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| | |-+  FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton +1 in FL, +4 in OH, +10 in PA
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton +1 in FL, +4 in OH, +10 in PA  (Read 1482 times)
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« on: August 09, 2016, 01:48:06 pm »
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FL: Clinton 46 – Trump 45 (+1)  
OH: Clinton 49 – Trump 45 (+4)
PA: Clinton 52 – Trump 42 (+10)

FL: Clinton 43 - Trump 43 - Johnson 6 - Stein 3 (Tie)
OH: Clinton 44 - Trump 42 - Johnson 8 - Stein 3 (Clinton +2)
PA: Clinton 48 - Trump 39 - Johnson 7 - Stein 3 (Clinton +9)

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2371
« Last Edit: August 09, 2016, 02:15:16 pm by TN volunteer »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2016, 01:49:11 pm »
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If Trump loses PA, it's over for him.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2016, 01:49:43 pm »
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Ouch and Quinnipiac has had a GOP lean this cycle.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2016, 01:49:56 pm »
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FL: Clinton 46 – Trump 45
OH: Clinton 49 – Trump 45
PA: Clinton 52 – Trump 42

https://twitter.com/samsteinhp/status/763081941134565376

PA is clearly gone.  FL seems oddly competitive, but then again, this is Q-poll, so probably still a bit Trump friendly.

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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2016, 01:51:17 pm »
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If Q is confirming Trump down by about 10 in PA, I don't see any way that he wins.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2016, 01:52:37 pm »
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For Context
FL: Clinton 46 – Trump 45 - Was Clinton 39 – Trump 42 (4 pt swing)
OH: Clinton 49 – Trump 45 - Was Clinton 41 – Trump 41 (4 pt swing)
PA: Clinton 52 – Trump 42 - Was Clinton 41 - Trump 43 (12 pt swing)

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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2016, 01:53:34 pm »
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Clinton should actually leading in Florida by wider margins.
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2016, 01:56:34 pm »
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Clinton should actually leading in Florida by wider margins.

QU has been pretty accurate and Clinton-friendly in FL the past. It's the PA numbers that are really devastating for him. He needs to find a second path to get to 270 that doesn't include PA ASAP.
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2016, 01:56:42 pm »
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https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/763085018163970052

this is Quinnipiac's first survey using a likely voter model in these states. Past were all registered voters
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2016, 02:00:12 pm »
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Wow.
These numbers look good.
I was hoping for a bigger +Clinton number for FL, but that's fine.
She should spend more time and resources in Florida, though.

PS: Penn is looking more and more out-of-reach, for our orange-haired clown.
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2016, 02:01:33 pm »
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Here the numbers with Johnson and Stein

PA
Clinton (D) 48% (+9)
Trump (R) 39%
Johnson (L) 7%
Stein (G) 3%

OH
Clinton (D) 44% (+2)
Trump (R) 42%
Johnson (L) 8%
Stein (G) 3%

FL
Clinton (D) 43% (Tie)
Trump (R) 43%
Johnson (L) 7%
Stein (G) 3%
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2016, 02:03:12 pm »
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https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/763085018163970052

this is Quinnipiac's first survey using a likely voter model in these states. Past were all registered voters

I wonder if that helps or hurts her... this year, LV screen has been unusually pro-Dem.
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2016, 02:04:34 pm »
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Clinton should actually leading in Florida by wider margins.

Q is in the field for 2 weeks, right? FL was probably close (or lean Trump) according to their methodology around the conventions, whereas some polls showed Clinton with a clear lead in PA even before the conventions began, hence the clear lead there if Q also picked up on that.
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2016, 02:13:13 pm »
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Can we see some crosstabs, specifically Florida
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2016, 02:15:41 pm »
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Can we see some crosstabs, specifically Florida

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2371

Ironically, the race tabs in FL look right, but they are over-sampling whites in both OH and PA by a few points compared to 2012. Of course, in all 3 states, they still estimate the electorate to be AT LEAST as white as 2012... none of these samples has oversampled minorities.
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2016, 02:17:28 pm »
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Well, they finally have Pennsylvania to the left of Ohio, which is good.

Anyway, the PA and FL polls match what other pollsters have found in these states.  Even if the Florida results doesn't make sense given what we've seen in Georgia...  Whatever, I'll buy it.
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2016, 02:19:04 pm »
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But angry trend R WCWs in Scranton and Southwest Pennsylvania hate the old hag, junk poll! Pennsylvania IS in play.

(That was my Seriously? moment).

Non-troll post: Another beautiful set of polls considering how Quinnipiac has been one of her worst pollsters out there. I think she's up by more in Florida, but if she's up by 10 in PA, this election is in the bag.
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« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2016, 02:21:20 pm »
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I would say Donnie has to move on from PA but he has nowhere else to move on to. He is toast.
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2016, 02:22:59 pm »
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Florida is a mess to poll with all the Latino and transplants with cell only. I think Clinton is likely up 6-8 if GA is in play.
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2016, 02:25:55 pm »
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Florida is a mess to poll with all the Latino and transplants with cell only. I think Clinton is likely up 6-8 if GA is in play.

Yeah, Q has been junk all cycle in states with high minorities (specifically Hispanics). They regularly were the most competitive for Sanders.

Yet overall these numbers are pretty good. I'll take a Clinton +1 in FL any day and that PA number is beautiful.
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« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2016, 02:39:14 pm »
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Q has Clinton ahead in all three states? That's a shock. Also the path for Trump is almost nonexistent without any of PA, CO or VA. That puts Clinton at 269
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2016, 03:10:53 pm »
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Clinton should actually leading in Florida by wider margins.

QU has been pretty accurate and Clinton-friendly in FL the past. It's the PA numbers that are really devastating for him. He needs to find a second path to get to 270 that doesn't include PA ASAP.

That's the catch. He doesn't have one.
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« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2016, 03:44:53 pm »
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Can we see some crosstabs, specifically Florida

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2371

Ironically, the race tabs in FL look right, but they are over-sampling whites in both OH and PA by a few points compared to 2012. Of course, in all 3 states, they still estimate the electorate to be AT LEAST as white as 2012... none of these samples has oversampled minorities.
But just stop it...

This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey
sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey
participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to
recent Census or American Community Survey data using a sample balancing procedure to
match the demographic makeup of the population
by county, gender, age, education and
race. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect.
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2016, 03:59:47 pm »
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Can we see some crosstabs, specifically Florida

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2371

Ironically, the race tabs in FL look right, but they are over-sampling whites in both OH and PA by a few points compared to 2012. Of course, in all 3 states, they still estimate the electorate to be AT LEAST as white as 2012... none of these samples has oversampled minorities.
But just stop it...

This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey
sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey
participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to
recent Census or American Community Survey data using a sample balancing procedure to
match the demographic makeup of the population
by county, gender, age, education and
race. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect.


Stop what? I am just pointing out that these polls are NOT oversampling minorities.
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2016, 04:52:52 pm »
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The most beautiful about this poll is that very few Trump supporters actually, well, support Trump. I mean, granted, it's a similar situation for Clinton, but the numbers are GIGANTIC on the Trump side (26-61 in OH).
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