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February 23, 2020, 10:30:21 pm
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll  (Read 11912 times)
Seriously?
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« Reply #25 on: August 20, 2016, 04:01:04 am »

Glorious poll.

Seriously is making krazey proud with his furious unskewing.
Point me to where I unskewed a thing about this poll? I haven't commented on the numbers at all.

I apologize if I can't take a DEMOCRAT internal poll seriously, however.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #26 on: August 23, 2016, 02:43:53 pm »
« Edited: August 23, 2016, 02:51:56 pm by Seriously? »

Current
2-way (% change from 8/18) Clinton +12.0%
Clinton            44.8% (+2.5%)
Trump             32.8% (-1.4%)
Other              8.1% (-1.0%)
Refused           10.9% (+1.8%)
Wouldn’t Vote  3.4% (-0.8%)

1,115 LV (August 18-22, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/18) Clinton +8.2%
Clinton                       41.4% (+0.8%)
Trump                        33.2% (-0.4%)
Johnson                      6.9% (-0.2%)
Stein                           2.3% (+0.2%)
Don’t Know/Refused    10.8% (+0.8%)
Other                          2.9% (-0.5%)
Wouldn’t Vote              2.6% (-0.6%)

1,115 LV (August 18-22, 2016)
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #27 on: August 23, 2016, 02:45:44 pm »

I will never understand what the hell is going on at Reuters's polling division.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #28 on: August 23, 2016, 02:52:39 pm »

It seems like Clinton's surge back into a huge lead is due to a 20 point increase in support with nonwhite voters, who she now leads Trump by 77 points with.



She's also only trailing among whites by 1 point.
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dspNY
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« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2016, 02:54:07 pm »

I'm just taking all these daily trackers with a grain of salt, whether it is the LA Times showing a tie or Reuters showing Clinton up double digits
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #30 on: August 23, 2016, 02:55:06 pm »

I will never understand what the hell is going on at Reuters's polling division.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #31 on: August 23, 2016, 02:56:28 pm »
« Edited: August 23, 2016, 03:00:52 pm by Seriously? »

RV is now to the right of LV again. Roughly Hillary +2 in the 2-way, a marginal Hillary +0.2 in the 4-way.

Odd poll to say the least. Hillary basically gained 6 points since 8/19.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #32 on: August 23, 2016, 03:03:15 pm »

Lol Reuters
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #33 on: August 23, 2016, 03:04:54 pm »

I'm just taking all these daily trackers with a grain of salt, whether it is the LA Times showing a tie or Reuters showing Clinton up double digits

Yes I agree.
The only thing I can see (somewhat) beneficial from these types of daily polls, is to get a sense of a trend that might be happening. So as long as these polls keep their strange methodology the same (constant), then you can see what is taking place over a week or two-week period, etc.
Thus their display of graphs charting their results, is what you want to concentrate on.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #34 on: August 23, 2016, 03:15:23 pm »

Even LA Times indicates that Trump goes down/Clinton — up.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #35 on: August 23, 2016, 04:02:29 pm »

I was told that the national tracking polls showed Trump with all the momentum though Huh
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Maxwell
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« Reply #36 on: August 23, 2016, 04:08:44 pm »


uh they're bad at what they do?

that's easy to understand. Nobody should be showing a 12 point lead at 45% anymore.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #37 on: August 25, 2016, 12:53:44 pm »
« Edited: August 25, 2016, 01:34:42 pm by Seriously? »

Current
2-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +7%
Clinton            42% (-3%)
Trump             35% (+2%)
Other              9% (+1%)
Refused           9% (-2%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4% (+1%)

1,049 LV (August 20-24, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +3%
Clinton                       39% (-2%)
Trump                        36% (+3%)
Johnson                      7% (--%)
Stein                           3% (+1%)
Don’t Know/Refused    8% (-3%)
Other                          3% (--%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4% (+1%)

1,049 LV (August 20-24, 2016)

Note: Polling Explorer not updated. Don't have decimal track
Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_8.24_.16_.pdf
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #38 on: August 25, 2016, 01:39:54 pm »

Rewters
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Seriously?
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« Reply #39 on: August 25, 2016, 01:48:07 pm »

Yup. Bouncing around like a yo-yo. Putting out releases and not updating the underlying poll... Just wait until tomorrow when the most pro-Hillary day (8/20) rolls off.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #40 on: August 26, 2016, 03:16:13 pm »
« Edited: August 26, 2016, 03:50:49 pm by Seriously? »

Current
2-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +5.3%
Clinton            41.4% (-3.8%)
Trump             36.1% (+3.3%)
Other              8.6% (-0.5%)
Refused           8.6% (-2.3%)
Wouldn’t Vote  5.4% (+2.0%)

1,154 LV (August 21-25, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +2.9%
Clinton                       39.3% (-2.1%)
Trump                        36.4% (+3.2%)
Johnson                      6.5% (-0.4%)
Stein                          2.8% (+0.5%)
Don’t Know/Refused    8.3% (-2.5%)
Other                          2.3% (-0.6%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4.4% (+1.8%)

1,154 LV (August 21-25, 2016)

*Note: 8/22 numbers used for comparison instead of 8/24 because 8/22 was last decimal track release.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #41 on: August 26, 2016, 03:32:53 pm »

RIP HILLARY Cry
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #42 on: August 26, 2016, 03:50:38 pm »

Obama won with 3.5 million votes and won in a landslide. Trump is performing at Romney levels.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #43 on: August 26, 2016, 03:52:34 pm »

Obama won with 3.5 million votes and won in a landslide. Trump is performing at Romney levels.
I wouldn't call a 4% win a landslide.

The Obama 2008 numbers were closer to a landslide vs. McCain at ~7%.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #44 on: August 26, 2016, 03:59:13 pm »

They were awful in the primaries, they are awful now. ALL DAILY TRACKERS ARE AWFUL.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #45 on: August 26, 2016, 04:00:06 pm »

]
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #46 on: August 26, 2016, 04:00:52 pm »

They were awful in the primaries, they are awful now. ALL DAILY TRACKERS ARE AWFUL.
No, you're wrong!
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #47 on: August 26, 2016, 04:05:13 pm »

They were awful in the primaries, they are awful now. ALL DAILY TRACKERS ARE AWFUL.
No, you're wrong!

Am I? Which daily tracker is any good?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #48 on: August 26, 2016, 04:07:38 pm »

They were awful in the primaries, they are awful now. ALL DAILY TRACKERS ARE AWFUL.
No, you're wrong!

Am I? Which daily tracker is any good?
Leave The LA Times Poll Alone!
Instead of arguing about it or ignoring it, adjust for it.

By Nate Silver
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #49 on: August 26, 2016, 04:11:23 pm »
« Edited: August 26, 2016, 04:15:00 pm by Fusionmunster »


If I have to personally adjust 6 points for one candidate in order to correct flawed methodology and to assume im getting more accurate results, the poll is junk.
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