Debate commission: plan for a third podium!

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Nothing set in stone, but they are getting ready for the contingency that Johnson gets near 15%...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/debates-clinton-trump-johnson-stein-226806

[LLR]

At the current moment I don't think it's gonna happen, but as the lottery ads say, "Hey, you never know"

[Maxwell]

they should just let him in. 10% probably should be enough, and he's close to that.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At the current moment I don't think it's gonna happen, but as the lottery ads say, "Hey, you never know"

[ProudModerate2]

I doubt he will reach the threshold to be invited to the debates.

[Vega]

they should just let him in. 10% probably should be enough, and he's close to that.

Considering how the commission is bi-partisan, I don't think they would cut him that slack.

[OwlRhetoric]

Maybe I'd understand loosening up if Johnson had even a handful of polls at 15%, just barely at the mark. So far, that hasn't happened. There is no need to let him in when he continues to poll like 7% three times for every single poll that has him spiking to 12%.

And yeah, just looked, his RCP three way average isn't even 10%.

[defe07]

Nothing set in stone, but they are getting ready for the contingency that Johnson gets near 15%...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/debates-clinton-trump-johnson-stein-226806

Well, I must say that I've been crunching numbers and have looked at Gary's national polling numbers, 3-way and 4-way, and it comes down to the following:

If you add the margin of error of each poll to Gary's numbers, there are 8 which show him with 15% or more!

These are the following polls confirming this:

1) A 4-way CNN poll from 7/13-16 shows Gary got 13%, and the MOE is 3.5%, giving him 16.5%

2) A 3-way IBD/TPP poll from 7/29-8/24 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3.4%, giving him 15.4%

3) A 3-way FOX News poll from 7/31-8/2 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3%, giving him 15%

4) A 3-way CBS News poll from 7/22-24 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 4%, giving him 16%

5) A 3-way CNN poll from 7/13-16 shows Gary got 13%, and the MOE is 3.5%, giving him 16.5%

6) A 3-way CBS News poll from 7/8-12 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3%, giving him 15%

7) A 3-way CBS News poll from 6/9-13 shows Gary got 11%, and the MOE is 4%, giving him 15%

A 3-way FOX News poll from 6/5-8 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3%, giving him 15%

Now, this is all mere speculation after one of the CPD members said there could be some wiggling room for Gary to debate. They may or may not consider the MOE from the polls if it's enough to give Gary an edge. Plus 7 of these 8 polls I just mentioned are big pollsters!

[Desroko]

Nothing set in stone, but they are getting ready for the contingency that Johnson gets near 15%...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/debates-clinton-trump-johnson-stein-226806

Well, I must say that I've been crunching numbers and have looked at Gary's national polling numbers, 3-way and 4-way, and it comes down to the following:

If you add the margin of error of each poll to Gary's numbers, there are 8 which show him with 15% or more!

lol k

[defe07]

I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??

[mencken]

Is Johnson currently taking more votes from Trump than Clinton?

If Yes, there will be three podiums, and the rules will be fudged accordingly
If No, there will be two podiums, and the rules will be strictly enforced

Pretty simple really.

[OwlRhetoric]

Is Johnson currently taking more votes from Trump than Clinton?

If Yes, there will be three podiums, and the rules will be fudged accordingly
If No, there will be two podiums, and the rules will be strictly enforced

Pretty simple really.

What if he's pulling almost equally? My gut says more from Trump in any case, but it's possible he really is just a stand in for "other" with independents who would never vote for either, plus a small segment of non-ideological Berniebots.

I don't agree the Dems on that panel would want to fudge the rules if it seems damaging to Trump. Hopefully the commission is truly bipartisan enough to allow the Republicans on it to block Johnson if he doesn't meet the standard.

[Likely Voter]

I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??

They will be using an average of the last five polls from a specific set of pollsters in the weeks before the debate. So it isn't about getting close to 15% in any poll at any time, but specific polls at a specific time. A person from the CPD indicated that if he was at 14.5% they might consider letting him in.  The polls they will average are probably ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and CNN. Right now he is averaging around 9-10% in those polls.

It is possible he could surge and so it is prudent for them to plan ahead for a potential 3 podium stage. However, right now he is still not really 'close'.

[Maxwell]

Is Johnson currently taking more votes from Trump than Clinton?

If Yes, there will be three podiums, and the rules will be fudged accordingly
If No, there will be two podiums, and the rules will be strictly enforced

Pretty simple really.

There's not really a chance they're going to let him debate anyways, so you can put your "analysis" away.

[IceSpear]

Is Johnson currently taking more votes from Trump than Clinton?

If Yes, there will be three podiums, and the rules will be fudged accordingly
If No, there will be two podiums, and the rules will be strictly enforced

Pretty simple really.

[defe07]

I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??

They will be using an average of the last five polls from a specific set of pollsters in the weeks before the debate. So it isn't about getting close to 15% in any poll at any time, but specific polls at a specific time. A person from the CPD indicated that if he was at 14.5% they might consider letting him in.  The polls they will average are probably ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and CNN. Right now he is averaging around 9-10% in those polls.

It is possible he could surge and so it is prudent for them to plan ahead for a potential 3 podium stage. However, right now he is still not really 'close'.

OK, so let me see if I got this. In order for Johnson to make the debate, he'd need to average 15% in polls from, let's say, CNN, Fox, NBC, CBS and Bloomberg? If he can't average 15% in those five pollsters, he's toast then?

[Vosem]

Fahrenkopf (the chairman of the commission) has suggested that coming within the margin of error might be sufficient for Johnson, though who knows how much control he actually exercises over the commission.

[defe07]

Fahrenkopf (the chairman of the commission) has suggested that coming within the margin of error might be sufficient for Johnson, though who knows how much control he actually exercises over the commission.

I read that, But, considering that the MOE is usually 3%, would the CPD give Johnson a pass if he's polling at, say, 12.5% average in the CNN, CBS, NBC, Fox and Bloomberg polls, for example?

[Speed of Sound]

Clinton's ahead and doesn't want any weird off-chance disruptions in momentum. Trump's people can't think it's very likely that Johnson is taking more from Clinton than himself. There's no way they're gonna let Johnson get on that stage easily.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/741886?section=Newsfront&keywords=Dick-Morris-Gary-Johnson-Libertarian&year=2016&month=08&date=03&id=741886&aliaspath=%2FManage%2FArticles%2FTemplate-Main&oref=www.lp.org

UGH

[Likely Voter]

I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??

They will be using an average of the last five polls from a specific set of pollsters in the weeks before the debate. So it isn't about getting close to 15% in any poll at any time, but specific polls at a specific time. A person from the CPD indicated that if he was at 14.5% they might consider letting him in.  The polls they will average are probably ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and CNN. Right now he is averaging around 9-10% in those polls.

It is possible he could surge and so it is prudent for them to plan ahead for a potential 3 podium stage. However, right now he is still not really 'close'.

OK, so let me see if I got this. In order for Johnson to make the debate, he'd need to average 15% in polls from, let's say, CNN, Fox, NBC, CBS and Bloomberg? If he can't average 15% in those five pollsters, he's toast then?

Essentially yes. The five pollsters they used in 2012 were ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Gallup.  This year I suspect they will use the same list with CNN swapped in for Gallup who are not doing horserace polling for the election

[heatcharger]

Essentially yes. The five pollsters they used in 2012 were ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Gallup.  This year I suspect they will use the same list with CNN swapped in for Gallup who are not doing horserace polling for the election

Any chance it's ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, and Pew Research? Pew seems like the logical replacement to Gallup rather than CNN. Of course Pew actually has to release a poll between now and the debate.

[Likely Voter]

I am just guessing.  But I suspect they will want frequent pollsters and pew is very periodic.  But for sure they will go with live phone polls.  They may lean to only polls doing 4-way polling which (for now) would exclude FOX and CBS who are only doing 3-way.  Other 4-way pollsters include Monmouth, Marist and Bloomberg.  We probably won't know until September

[ElectionsGuy]

http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/741886?section=Newsfront&keywords=Dick-Morris-Gary-Johnson-Libertarian&year=2016&month=08&date=03&id=741886&aliaspath=%2FManage%2FArticles%2FTemplate-Main&oref=www.lp.org

UGH

Thanks for ruining Gary's chances, Dick.