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Author Topic: IA/OH/PA-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Grassley +10, Portman +5, McGinty +4  (Read 1116 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: August 09, 2016, 04:04:52 pm »

Iowa: Grassley (R, inc.) 52 - Judge (D) 42
Ohio: Portman (R, inc.) 48 - Strickland (D) 43
Pennsylvania: McGinty (D) 48 - Toomey (R, inc.) 44

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-trump-midwest-battlegrounds-n626541
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2016, 04:06:13 pm »

I didn't realize how bad a candidate Strickland was.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2016, 04:06:51 pm »

Well,
Portman is clearly ahead right now, but I still have high hopes!!!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2016, 04:08:34 pm »

RIP Toomey
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2016, 04:09:44 pm »

That Portman and Toomey are invincible is probably one of Atlas' worst hot takes.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2016, 04:10:35 pm »

That Portman and Toomey are invincible is probably one of Atlas' worst hot takes.
Regarding Portman, for the moment, they are right.

But that can change!!!
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2016, 04:21:31 pm »

Wow, Pennsylvania has been getting more Dem in polls. I wonder if there's extra residual post-convention bump in Pennsylvania (the host state)? Toomey is still overperforming Trump, but by way less than he needs to. I consider that race Tilt D at the moment, Ohio is Lean R.
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2016, 04:30:12 pm »

Marist: Clinton + 10 / McGinty + 4 --> Toomey overperforming Trump by 6.
Susquehanna: Clinton + 9 / McGinty + 2 --> Toomey ov. by 7.
Franklin: Clinton + 9 / McGinty + 1 --> Toomey ov. by 8.
PPP: Clinton + 4 / Toomey + 1 --> Toomey ov. by 5.

AVERAGE: Toomey overperforms Trump by 6.5 points.
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2016, 04:30:48 pm »

Wow, Pennsylvania has been getting more Dem in polls. I wonder if there's extra residual post-convention bump in Pennsylvania (the host state)? Toomey is still overperforming Trump, but by way less than he needs to. I consider that race Tilt D at the moment, Ohio is Lean R.

Yeah, an event that clogs up traffic and is a burden isn't going to help win you any voters.
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2016, 04:34:47 pm »

My, how things change. I remember when Strickland was leading in most polls, and Toomey was up by double digits. These numbers are more in line with what I initially thought would happen. Ohio's probably Lean R, for now, but it's hard not to see McGinty as a modest favorite, especially since she'll probably be ahead in the Q poll as well (which had Hillary up 10 in PA.)
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2016, 04:35:04 pm »

I figured this would happen in PA, recent polls have been giving McGinty the edge. I think McGinty wins in November.
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2016, 04:42:27 pm »

Strickland behind, but not out.

He has failed to united Democrats so far (around 77%), so a +5 Clinton would should put him over the top.
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2016, 04:43:09 pm »

Strickland behind, but not out.

He has failed to united Democrats so far (around 77%), so a +5 Clinton would should put him over the top.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2016, 05:09:50 pm »

My, how things change. I remember when Strickland was leading in most polls, and Toomey was up by double digits. These numbers are more in line with what I initially thought would happen. Ohio's probably Lean R, for now, but it's hard not to see McGinty as a modest favorite, especially since she'll probably be ahead in the Q poll as well (which had Hillary up 10 in PA.)
Yeah, a bit stunning how the tables have turned.
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2016, 05:58:59 pm »

But Atlas told me Toomey was invincible and McGinty was unelectable!

Honestly though, Toomey would probably be close to doomed if Sestak was the nominee. He still caught a huge break.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2016, 06:21:07 pm »

That Portman and Toomey are invincible is probably one of Atlas' worst hot takes.

It really is.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2016, 06:23:06 pm »

That Portman and Toomey are invincible is probably one of Atlas' worst hot takes.

It really is.

The Rubio hype is slightly worse.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2016, 06:23:56 pm »

That Portman and Toomey are invincible is probably one of Atlas' worst hot takes.

It really is.

The Rubio hype is slightly worse.

Yeah, we all know that Murphy is an unbeatable titan.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2016, 06:36:26 pm »

That Portman and Toomey are invincible is probably one of Atlas' worst hot takes.

It really is.

The Rubio hype is slightly worse.

Yeah, we all know that Murphy is an unbeatable titan.

Murphy might be an overrated opportunist, but he's not as bad or hyped up as Rubio.
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2016, 10:06:06 pm »

That Portman and Toomey are invincible is probably one of Atlas' worst hot takes.

It really is.

Yeah, it's ridiculous. 
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