Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll

[NOVA Green]

This is Reuters people

Thanks Classic Conservative!

Now... are you claiming that Clinton has a narrow lead, or is it tied race, or does Trump have a narrow lead?

Slightly confused about the exact meaning of your post, no hackery intended.

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (Change from 9/15) TIED
Clinton            39.1% (-3.7%)
Trump             39.1%  (+0.6%)
Other                10.0%  (+1.6%)
Refused             7.4%  (-0.5%)  
Would Not Vote  4.4%  (+1.1%)

1,110 LV (September 15 - September 19, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/15) Trump+1.8
Trump                        39.2% (+0.6%)
Clinton                       37.4% (-4.1%)
Johnson                      7.4%   (+0.9%)
Stein                          2.4%   (+0.1%)
Don't Know/Refused    7.5%   (+1.4%)  
Other                          2.9%   (--%)
Won't Vote                  3.2%   (+1.1%)

1,110 LV (September 15 - September 19, 2016)

[dspNY]

Junk

[Ebsy]

She actually increased her support among registered voters so all this movement is due to what I assume are shifts in their likely voter model. Another methodology change for the hallowed Reuters/Ipsos!

[Seriously?]

She actually increased her support among registered voters so all this movement is due to what I assume are shifts in their likely voter model. Another methodology change for the hallowed Reuters/Ipsos!

Of course she did, it's Reuters. Poll to be taken with appropriate grains of salt. My guess though is that it is more a few good Clinton days bouncing out of the poll than anything else.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

She actually increased her support among registered voters so all this movement is due to what I assume are shifts in their likely voter model. Another methodology change for the hallowed Reuters/Ipsos!

Of course she did, it's Reuters. Poll to be taken with appropriate grains of salt. My guess though is that it is more a few good Clinton days bouncing out of the poll than anything else.

Yeah... especially with LA Times moving in the opposite direction

[Fusionmunster]

I still dont get how you get the results, its shows Hillary with a 4 point lead for me.

[sls]

It's showing a 7 pt Clinton lead through 9/19/16:

Clinton:39.4
Trump: 32.4

[Fusionmunster]

It's showing a 7 pt Clinton lead through 9/19/16:

Clinton:39.4
Trump: 32.4

It was like this during the primaries too, the website makes no sense.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

It's showing a 7 pt Clinton lead through 9/19/16:

Clinton:39.4
Trump: 32.4

It was like this during the primaries too, the website makes no sense.

Yeah... apparently Clinton's making yuuge gains with "unlikely" voters. Doesn't make any sense

[bilaps]

Nope, you just don't know how to use it properly

But it could be a lot easier if they simplified it really.

[Fusionmunster]

Nope, you just don't know how to use it properly

But it could be a lot easier if they simplified it really.

Theres a place to click for the match up and a place to put filters on said match up, im using the site just fine.

[bilaps]

Nope, you just don't know how to use it properly

But it could be a lot easier if they simplified it really.

Theres a place to click for the match up and a place to put filters on said match up, im using the site just fine.

Well, if you used it properly you would get Trump +2 like it is. You have to click on a daily tracking rather than weekly which is default, maybe you are making a mistake there.

[Fusionmunster]

Nope, you just don't know how to use it properly

But it could be a lot easier if they simplified it really.

Theres a place to click for the match up and a place to put filters on said match up, im using the site just fine.

Well, if you used it properly you would get Trump +2 like it is. You have to click on a daily tracking rather than weekly which is default, maybe you are making a mistake there.

Im on mobile which could be an issue.

[Seriously?]

Nope, you just don't know how to use it properly

But it could be a lot easier if they simplified it really.

Theres a place to click for the match up and a place to put filters on said match up, im using the site just fine.

Well, if you used it properly you would get Trump +2 like it is. You have to click on a daily tracking rather than weekly which is default, maybe you are making a mistake there.

Im on mobile which could be an issue.

Direct links:

2-way LV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160808-20160921/type/day
2-way RV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/PD1:1/dates/20160808-20160921/type/day

4-way LV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160920/type/day
4-way RV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/PD1:1/dates/20160801-20160919/type/week

If you need to "hack" into a new day, all you need to do on the URL is change the end date (20160919 to 20160921, for example, it's in YYYYMMDD format).

[Wiz in Wis]

Nope, you just don't know how to use it properly

But it could be a lot easier if they simplified it really.

Theres a place to click for the match up and a place to put filters on said match up, im using the site just fine.

Well, if you used it properly you would get Trump +2 like it is. You have to click on a daily tracking rather than weekly which is default, maybe you are making a mistake there.

Im on mobile which could be an issue.

Direct links:

2-way LV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160808-20160921/type/day
2-way RV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/PD1:1/dates/20160808-20160921/type/day

4-way LV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160920/type/day
4-way RV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/PD1:1/dates/20160801-20160919/type/week

If you need to "hack" into a new day, all you need to do on the URL is change the end date (20160919 to 20160921, for example, it's in YYYYMMDD format).

Interestingly, the LV screen in both samples seems to introduce a great deal more "uncertainty" than the RV responses would suggest. How do they determine LV? Self-report?

[Doimper]

It's showing a 7 pt Clinton lead through 9/19/16:

Clinton:39.4
Trump: 32.4

It was like this during the primaries too, the website makes no sense.

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (Change from 9/19) Clinton +6.3
Clinton            42.3% (+3.2%)
Trump             36.0%  (-3.1%)
Other                9.2%  (-0.8%)
Refused             8.4%  (+1.0%)  
Would Not Vote  4.0%  (+0.4%)

1,098 LV (September 18 - September 22, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/19) Clinton +5.2
Clinton                       41.0% (+3.6%)
Trump                        35.9% (-3.3%)
Johnson                      7.3%   (-0.1%)
Stein                          2.1%   (-0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused    8.4%   (+0.9%)  
Other                          2.3%   (-0.6%)
Won't Vote                  2.9%   (-0.3%)

1,098 LV (September 18 - September 22, 2016)

This pretty much was based on one-day's polling. Trump was tied yesterday in the 4-way, the 2-way was +3.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160923/type/day
4-way -
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160923/type/day

[Wiz in Wis]

Current
2-way (Change from 9/19) Clinton +6.3
Clinton            42.3% (+3.2%)
Trump             36.0%  (-3.1%)
Other                9.2%  (-0.8%)
Refused             8.4%  (+1.0%)  
Would Not Vote  4.0%  (+0.4%)

1,098 LV (September 18 - September 22, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/19) Clinton +5.2
Clinton                       41.0% (+3.6%)
Trump                        35.9% (-3.3%)
Johnson                      7.3%   (-0.1%)
Stein                          2.1%   (-0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused    8.4%   (+0.9%)  
Other                          2.3%   (-0.6%)
Won't Vote                  2.9%   (-0.3%)

1,098 LV (September 18 - September 22, 2016)

This pretty much was based on one-day's polling. Trump was tied yesterday in the 4-way, the 2-way was +3.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160923/type/day
4-way -
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160923/type/day

Well... it could be that a very good Trump day dropped at the same time a very good Clinton day was added.

[BlueSwan]

Current
2-way (Change from 9/19) Clinton +6.3
Clinton            42.3% (+3.2%)
Trump             36.0%  (-3.1%)
Other                9.2%  (-0.8%)
Refused             8.4%  (+1.0%)  
Would Not Vote  4.0%  (+0.4%)

1,098 LV (September 18 - September 22, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/19) Clinton +5.2
Clinton                       41.0% (+3.6%)
Trump                        35.9% (-3.3%)
Johnson                      7.3%   (-0.1%)
Stein                          2.1%   (-0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused    8.4%   (+0.9%)  
Other                          2.3%   (-0.6%)
Won't Vote                  2.9%   (-0.3%)

1,098 LV (September 18 - September 22, 2016)

This pretty much was based on one-day's polling. Trump was tied yesterday in the 4-way, the 2-way was +3.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160923/type/day
4-way -
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160923/type/day

That's an unusually massive change in a tracker. I wonder if they changed methodology or something like that. Anyway, I'll take it!

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I don't care what Reuters says, they're still junk.

[Seriously?]

Current
2-way (Change from 9/22) Clinton +6.2
Clinton            44.2% (+1.9%)
Trump             38.0%  (+2.0%)
Other                7.2%  (-2.0%)
Refused             7.2%  (-1.2%)  
Would Not Vote  3.3%  (-0.7%)

1,041 LV (September 22 - September 26, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/22) Clinton +5.2
Clinton                       42.6% (+1.6%)
Trump                        37.4% (+1.5%)
Johnson                      6.6%   (-0.7%)
Stein                          2.2%   (+0.1%)
Don't Know/Refused    7.0%   (-1.4%)  
Other                          2.5%   (+0.2%)
Won't Vote                  1.6%   (-1.3%)

1,041 LV (September 22 - September 26, 2016)

Numbers didn't change that much on the margins (+/- 0.1% in both races), but improved to 6% in 4-way due to rounding. Major candidates gained at expense of undecideds/won't vote/other candidate and Johnson.


Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160927/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160927/type/day

[Person Man]

Basically the dynamic is that Trump has to win the vast majority of fence sitters to win. The good news for him is that they are leaving 3rd party candidates. The bad is that Hillary is doing ok with those that are now getting off. 

[ill ind]

So in the same day we have a Trump +5 poll and a Clinton +6 poll.  Seems that the polling companies don't know what to make of voter turnout/demograpics in the coming election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So in the same day we have a Trump +5 poll and a Clinton +6 poll.  Seems that the polling companies don't know what to make of voter turnout/demograpics in the coming election.

Except both companies are awful.