NH - Vox Populi Polling: Hassan +3

[The Other Castro]

(Climbing) Maggie Hassan 46%
Kelly Ayotte 43%
Other / Undecided 11%

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/41140016/data/1/-/jxy7pq/-/Vox-Populi-Polling-memo.pdf

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Interesting that Ayotte is outperforming Trump by 7.

[IceSpear]

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by Vox Populi Polling on 2016-08-08

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[IceSpear]

TNVol, how do you think a Hassan vs. Guinta race would go?

[The Other Castro]

Interesting that Ayotte is outperforming Trump by 7.

This poll is basically an Ayotte internal. Also, outperforming him by 7 won't be enough. Hassan's floor in the state is 50% and Ayotte's ceiling is 48%.

This pollster is definitely Ayotte friendly, look at the bottom of the poll:

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If down 3 is well positioned, I can only imagine what they'd say if she was up 3.

[Xing]

Considering that this is Vox, Ayotte should update her profile picture to this:



Alright, TNV, I believe you. Ayotte's probably done.

[Heisenberg]

Interesting that Ayotte is outperforming Trump by 7.

This poll is basically an Ayotte internal. Also, outperforming him by 7 won't be enough. Hassan's floor in the state is 50% and Ayotte's ceiling is 48%.

This is a Republican firm, and Hassan is already at 46%, only 7% undecided. She has this, the NRSC, Kochs, etc. need to get the hell out of this state. The only way Ayotte could win is if every single man in New Hampshire voted for her, but that's not going to happen. Super super duper Safe D. Not a single chance AT ALL Ayotte wins. Of course, everyone will keep pretending this is competitive.

[Free Bird]

I think both the +10/9 polls were outliers

[Heisenberg]

I think both the +10/9 polls were outliers

This poll is clearly an outlier.

[Xing]

Alright, TNV, I believe you. Ayotte's probably done.

Why did it take you so long to finally accept the truth, though?

I'm cautious, and it looked close for a while. Hassan's definitely taken the lead, though.

[The Other Castro]

I'll grant you that Kirk looks like he's decently overperforming Trump, but there is no way Ayotte is more vulnerable than Johnson. I agree though that both will go to Dems.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Alright, Ayotte's not done per se, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to see a scenario where she wins, especially with the presidential numbers as they are. Still closer than IL, WI, but that means jack squat if Trump's losing all three states by double digits.

[Kingpoleon]

TNVol, how do you think a Hassan vs. Guinta race would go?

You mean a moderately popular Democratic Governor v. a corrupt highly unpopular GOP Representative?

In a statewide race, Safe D and Hassan wins 60-37. In NH-1, Likely D and Hassan wins 56-40.