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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
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Author Topic: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll  (Read 10157 times)
Seriously?
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« Reply #75 on: October 05, 2016, 12:29:23 pm »
« edited: October 05, 2016, 08:32:53 pm by Seriously? »

UPI/CVoter Through 10/4 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.6%
Trump 47.8% (-0.7)
Clinton 47.2% (-0.1)
Other 5.0% (+0.8 )

1,274 LV; September 28-October 4, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 10/3 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.2%
Trump 48.5% (-0.9)
Clinton 47.3% (+0.4)
Other 4.2% (+0.5)

1,275 LV; September 27-October 3, 2016

Source: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3123324-US4thOct-Report.html#document/p1
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Seriously?
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« Reply #76 on: October 09, 2016, 12:22:19 am »

UPI/CVoter Through 10/4 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.0%
Clinton 47.7% (+0.4)
Trump  46.7% (-0.7)
Other 5.6% (+0.2 )

1,250 LV; September 30-October 6, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 10/5 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.1%
Trump 47.4% (-0.4)
Clinton 47.3% (+0.1)
Other 5.4% (+0.4)

1,257 LV; September 29-October 5, 2016
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #77 on: October 10, 2016, 10:05:44 am »
« Edited: October 10, 2016, 10:09:24 am by Ozymandias »

Note only 3 of the 7 surveyed days are post-pgate:

UPI/CVoter Through 10/9 (7-day rolling average)
Clinton +5.5%
Clinton 49.9% (+1.7)
Trump  44.4% (-1.5)
Other 5.7% (-0.2)

1,350 LV; October 3-October 9, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 10/8 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 48.2%
Trump  45.9%
Other 5.9%

1,325 LV; October 2-October 8, 2016

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/10/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-pulls-into-5-point-lead-over-Donald-Trump/7301476105358/
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #78 on: October 10, 2016, 10:09:44 am »

what a glorious surge!
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dspNY
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« Reply #79 on: October 10, 2016, 10:15:26 am »

Note only 3 of the 7 surveyed days are post-pgate:

UPI/CVoter Through 10/9 (7-day rolling average)
Clinton +5.5%
Clinton 49.9% (+1.7)
Trump  44.4% (-1.5)
Other 5.7% (-0.2)

1,350 LV; October 3-October 9, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 10/8 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 48.2%
Trump  45.9%
Other 5.9%

1,325 LV; October 2-October 8, 2016

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/10/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-pulls-into-5-point-lead-over-Donald-Trump/7301476105358/

I think all the trackers are junky but that kind of movement makes sense after what came out about Trump
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #80 on: October 10, 2016, 10:22:22 am »

Hillary is grabbing this tracker by the p***y!
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #81 on: October 10, 2016, 10:27:26 am »

UPI likely underestimates Democratic margin because of this.

"Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated."

Trump supporters are far more likely to take self-participant polls, as evidenced by their overzealous will to spam click on Trump's first debate poll.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #82 on: October 10, 2016, 10:39:23 am »

UPI likely underestimates Democratic margin because of this.

"Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated."

Trump supporters are far more likely to take self-participant polls, as evidenced by their overzealous will to spam click on Trump's first debate poll.

Results are still weighted by demo and then they apply an LV screen, so it's probably a minimal effect, if at all.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #83 on: October 10, 2016, 11:09:36 am »

Their latest map isn't implausible:

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Mallow
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« Reply #84 on: October 10, 2016, 11:14:17 am »

Their latest map isn't implausible:

Not only is it not implausible, it's probably one of the top five most likely maps. Perhaps even top three.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #85 on: October 11, 2016, 10:10:59 am »

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/11/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-gains-as-Donald-Trump-continues-to-slide/2801476186502/?spt=su&or=btn_tw

UPI/CVoter Through 10/10 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +6.1%
Clinton 50.2% (+0.3)
Trump  44.0% (-0.3)
Other 5.7%

1,367 LV; October 4-October 10, 2016
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #86 on: October 11, 2016, 10:20:14 am »

oh look seriously? stopped updating this poll, SAD!
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #87 on: October 11, 2016, 10:26:05 am »

oh look seriously? stopped updating this poll, SAD!

they don't always post daily updates so it's easy to miss a day or two
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #88 on: October 11, 2016, 10:26:35 am »

Some of this is after the "crotch-grabbing" news; some of this is after the second debate. The rest is from before both.

We can see a Trump collapse appearing more slowly in a polling aggregate that contains seven days than in the short-term polls that Atlantic Monthly and NBC/Wall Street Journal showed.

In view of the acidic editorial of George F. Will denouncing Donald Trump for acting more like a Third World demagogue than like any Presidential nominee from one of the two main Parties that any of us can remember, most of us can intuit a Trump collapse.  
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Seriously?
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« Reply #89 on: October 11, 2016, 10:45:42 am »

oh look seriously? stopped updating this poll, SAD!
I am allowed to have a life you know. I have been out of town. Any suggestion of bias in not posting something for ONE DAY is an absolute joke.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #90 on: October 12, 2016, 11:35:11 am »

UPI/CVoter Through 10/11 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +6.4%
Clinton 50.6% (+0.4)
Trump  44.2% (+0.1)
Other 5.2% (-0.5)

1,367 LV; October 5-October 11, 2016
[/quote]
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #91 on: October 12, 2016, 11:39:37 am »

Their latest map isn't implausible:


Obama12+NC would be a great map, but I think we can go further.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #92 on: October 14, 2016, 12:48:23 pm »

UPI/CVoter Through 10/11 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.0%
Clinton 50.2% (-0.2)
Trump  45.2% (+0.5)
Other 4.5% (-0.3)

1,482 LV; October 7-October 13, 2016
[/quote]

UPI/CVoter Through 10/12 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.8%
Clinton 50.5% (-0.1)
Trump  44.7% (+0.5)
Other 4.8% (-0.4)

1,402 LV; October 6-October 12, 2016
[/quote]
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nirvanayoda
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« Reply #93 on: October 14, 2016, 12:50:24 pm »

UPI/CVoter Through 10/11 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.0%
Clinton 50.2% (-0.2)
Trump  45.2% (+0.5)
Other 4.5% (-0.3)

1,482 LV; October 7-October 13, 2016

UPI/CVoter Through 10/12 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.8%
Clinton 50.5% (-0.1)
Trump  44.7% (+0.5)
Other 4.8% (-0.4)

1,402 LV; October 6-October 12, 2016
[/quote]

[/quote]

Something looks wrong with your +/- numbers.
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cinyc
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« Reply #94 on: October 24, 2016, 06:12:07 pm »

10/17-10/23: Clinton+3.07
Clinton 49.46%
Trump 46.39%
Others 4.15%

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #95 on: October 24, 2016, 06:42:12 pm »

10/17-10/23: Clinton+3.07
Clinton 49.46%
Trump 46.39%
Others 4.15%



The decimals...<gasp>...the decimals...
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cinyc
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« Reply #96 on: October 24, 2016, 06:43:38 pm »

10/17-10/23: Clinton+3.07
Clinton 49.46%
Trump 46.39%
Others 4.15%



Not just tenths... hundredths!  The champion of decimals.
The decimals...<gasp>...the decimals...
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cinyc
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« Reply #97 on: October 27, 2016, 02:46:58 pm »
« Edited: October 28, 2016, 12:21:31 pm by cinyc »

10/19-10/25: Clinton +2.86
Clinton 49.38%
Trump 46.52%
Others 4.10%

The 10/18-24 sample was Clinton +2.41.
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mencken
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« Reply #98 on: October 27, 2016, 07:13:54 pm »

Why are the state breakdowns all of a sudden missing from 538's database?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #99 on: October 27, 2016, 07:44:38 pm »

Why are the state breakdowns all of a sudden missing from 538's database?
They weren't actually polls, just models.
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