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| | | | |-+  IA/OH/PA-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +4/tied in IA, +5/+4 in OH, +11/+9 in PA
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Author Topic: IA/OH/PA-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +4/tied in IA, +5/+4 in OH, +11/+9 in PA  (Read 3010 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
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« on: August 09, 2016, 04:01:35 pm »

Iowa: Clinton 41 - Trump 37  (Clinton +4)
Ohio: Clinton 43 - Trump 38 (Clinton +5)
Pennsylvania:  Clinton 48 - Trump 37 (Clinton +11)

Iowa: Clinton 35 - Trump 35 - Johnson 12 - Stein 6 (TIE)
Ohio: Clinton 39 - Trump 35 - Johnson 12 - Stein 4 (Clinton +4)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 45 - Trump 36 - Johnson 9 - Stein 3 (Clinton +9)
 
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-trump-midwest-battlegrounds-n626541
« Last Edit: August 09, 2016, 04:08:21 pm by TN volunteer »Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2016, 04:02:07 pm »

Dominating!
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2016, 04:02:14 pm »

Ayy lmao
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Green Line
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2016, 04:02:21 pm »

The election is over.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2016, 04:02:34 pm »

Likely D PA. This election is over... for now.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2016, 04:02:56 pm »

Welp.
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2016, 04:03:22 pm »

Clinton starting to blow Trump out in Pennsylvania. Ohio and Iowa are also nice but I wish she were closer to 50
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Ronnie
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2016, 04:03:45 pm »

Hmm, it seems like IA and OH might sharply trend R this year.  Interesting.
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Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2016, 04:05:01 pm »

I can't keep count but looks like Hillz will win PA by 10+ points.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2016, 04:05:18 pm »

Hmm, it seems like IA and OH might sharply trend R this year.  Interesting.
It will probably mostly have to do with shifts in the white high school educated vote.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2016, 04:05:40 pm »

When the 2016 presidential race is expanded to four candidates - including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein - Clinton and Trump are tied at 35 percent each in Iowa, with Johnson at 12 percent and Stein at 6 percent. (Last month in the state, Clinton and Trump were tied in the four-way horserace at 37 percent.)

In Ohio, Clinton gets the support of 39 percent of registered voters, Trump gets 35 percent, Johnson gets 12 percent and Stein gets 4 percent. (It was Clinton 38 percent, Trump 35 percent last month.)

And in Pennsylvania, it's Clinton at 45 percent, Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 3 percent. (The numbers are nearly identical to what they were before the conventions last month.)
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2016, 04:07:17 pm »

Hmm, it seems like IA and OH might sharply trend R this year.  Interesting.
I think this isn't so much a trend as inelasticity.  Notice that even her PA number is about her average lead.  Clinton is maxing out in a lot of the swing states, and much of the movement we're seeing is in more Republican states.  If she's really up like 5 points in Georgia, making it close in AZ, MO, etc.  Then the national margin makes sense.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2016, 04:11:10 pm »

RIP Trump
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2016, 04:17:38 pm »

I find it really hard to believe that Johnson/Stein are pulling between 15-20% in November.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2016, 04:22:39 pm »

I find it really hard to believe that Johnson/Stein are pulling between 15-20% in November.

I cannot fathom 6% of Iowans voting for that batsh**t crazy lunatic.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2016, 04:24:59 pm »

I find it really hard to believe that Johnson/Stein are pulling between 15-20% in November.

I cannot fathom 6% of Iowans voting for that batsh**t crazy lunatic.

I mean, Nader got just over 2% in 2000... have a hard time thinking Stein would triple that.
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2016, 04:25:09 pm »

Third party numbers are crazy high for swing states. I have to believe they'll come down at some point.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2016, 04:25:24 pm »

OH and PA results are about what you'd expect, but Iowa does surprise me, even though it has been among Trump's best swing states.  

Beside the fact that Trump's demeanor just doesn't seem like it fits with the state, Iowa has been pretty consistent since 1992 in voting approximately 1-2 points more Dem than the nation.  Is it really about to vote 4-6 points more R than the country?
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2016, 04:27:26 pm »

I just hope Clinton wins PA by 4-5 so that Toomey can get re-elected.
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2016, 04:32:21 pm »

Weird that Iowa is that close (in the 4-way), but I do remember Iowa trending toward Obama in the fall. Pennsylvania is looking long gone for Trump, which would be the end of his hopes of victory. Ohio's looks like it'll be to the right of the nation, but right now, it's looking pretty good for Hillary.
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« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2016, 04:46:45 pm »

I think Virginia is the new bellweather - it has the mix of demographics that fit with the nation as a whole and will probably be close to the national popular vote.

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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2016, 04:50:36 pm »

rofl lmao Pennslyvania.

BUT TRUMP'S GONNA FLIP IT
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2016, 05:02:52 pm »

Luzerne county and the Reagan Democrats will flip PA for Trump.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2016, 05:15:42 pm »

Zombie Reagan Democrats will rise from the grave and vote in droves for Trump, who has destroyed Reagan style conservatism, because... greatness?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2016, 05:20:40 pm »

Very nice !
My main fear is IA. Hope Hillary can hold this state.
Things look good right now for Clinton in OH, but this state may swing towards R as election day nears (probably be a true toss-up state).
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