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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll  (Read 11920 times)
Seriously?
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« on: August 09, 2016, 05:59:13 pm »
« edited: October 11, 2016, 11:00:19 pm by Seriously? »

Current
2-way (Change from 10/6) Clinton +7.8
Clinton            44.6% (+2.3%)
Trump             36.8%  (-1.7%)
Other                8.6%  (-1.1%)
Refused             6.4%  (+0.1%)  
Would Not Vote  3.6%  (+0.5%)

2,539 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

4-way (change from 10/6) Clinton +7.2
Clinton                       44.3% (+2.7%)
Trump                        37.1% (-0.6%)
Johnson                      5.9%   (-2.6%)
Stein                          2.1%   (+0.2%)
Don't Know/Refused      5.8%   (-0.2%)  
Other                          2.3%   (-0.6%)
Won't Vote                  2.5%   (+1.0%)

2,359 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

Word of caution here, more than 1/2 of the poll is from 10/10 only (a double-debate poll).

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day

First tracked poll for this thread
2-way Clinton +7.3%
Clinton                       42.1%
Trump                        34.8%
Other                          11.8%
Don’t Know/Refused     8.0%
Wouldn’t Vote              3.8%

1,154 LV (August 4-8, 2016)

4-way Clinton +6.2%
Clinton                       40.5%
Trump                        34.3%
Johnson                      7.7%
Stein                           2.2%
Don’t Know/Refused     8.3%
Other                          4.3%
Wouldn’t Vote              2.7%

1,154 LV (August 4-8, 2016)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2016, 02:00:40 pm »

According to this writeup:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSKCN10L1JT

"nearly one fifth" of Republicans in this poll said that Trump should drop out of the race, and another 10% said they weren't sure if he should.
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michelle
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2016, 02:04:00 pm »

Just out of curiosity how does "Wouldn't Vote" get through a likely voter screen with these guys? Are these folks really undervoting POTUS in Reuters' mind?

It's because they're junk.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2016, 05:13:46 pm »
« Edited: August 12, 2016, 05:43:11 pm by Seriously? »

2-way (% change from 8/8) Clinton +5.6%
Clinton            41.2% (-0.9%)
Trump             35.6% (+0.8%)
Other              10.6% (-0.7%)
Refused           8.7% (+0.7%)
Wouldn’t Vote  3.9% (+0.1%)

1,116 LV (August 7-11, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/8) Clinton +5.2%
Clinton                       40.5% (--%)
Trump                        35.3% (+1.0%)
Johnson                      7.2% (-0.5%)
Stein                           2.5% (+0.3%)
Don’t Know/Refused     8.1% (-0.2%)
Other                          3.4% (-0.8%)
Wouldn’t Vote              3.1% (+0.4%)

1,115 LV (August 7-11, 2016)

Note: Rounding 40.5 to 41 and 35.3% down to 35 creates a the +6 4-way margin, margin in 4-way is 5.2% with decimals.

Likewise, rounding 41.2 down to 41 and rounding 35.6 up to 36 creates +5 in 2-way, even though margin is 5.6% with decimals.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2016, 05:28:30 pm »

According to this writeup:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSKCN10L1JT

"nearly one fifth" of Republicans in this poll said that Trump should drop out of the race, and another 10% said they weren't sure if he should.


I wonder how many Democrats would say Clinton should drop out just cause?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2016, 12:20:21 pm »

8/15 release. Clinton up slightly from 8/11 release.

2-way (% change from 8/11) Clinton +6.2%
Clinton            41.4% (+0.2%)
Trump             35.2% (-0.4%)
Other              10.7% (--%)
Refused           8.2% (-0.5%)
Wouldn’t Vote  3.6% (+0.7%)

1,132 LV (August 10-15, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/11) Clinton +6.0%
Clinton                       40.4% (-0.1%)
Trump                        34.4% (-0.9%)
Johnson                      8.1% (+0.9%)
Stein                           2.2% (-0.3%)
Don’t Know/Refused     7.7% (-0.4%)
Other                          3.2% (-0.2%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4.1% (+1.0%)

1,132 LV (August 10-15, 2016)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2016, 01:36:41 pm »

Current
2-way (% change from 8/15) Clinton +5%
Clinton            41% (--%)
Trump             36% (+1%)
Other              10% (-1%)
Refused           9% (+1%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4% (--%)

1,049 LV (August 12-17, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/15) Clinton +4%
Clinton                       39% (-1%)
Trump                        35% (+1%)
Johnson                      9% (+1%)
Stein                           3% (+1%)
Don’t Know/Refused      8% (--%)
Other                          4% (+1%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4% (--%)

1,049 LV (August 12-17, 2016)

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_8.17_.16_.pdf

Note: Polling Explorer has not been updated yet. I don't have the decimal track, I will change once those numbers are available.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2016, 01:42:58 pm »

So the race is closing a bit.  It's now been about 10 days since Trump said anything crazy and all of the major news stories since 8/10 or so have been a net negative for Dems.  It's interesting how quickly the tied/tilt R fundamentals kick in once Trump acts normal for a little while.  Of course, he will probably throw it all away with an off-the-wall debate performance.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2016, 02:02:47 pm »

So the race is closing a bit.  It's now been about 10 days since Trump said anything crazy and all of the major news stories since 8/10 or so have been a net negative for Dems.  It's interesting how quickly the tied/tilt R fundamentals kick in once Trump acts normal for a little while.  Of course, he will probably throw it all away with an off-the-wall debate performance.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.
There's definitely a regression to pre-convention levels. You can see it in the USC tracker. Trump enthusiasm is almost matching Clinton's at this point. Also, with a lot of these R/D/I breakdowns, the levels of non-support by partisans is similar between Clinton and Trump.

Once these RV go the way of the dodo bird, which should be in the next few weeks, It will be a 3-5 point race again.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2016, 02:10:52 pm »

So the race is closing a bit.  It's now been about 10 days since Trump said anything crazy and all of the major news stories since 8/10 or so have been a net negative for Dems.  It's interesting how quickly the tied/tilt R fundamentals kick in once Trump acts normal for a little while.  Of course, he will probably throw it all away with an off-the-wall debate performance.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.
There's definitely a regression to pre-convention levels. You can see it in the USC tracker. Trump enthusiasm is almost matching Clinton's at this point. Also, with a lot of these R/D/I breakdowns, the levels of non-support by partisans is similar between Clinton and Trump.

Once these RV go the way of the dodo bird, which should be in the next few weeks, It will be a 3-5 point race again.

Its funny seeing you cling to the junk daily tracking polls most of us have written off.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2016, 02:41:50 pm »

So the race is closing a bit.  It's now been about 10 days since Trump said anything crazy and all of the major news stories since 8/10 or so have been a net negative for Dems.  It's interesting how quickly the tied/tilt R fundamentals kick in once Trump acts normal for a little while.  Of course, he will probably throw it all away with an off-the-wall debate performance.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.
There's definitely a regression to pre-convention levels. You can see it in the USC tracker. Trump enthusiasm is almost matching Clinton's at this point. Also, with a lot of these R/D/I breakdowns, the levels of non-support by partisans is similar between Clinton and Trump.

Once these RV go the way of the dodo bird, which should be in the next few weeks, It will be a 3-5 point race again.

Its funny seeing you cling to the junk daily tracking polls most of us have written off.

LV is quite likely to help Clinton on net, as even Quinnipiac has shown.
Except when the data is reduced to practice and the opposite is true. See Reuters.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2016, 02:45:03 pm »

So the race is closing a bit.  It's now been about 10 days since Trump said anything crazy and all of the major news stories since 8/10 or so have been a net negative for Dems.  It's interesting how quickly the tied/tilt R fundamentals kick in once Trump acts normal for a little while.  Of course, he will probably throw it all away with an off-the-wall debate performance.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.
There's definitely a regression to pre-convention levels. You can see it in the USC tracker. Trump enthusiasm is almost matching Clinton's at this point. Also, with a lot of these R/D/I breakdowns, the levels of non-support by partisans is similar between Clinton and Trump.

Once these RV go the way of the dodo bird, which should be in the next few weeks, It will be a 3-5 point race again.

Its funny seeing you cling to the junk daily tracking polls most of us have written off.

LV is quite likely to help Clinton on net, as even Quinnipiac has shown.
Except when the data is reduced to practice and the opposite is true. See Reuters.

Another junk tracking poll.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2016, 03:12:02 pm »

So the race is closing a bit.  It's now been about 10 days since Trump said anything crazy and all of the major news stories since 8/10 or so have been a net negative for Dems.  It's interesting how quickly the tied/tilt R fundamentals kick in once Trump acts normal for a little while.  Of course, he will probably throw it all away with an off-the-wall debate performance.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.
There's definitely a regression to pre-convention levels. You can see it in the USC tracker. Trump enthusiasm is almost matching Clinton's at this point. Also, with a lot of these R/D/I breakdowns, the levels of non-support by partisans is similar between Clinton and Trump.

Once these RV go the way of the dodo bird, which should be in the next few weeks, It will be a 3-5 point race again.

Its funny seeing you cling to the junk daily tracking polls most of us have written off.

LV is quite likely to help Clinton on net, as even Quinnipiac has shown.
Except when the data is reduced to practice and the opposite is true. See Reuters.

Another junk tracking poll.
And empirical evidence that every LV poll is to the right of RV polls from every pollster.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2016, 12:29:10 pm »

Current
2-way (% change from 8/17) Clinton +8.1%
Clinton            42.3% (+1.2%)
Trump             34.2% (-1.8%)
Other              9.1% (-0.5%)
Refused           10.1% (+1.1%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4.2% (-0.1%)

1,119 LV (August 13-18, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/17) Clinton +7.0%
Clinton                       40.6% (+1.1%)
Trump                        33.6% (-1.8%)
Johnson                      7.1% (+0.1%)
Stein                           2.1% (+--%)
Don’t Know/Refused      9.9% (+1.5%)
Other                          3.4% (-0.3%)
Wouldn’t Vote              3.2% (-0.5%)

1,118 LV (August 13-18, 2016)

It's a significant increase from the 8/17 polling in Hillary's favor.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2016, 12:31:35 pm »

These polling fluctuations are odd indeed.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2016, 12:32:27 pm »

These polling fluctuations are odd indeed.
It's Reuters, they've been like this for months.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2016, 01:50:11 pm »

Reuters is junk and shouldn't be taken seriously.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2016, 01:51:33 pm »

Reuters is junk and shouldn't be taken seriously.

None of the daily tracking polls should be taken seriously.
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2016, 02:01:49 pm »

Weird volatility. I keep following these daily trackers to see if they ever show signs of emerging trends, but I agree, they're all really questionable.
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dspNY
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2016, 02:17:06 pm »

Reuters is junk and shouldn't be taken seriously.

None of the daily tracking polls should be taken seriously.

The debate commission isn't taking them seriously. end thread
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Yank2133
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2016, 02:33:55 pm »

Tracking polls are garbage.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2016, 03:09:22 pm »

Weird, I was told that a Clinton +8 lead was a huge outlier that only Democratic hack polling firms would come up with........
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2016, 03:47:03 pm »

Junk.

that being said, maybe people are laughing at his fake apology.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2016, 04:43:07 pm »

Weird, I was told that a Clinton +8 lead was a huge outlier that only Democratic hack polling firms would come up with........
You're confusing the 2-way numbers with the 4-way numbers, but I digress. And yes, it was a partisan poll.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2016, 07:38:45 pm »

Glorious poll.

Seriously is making krazey proud with his furious unskewing.
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