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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Clinton +10/+9 among RV, +15/+13 among LV  (Read 2469 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: August 10, 2016, 12:24:40 pm »

Among registered voters:

46% Clinton (D)
36% Trump (R)

42% Clinton (D)
33% Trump (R)
10% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

Among likely voters:

52% Clinton (D)
37% Trump (R)

47% Clinton (D)
34% Trump (R)
9% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

Done Aug. 4-7
« Last Edit: August 10, 2016, 12:30:05 pm by TN volunteer »Logged

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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2016, 12:25:08 pm »

Among registered voters:

46% Clinton (D)
36% Trump (R)

LVs

52% Clinton (D)
37% Trump (R)
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2016, 12:25:35 pm »

Among registered voters:

46% Clinton (D)
36% Trump (R)

LVs

52% Clinton (D)
37% Trump (R)

Wisconsin is almost Safe D
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2016, 12:26:43 pm »

Ouch.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2016, 12:28:13 pm »

Like I expected, just more evidence that he is toast.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2016, 12:29:17 pm »

Minnesota and Michigan look pretty safe with numbers like this out of WI
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2016, 12:29:45 pm »

Even in a close election I think Trump would lose Wisconsin by a few.  But in this environment, he's gonna get massacred.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2016, 12:30:19 pm »

4 way (LV): Clinton 47, Trump 34, Johnson 9, Stein 3

If Stein is getting 3% in Wisconsin she's doing worse in almost every other swing state.

Plus Trump at 34 in Wisconsin in a 4-way heat and 37 in a head-to-head is LOL hilarious
« Last Edit: August 10, 2016, 12:32:09 pm by dspNY »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2016, 12:32:07 pm »

Looks about right in a 2008-like race, like we have it now.
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2016, 12:34:12 pm »

Yet TNVolunteer insists WI is even possible for Trump. It's not; it's long long gone.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2016, 12:35:37 pm »

Democrats are now more likely to vote than Republicans:

Quote
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll  · 39s40 seconds ago  
Among Republicans and GOP-leaners, 78% say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in Nov. In July, that was 80%. #mulawpoll

Quote
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll  · 46s46 seconds ago  
Among Democrats and Dem-leaners, 81% say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote. In July, it was 78%. #mulawpoll

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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2016, 12:37:17 pm »

That plus PA, VA, CO, and NH is the ballgame.  

Yeah, I don't see him winning now. WI is pretty swingy, but he can't overcome such a deficit, so it looks like he has a better chance in PA. He'd really lose in a landslide if the election were held today.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2016, 12:37:30 pm »

Democrats are now more likely to vote than Republicans:

Quote
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll  · 39s40 seconds ago  
Among Republicans and GOP-leaners, 78% say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in Nov. In July, that was 80%. #mulawpoll

Quote
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll  · 46s46 seconds ago  
Among Democrats and Dem-leaners, 81% say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote. In July, it was 78%. #mulawpoll

Strange that a difference of just 3% among "likelihood to vote" yields a 5% worse result for Trump among LV ...

But I guess it adds up somehow if you do the math.
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2016, 12:37:35 pm »

Clinton favorables: 43/53
Trump favorables: 27/65!!!
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2016, 12:39:39 pm »

I think Sanders would have been up 60-30 here, lol.
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2016, 12:41:05 pm »

Clinton favorables: 43/53
Trump favorables: 27/65!!!

This was all very predictable...From before the WI primary...

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« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2016, 12:41:33 pm »

I think Sanders would have been up 60-30 here, lol.

Something like 58-35 I'd say.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #17 on: August 10, 2016, 12:42:43 pm »

Not enough Reagan Democrats in Wisconsin.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2016, 12:43:58 pm »

lol Trump doesn't have a chance in Wisconsin. Yet some put this on their map.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #19 on: August 10, 2016, 12:44:11 pm »

I think Sanders would have been up 60-30 here, lol.

And Rubio would probably be beating Clinton.
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« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2016, 12:44:55 pm »

I think Sanders would have been up 60-30 here, lol.

And Rubio would probably be beating Clinton.

Kasich would I think. I'm not sure about Rubio.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #21 on: August 10, 2016, 12:45:43 pm »

Clinton favorables: 43/53
Trump favorables: 27/65!!!

This was all very predictable...From before the WI primary...



And right there you can see the HUGE educational divide. Farming/blue collar/poor outstate is for Trump but has a lot less population.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #22 on: August 10, 2016, 12:47:23 pm »

I think Sanders would have been up 60-30 here, lol.

And Rubio would probably be beating Clinton.

Kasich would I think. I'm not sure about Rubio.

Agreed. I see WI being a pivotal state in 2020 if someone like Kasich or Ryan wins the GOP nomination. More so than PA.
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« Reply #23 on: August 10, 2016, 12:51:47 pm »

My condolences, TNMTVolunteer. Trump can't win Wisconsin. It's really interesting that Democrats are doing better among likely voters this time around.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #24 on: August 10, 2016, 01:00:09 pm »

Republicans get most of their CONGRESSIONAL power from rural areas, but Republicans count on most of their winning MARGINS coming from highly populated suburban counties in most states.  For example, it's kind of irrelevant that rural KS is ultra-Republican, because if the KC suburbs weren't highly Republican, it wouldn't matter.  This is especially true in states like WI, MN and NH where the main suburban areas usually vote to the right of the rural areas.  If you're unappealing to those voters - the most likely to vote for a generic R AND in populous areas - kiss those states goodbye.
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