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  NH - Vox Populi Polling: Hassan +3
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Author Topic: NH - Vox Populi Polling: Hassan +3  (Read 874 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: August 10, 2016, 05:15:07 pm »

(Climbing) Maggie Hassan 46%
Kelly Ayotte 43%
Other / Undecided 11%

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/41140016/data/1/-/jxy7pq/-/Vox-Populi-Polling-memo.pdf
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2016, 05:23:56 pm »

Interesting that Ayotte is outperforming Trump by 7.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2016, 05:27:48 pm »

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by Vox Populi Polling on 2016-08-08

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2016, 05:28:31 pm »

TNVol, how do you think a Hassan vs. Guinta race would go?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2016, 05:43:30 pm »

Interesting that Ayotte is outperforming Trump by 7.

This poll is basically an Ayotte internal. Also, outperforming him by 7 won't be enough. Hassan's floor in the state is 50% and Ayotte's ceiling is 48%.

This pollster is definitely Ayotte friendly, look at the bottom of the poll:

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If down 3 is well positioned, I can only imagine what they'd say if she was up 3.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2016, 05:57:11 pm »

Considering that this is Vox, Ayotte should update her profile picture to this:



Alright, TNV, I believe you. Ayotte's probably done.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2016, 06:26:46 pm »

Interesting that Ayotte is outperforming Trump by 7.

This poll is basically an Ayotte internal. Also, outperforming him by 7 won't be enough. Hassan's floor in the state is 50% and Ayotte's ceiling is 48%.
This is a Republican firm, and Hassan is already at 46%, only 7% undecided. She has this, the NRSC, Kochs, etc. need to get the hell out of this state. The only way Ayotte could win is if every single man in New Hampshire voted for her, but that's not going to happen. Super super duper Safe D. Not a single chance AT ALL Ayotte wins. Of course, everyone will keep pretending this is competitive.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2016, 06:30:01 pm »

I think both the +10/9 polls were outliers
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2016, 06:31:19 pm »

I think both the +10/9 polls were outliers
This poll is clearly an outlier.
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2016, 06:34:37 pm »


Alright, TNV, I believe you. Ayotte's probably done.

Why did it take you so long to finally accept the truth, though? Smiley

I'm cautious, and it looked close for a while. Hassan's definitely taken the lead, though.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2016, 07:33:43 pm »

I'll grant you that Kirk looks like he's decently overperforming Trump, but there is no way Ayotte is more vulnerable than Johnson. I agree though that both will go to Dems.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 12:44:20 am »

Alright, Ayotte's not done per se, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to see a scenario where she wins, especially with the presidential numbers as they are. Still closer than IL, WI, but that means jack squat if Trump's losing all three states by double digits.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 06:52:34 am »

TNVol, how do you think a Hassan vs. Guinta race would go?
You mean a moderately popular Democratic Governor v. a corrupt highly unpopular GOP Representative?

In a statewide race, Safe D and Hassan wins 60-37. In NH-1, Likely D and Hassan wins 56-40.
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