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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Rubio +3, Portman +9, McGinty +3  (Read 1803 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: August 11, 2016, 05:00:42 am »

Florida: Marco Rubio (R, inc.) 48 - Patrick Murphy (D) 45
Ohio: Rob Portman (R, inc.) 49 - Ted Strickland (D) 40
Pennsylvania: Katie McGinty (D) 47 - Pat Toomey (R, inc.) 44

Link.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2016, 06:13:15 am »

Yeah Ohio might have to be triaged soon if these numbers keep up.  Damn good on McGinty as well.  Florida is about where you would think, behind but not by too much.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2016, 08:19:44 am »

Portman is clearly leading by now (but not by 9 points lol), hopefully Trump will be able to dragg him down.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2016, 08:25:03 am »

Portman is clearly leading by now (but not by 9 points lol), hopefully Trump will be able to dragg him down.

Well, the same poll shows Clinton up 4, so Portman's outperforming Trump by 13 points.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2016, 08:33:54 am »

Portman is clearly leading by now (but not by 9 points lol), hopefully Trump will be able to dragg him down.

Well, the same poll shows Clinton up 4, so Portman's outperforming Trump by 13 points.
I think he will overperform by 8-10 points in the end. Considering how big Trump is a big disaster, that can't be excluded.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2016, 09:16:16 am »

That's not a bad number for Murphy. OH is looking rough.

RIP TOOMEY!!!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2016, 09:53:47 am »

These results are pretty interesting.

The Florida number is nice, but I have to wonder why the polls are so wildly inconsistent here.

Ohio is pathetic. Looks like Strickland really will be the Tommy Thompson of 2016. Sad!

McGinty has to be considered a slight favorite at this point, which is just utterly hilarious to me. Not that I expected it either, but so much for the Atlas hot take that she was unelectable and Toomey was an unbeatable titan.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2016, 09:57:45 am »

These results are pretty interesting.

The Florida number is nice, but I have to wonder why the polls are so wildly inconsistent here.

It's hard to poll minorities, especially Hispanics.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2016, 10:31:11 am »

Ohio's looking pretty bad. It might end up being like the Georgia senate race in 2014. So much for Toomey and Mischievous Marco being invulnerable, though.
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syntaxerror
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« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2016, 10:41:20 am »

Tim Ryan should have run. Strickland is a horrible candidate.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2016, 10:49:23 am »

Toomey needs to come out publicly against Trump to deflate McGinty's attacks.  That shouldn't be too hard for him to do, since he supported Cruz for the nomination.
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Frodo
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 07:23:57 pm »

The fact that Sen. Marco Rubio is only narrowly leading Rep. Pat Murphy instead of crushing him can be attributed to the antics of one man:


Donald Trump.
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 07:47:13 pm »

If I'm the GOP this FL poll would scare me. Murphy is still not that well known and he could get a primary boost. Also, Rubio getting 37% of non-whites may indicate a lot of soft support. Senate races tend to break in September and Murphy will blast the airwaves with video of Rubio supporting Trump and vice versa. Murphy losing whites by 14 will probably get it done for him.
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ag
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2016, 10:23:27 pm »

These results are pretty interesting.

The Florida number is nice, but I have to wonder why the polls are so wildly inconsistent here.

It's hard to poll minorities, especially Hispanics.

Yeah, the easiest (though, probably, wrong) explanation would be some sort of underpolling/incompletely revealing Hispanics. That would result in both Clinton and Rubio underpferforming. Doubt it is true, though.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2016, 10:46:08 pm »

Also from this poll:

Murphy beats Beruff, 48 percent to 34 percent and Rubio defeats Grayson, 49 percent to 43 percent.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/08/florida-poll-hurt-by-trump-rubio-in-too-close-to-call-us-senate-race-with-murphy-104657#ixzz4H5OkXzSH
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2016, 10:47:00 pm »

If I'm the GOP this FL poll would scare me. Murphy is still not that well known and he could get a primary boost. Also, Rubio getting 37% of non-whites may indicate a lot of soft support. Senate races tend to break in September and Murphy will blast the airwaves with video of Rubio supporting Trump and vice versa. Murphy losing whites by 14 will probably get it done for him.

How's Rubio's bank account looking after the Presidential run???

At what point will the national Dem's abandon the seat if this starts to solidify after labor day to sink more $$$ into potential flips?

Not sure if air wars are where it's at in FL considering that Rubio is a relatively known statewide figure, but still not convinced this will hold until the endgame.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2016, 01:34:50 am »

Why exactly is Ted Strickland such a bad candidate? I mean Sherrod Brown is the other senator for [inks]ing sake, it's not impossible for a Democrat (a particularly liberal one at that) to win, so why can't Strickland seem to close the gap?
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2016, 02:11:11 am »

Why exactly is Ted Strickland such a bad candidate? I mean Sherrod Brown is the other senator for [inks]ing sake, it's not impossible for a Democrat (a particularly liberal one at that) to win, so why can't Strickland seem to close the gap?

- Baggage from his time as governor
- While Portman isn't all that moderate, he does a good job of convincing people he is, and he does support SSM
- Not a good campaigner
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2016, 07:29:09 am »

But Atlas told me it was stupid to call Ohio Lean R!
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Castro
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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2016, 08:22:53 am »

But Atlas told me it was stupid to call Ohio Lean R!

Well, it was a little early to be calling things leaning one way or the other when the polling was so close.
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