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  Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll  (Read 11919 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #125 on: September 27, 2016, 11:42:09 pm »

So in the same day we have a Trump +5 poll and a Clinton +6 poll.  Seems that the polling companies don't know what to make of voter turnout/demograpics in the coming election.
The Gravis poll wasn't of registered voters.
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #126 on: September 27, 2016, 11:58:40 pm »

The Gravis poll wasn't of registered voters.

The Gravis one was 890 RVs.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #127 on: September 28, 2016, 11:48:09 am »

Weird. Trump's only getting 38 percent in the 4 way? How can he possible win with that?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #128 on: September 30, 2016, 12:52:54 pm »
« Edited: September 30, 2016, 12:59:25 pm by Seriously? »

Current
2-way (Change from 9/26) Clinton +4.2
Clinton            42.7% (-1.5%)
Trump             38.5%  (+0.5%)
Other                7.7%  (+0.5%)
Refused             7.7%  (+0.5%) 
Would Not Vote  3.3%  (-0.7%)

2,088 LV (September 25-September 29, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/26) Clinton +3.2
Clinton                       41.1% (-1.5%)
Trump                        37.9% (+0.5%)
Johnson                      6.5%   (-0.1%)
Stein                          2.5%   (+0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused    7.4%   (+0.4%)   
Other                          2.2%   (-0.3%)
Won't Vote                  2.4%   (+0.8%)

2,088 LV (September 25-September 29, 2016)

They significantly upped the number of LV, which will make this sample post-debate heavy. They almost doubled the number of likely voters since 9/26.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160930/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160930/type/day
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #129 on: October 04, 2016, 04:31:19 pm »
« Edited: October 04, 2016, 04:32:53 pm by Wiz in Wis »

Clinton now up 5.9 points among LVs, as of Oct 3.... but opening up an 11 point lead among RVs!
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Seriously?
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« Reply #130 on: October 04, 2016, 06:06:41 pm »
« Edited: October 04, 2016, 06:08:23 pm by Seriously? »

2-way (Change from 9/29) Clinton +7.1
Clinton            44.2% (+1.5%)
Trump             37.1%  (-1.4%)
Other                8.9%  (+1.2%)
Refused             6.6%  (-1.1%) 
Would Not Vote  3.2%  (-0.1%)

1,239 LV (September 29-October 3, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/29) Clinton +5.9
Clinton                       42.1% (+1.0%)
Trump                        36.2% (-1.7%)
Johnson                      7.9%   (-1.4%)
Stein                          2.2%   (-0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused      6.6%   (-0.8%)   
Other                          3.1%   (+0.9%)
Won't Vote                  1.9%   (-0.5%)

1,239 LV (September 29-October 3, 2016)

They ramped up the LV for the debate and then ramped them down. Not quite sure why. They basically briefly had a double sample. Reuters has done this before when they've shifted methodologies.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161004/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161004/type/day
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Seriously?
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« Reply #131 on: October 07, 2016, 04:35:01 pm »

Current
2-way (Change from 10/3) Clinton +3.8
Clinton            42.3% (-1.9%)
Trump             38.5%  (+1.4%)
Other                9.7%  (+0.8%)
Refused             6.3%  (-0.3%)  
Would Not Vote  3.1%  (-0.1%)

1,107 LV (October 2-6, 2016)

4-way (change from 10/3) Clinton +3.9
Clinton                       41.6% (-0.5%)
Trump                        37.7% (+1.5%)
Johnson                      8.5%   (+0.6%)
Stein                          1.9%   (-0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused      6.0%   (-0.6%)  
Other                          2.9%   (-0.2%)
Won't Vote                  1.5%   (-0.4%)

1,107 LV (October 2-6, 2016)

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161007/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161007/type/day

Margin at +3 in 2-way due to rounding.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #132 on: October 07, 2016, 04:41:21 pm »

about what i would have thought.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #133 on: October 07, 2016, 04:42:09 pm »

Reuters moves around without any tether to reality.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #134 on: October 11, 2016, 04:45:49 pm »


Clinton + 8
http://live.reuters.com/Event/Election_2016?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social



Trump trails Clinton by 8 points after tape scandal, debate - Reuters/Ipsos poll

By Chris Kahn

Donald Trump has fallen further behind Hillary Clinton and now trails her by 8 points among likely voters, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll, with 1 in 5 Republicans saying his vulgar comments about groping women disqualify him from the presidency.

The national tracking poll was launched after Sunday night's second presidential debate, where Trump was pressed to explain his comments in a 2005 videotape about grabbing women's genitalia. He described the remarks, which first surfaced on Friday, as "locker room" banter and apologized to Americans.

The poll released on Tuesday showed Clinton, the Democratic nominee, had increased her lead over Trump, the Republican nominee, to 8 percentage points on Monday from 5 points last week.

Trump was under pressure during Sunday's debate to restore confidence in his struggling campaign after dozens of lawmakers repudiated him. He hammered Clinton's handling of classified information while serving as secretary of state and referred to her as "the devil." At one point, he said he would jail Clinton if he were president.

Among those who said they watched at least portions of the debate, 53 percent said Clinton won while 32 percent said Trump won. The results fell along partisan lines, however: 82 percent of Democrats felt Clinton won, while 68 percent of Republicans felt that Trump won.

Among likely voters who watched the debate, 48 percent said they supported Clinton while 38 percent supported Trump.
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President Prospero
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« Reply #135 on: October 11, 2016, 04:46:49 pm »

What's Trump going to do if this continues, say literally all the polls are rigged?
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Fargobison
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« Reply #136 on: October 11, 2016, 04:57:01 pm »

Another scientific poll saying Donnie lost the debate. Sad!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #137 on: October 11, 2016, 05:02:14 pm »

Although, I still see this new trend of online and daily tracking polls as "Bunk" in its current form, and basically a relatively new phenomenon that might well become a new norm 10-20 years from now, there is still some relevant data if you look at daily/weekly swings.

This poll does seem to represent what we have seen from more traditional polling outfits and a dramatic swing towards Clinton in the aftermath of the 1st Presidential Debate, although pre-"MeowGate".

For any of y'all not from the West Coast back in the late '80s/early '90s and/or a bit young to be familiar with the term "Bunk" here's a link to Urban Dictionary....

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Bunk
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darthpi
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« Reply #138 on: October 11, 2016, 05:15:34 pm »

What's Trump going to do if this continues, say literally all the polls are rigged?

Probably. He'll say they are all part of the supposedly corrupt, liberal media. Or, as his Twitter fans would put it, (((Media))).
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mark_twain
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« Reply #139 on: October 11, 2016, 05:18:45 pm »


Great result!

By the way, the thread subject does not have the current numbers of the poll...
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Seriously?
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« Reply #140 on: October 11, 2016, 08:39:49 pm »

Current
2-way (Change from 10/6) Clinton +7.8
Clinton            44.6% (+2.3%)
Trump             36.8%  (-1.7%)
Other                8.6%  (-1.1%)
Refused             6.4%  (+0.1%)  
Would Not Vote  3.6%  (+0.5%)

2,539 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

4-way (change from 10/6) Clinton +7.2
Clinton                       44.3% (+2.7%)
Trump                        37.1% (-0.6%)
Johnson                      5.9%   (-2.6%)
Stein                          2.1%   (+0.2%)
Don't Know/Refused      5.8%   (-0.2%)  
Other                          2.3%   (-0.6%)
Won't Vote                  2.5%   (+1.0%)

2,359 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

Back up to a double sample post the second debate.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #141 on: October 12, 2016, 11:13:35 am »

in other news:


Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot (change from last week):
Democrats 46 (+4)
Republicans 36 (-2)
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/786235238783430656?lang=de
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dspNY
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« Reply #142 on: October 12, 2016, 11:19:18 am »

in other news:


Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot (change from last week):
Democrats 46 (+4)
Republicans 36 (-2)
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/786235238783430656?lang=de

Hello Speaker Pelosi if that's true
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #143 on: October 12, 2016, 11:21:05 am »

in other news:


Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot (change from last week):
Democrats 46 (+4)
Republicans 36 (-2)
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/786235238783430656?lang=de

Hello Speaker Pelosi if that's true

At this point, something has to give, anyways.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #144 on: October 12, 2016, 11:21:28 am »

in other news:


Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot (change from last week):
Democrats 46 (+4)
Republicans 36 (-2)
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/786235238783430656?lang=de

Hello Speaker Pelosi if that's true
oh god pls no

At least put someone more competent in the Speaker's chair.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #145 on: October 12, 2016, 11:25:37 am »

in terms of discipline and accomplishment, pelosi is amazingly gifted.....especially compared to boehner or ryan.

but she should go anyway...democrats really need some fresh blood.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #146 on: October 12, 2016, 11:26:31 am »

in other news:


Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot (change from last week):
Democrats 46 (+4)
Republicans 36 (-2)
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/786235238783430656?lang=de

Hello Speaker Pelosi if that's true
oh god pls no

At least put someone more competent in the Speaker's chair.

What?

Pelosi is one of the best Democratic Speakers of all-time. She's is one of the biggest reasons why Obama's first two years are among the most productive first two years of any president.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #147 on: October 21, 2016, 05:51:30 pm »

Clinton 45.5%
Trump 37.0%
Gary Johnson 5.4%
Don't Know/Refused 4.7%
Other 2.9%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1
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Arch
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« Reply #148 on: October 21, 2016, 05:52:19 pm »

Bruh.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #149 on: October 21, 2016, 06:02:59 pm »

Junkity junk junk junk.
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