may be muted by those days dropping off.

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/27 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton 47.9% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.7% (--%)
Other 4.5% (-0.4%)

UPI/CVoter Through 9/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.7% (+0.6%)
Clinton 47.5% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/28/UPICVoter-Hillary-Clinton-regains-slight-lead-in-first-post-debate-poll/8801475069632/

Marginal movement post-debate.

It would be unlikely to be that big a shift anyways... but even if we did just extrapolate that shift times 7 days (assuming the shift is constant across all days and doesn't grow/shrink), then we'd expect that Clinton gets a 2.8% bump - all things being equal (which is not at all likely). A small shift towards Clinton fits in with the conventional wisdom and poll structure. Of course, none of this takes into account the days that drop off either.

Not really, technically it was Clinton +0.5% on Sunday. I really don't expect to see much of a bump either way other than statistical noise, which is what this is looking like at this point.

Clinton does have a few positive +3 and +2 days coming off the cycle shortly.

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 9/29 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.0%
Trump 49.3% (+0.2%)
Clinton 47.3% (+0.1%)
Other 3.4% (-0.3%)

1236 LV; September 23-29, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 9/28 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.9%
Trump 49.1% (+1.4%)
Clinton 47.2% (-0.7%)
Other 3.7% (-0.7%)

1234 LV; September 22-28, 2016

Source: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3117876-UPI-CVoter-29-Sept-2016.html#document/p1

Trump regains the lead.

[Seriously?]

UPI/CVoter Through 10/2 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.5%
Trump 49.4% (+0.4%)
Clinton 46.9% (-0.6%)
Other 3.7% (+0.2%)

1285 LV; September 26-October 2, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 9/28 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.5%
Trump 49.0% (--%)
Clinton 47.5% (-0.3%)
Other 3.5% (+0.3%)

1288 LV; September 25-October 1, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 9/30 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.2%
Trump 49.0% (-0.3%)
Clinton 47.8% (+0.5%)
Other 3.2% (-0.2%)

1223 LV; September 24-30, 2016

If this tracker is to be believed, Trump gained about 2 points post debate.

Sourcing: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3118148-US2ndOct-Report.html#document/p1

[Wiz in Wis]

UPI/CVoter Through 10/2 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.5%
Trump 49.4% (+0.4%)
Clinton 46.9% (-0.6%)
Other 3.7% (+0.2%)

1285 LV; September 26-October 2, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 9/28 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.5%
Trump 49.0% (--%)
Clinton 47.5% (-0.3%)
Other 3.5% (+0.3%)

1288 LV; September 25-October 1, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 9/30 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.2%
Trump 49.0% (-0.3%)
Clinton 47.8% (+0.5%)
Other 3.2% (-0.2%)

1223 LV; September 24-30, 2016

If this tracker is to be believed, Trump gained about 2 points post debate.

Sourcing: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3118148-US2ndOct-Report.html#document/p1

At minimum, the methodologies of these polls clearly appear to be creating divergent results.