SC-PPP: Trump +2

[Fargobison]

Trump is +2 in SC but is going to campaign in Connecticut this weekend...Not sure there has ever been a more pathetic presidential campaign...

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http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Trump-planning-Fairfield-visit-this-Saturday-9136455.php

[Crumpets]

Republicans have opened the ark of populism and are amazed by its contents.

[Seriously?]

I'm sure Trump supporters are just as skeptical of polls showing a tight race in Safe D states like OR, CT, ME, and NV.

With the exception of NV, which is a legitimate swing state, I am. Go check my posting history and try again.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm sure Trump supporters are just as skeptical of polls showing a tight race in Safe D states like OR, CT, ME, and NV.

I did not doubt the legitimacy of this particular poll, I was speaking in general terms.

I believe that Clinton could lose OR, CT, ME and NV while winning GA and SC.

In a major realignment which may or may not happen, the map above is possible.

LOL

[Gass3268]

So yes, while the race is close in the south, it is also close in states like Michigan, Maine, Oregon and Connecticut.

Since when is Clinton being up double digits in Michigan and Maine close?

[GeorgiaModerate]

[quote author=Washington For Congress! link=topic=243141.msg5211166#msg5211166

The race is close in South Carolina, just like it is close in Michigan as the polls seem to suggest. (Whether they may be right or wrong).
[/quote]

Except that the polls do not suggest a close race in Michigan, unless you have a very liberal definition of "close".  The RCP aggregate shows Clinton leading every Michigan poll, with an average lead of 6.6%.  Only one poll was closer than 5 points (a 3-point lead).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

[evergreenarbor]

RIP Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm sure Trump supporters are just as skeptical of polls showing a tight race in Safe D states like OR, CT, ME, and NV.

I did not doubt the legitimacy of this particular poll, I was speaking in general terms.

I believe that Clinton could lose OR, CT, ME and NV while winning GA and SC.

[img]

In a major realignment which may or may not happen, the map above is possible.

LOL

I really have no idea why you continue to use 2000 as a model for all elections. The traditional (since 2000 at least) concept of blue states and red states is being shook to the core.

The race is close in South Carolina, just like it is close in Michigan as the polls seem to suggest. (Whether they may be right or wrong).

Close in Michigan? WHAT?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

Wisconsin?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

New Hampshire? (This average doesn't even have today's double-digit result in it yet)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump is +2 in SC but is going to campaign in Connecticut this weekend...Not sure there has ever been a more pathetic presidential campaign...

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http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Trump-planning-Fairfield-visit-this-Saturday-9136455.php

Why shouldn't all his adoring fans be given the opportunity to see him? This is a once in a lifetime moment for some non-New Yorkers.

[DrScholl]

South Carolina's white electorate is 37% college educated. Trump is in trouble. The fact that the poll is for the SCDP does not mean it is rigged. If Georgia is close, South Carolina couldn't be far behind.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I wonder what they will think if they ever have a place to rent and they get sued because they were 'discriminating'.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump supporters have resorted to parsing polls that show him barely up in South Carolina. Sad!

Seriously's utter despair is oozing through my screen.

Ummmm. No.... It's the utter stupidity of some of the avatars on here not to recognize the methodological difference here and to admit that it's an advocacy poll. I believe in full disclosure. Most of you red avatars prefer hackery.

Trump leads in a red state with a worst-case scenario poll commissioned by the Democrats.

This so many times.

I did move South Carolina out of Safe R just now out of an abundance of caution, but I don't believe it's a two point race.

[psychprofessor]

Trump supporters have resorted to parsing polls that show him barely up in South Carolina. Sad!

Seriously's utter despair is oozing through my screen.

Ummmm. No.... It's the utter stupidity of some of the avatars on here not to recognize the methodological difference here and to admit that it's an advocacy poll. I believe in full disclosure. Most of you red avatars prefer hackery.

Trump leads in a red state with a worst-case scenario poll commissioned by the Democrats.

This so many times.

I did move South Carolina out of Safe R just now out of an abundance of caution, but I don't believe it's a two point race.

I think we need to be careful about "what we believe" in this election. Polls show Georgia within the margin of error and it isn't that far of a stretch to say SC could be close as well. That doesn't mean Hillary wins, but it does mean it bears watching. I think NC, SC and GA are in play, with NC most likely going to Clinton, GA a tossup and SC lean Trump.

[ProudModerate2]

So yes, while the race is close in the south, it is also close in states like Michigan, Maine, Oregon and Connecticut.

Since when is Clinton being up double digits in Michigan and Maine close?

I think Washington For Congress, has lost his mind.
These trump supporters need something to believe in, so they dig-deep (really deep) and say things like "Connecticut is close."
What ! ?
I just don't understand someone's psyche when it goes to this unusual level. Is he just kidding and trying to troll us, or does he really believe in his statement ?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So yes, while the race is close in the south, it is also close in states like Michigan, Maine, Oregon and Connecticut.

Since when is Clinton being up double digits in Michigan and Maine close?

I think Washington For Congress, has lost his mind.
These trump supporters need something to believe in, so they dig-deep (really deep) and say things like "Connecticut is close."
What ! ?
I just don't understand someone's psyche when it goes to this unusual level. Is he just kidding and trying to troll us, or does he really believe in his statement ?

There is no point to talking about his path/close race in those states right now, when Trump is trailing by 8-10 points nationally. But he might win while he's nationally trailing by the same margins that Romney.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sponsored by Democratic Party. I would say Trump is up more like 5 or 6.

[Maxwell]

lol Seriously?'s response to a joke Republican firm - LET'S USE ALL RELEVANT INFORMATION

Seriously?'s response to a firm who general record is pretty good - LOL DEMOCRAT HACKS.

then again, i'm sure he believed the fake breitbart polls in WI-1.

[Seriously?]

lol Seriously?'s response to a joke Republican firm - LET'S USE ALL RELEVANT INFORMATION

Seriously?'s response to a firm who general record is pretty good - LOL DEMOCRAT HACKS.

then again, i'm sure he believed the fake breitbart polls in WI-1.

You are seriously taking what I said out of context in BOTH scenarios, where i have clearly stated to take both polls with a grain of salt given the sourcing.

A PPP Poll of registered voters for the Democrats will not end up with the same numbers as a PPP Poll of likely voters done by themselves. It's obvious common sense.

[Cruzcrew]

Something seems fishy about South Carolina only being 1 point to the right of Iowa as polls currently suggest. Also, it does seem odd how badly Trump is doing with working class voters. Are a majority of them black in South Carolina?

[DS0816]

Margins Spread • Georgia vs. South Carolina
• 2004: 0.48
• 2008: 3.78
• 2012: 2.67

Average 2.31

[KingSweden]

That age breakdown is brutal for GOP long term

[NOVA Green]

Margins Spread • Georgia vs. South Carolina
• 2004: 0.48
• 2008: 3.78
• 2012: 2.67

Average 2.31

This SC poll does make sense considering what we have seen out of recent Georgia polls...

I thought the main argument as to why SC would not be competitive anytime soon had to do with a relatively inelastic electorate, where more liberal Northern Coastal transplants are offset by "country club" Republican types, frequently from other Southern states.

What % of the White vote would Hillary have to garner in SC to potentially flip the state?

Right now this poll indicates she is at 20% and a significant number of undecided White voters, that typically break Republican closer to election day (Although 2016 might be an exception).

[ElectionsGuy]

Margins Spread • Georgia vs. South Carolina
• 2004: 0.48
• 2008: 3.78
• 2012: 2.67

Average 2.31

This SC poll does make sense considering what we have seen out of recent Georgia polls...

I thought the main argument as to why SC would not be competitive anytime soon had to do with a relatively inelastic electorate, where more liberal Northern Coastal transplants are offset by "country club" Republican types, frequently from other Southern states.

What % of the White vote would Hillary have to garner in SC to potentially flip the state?

Right now this poll indicates she is at 20% and a significant number of undecided White voters, that typically break Republican closer to election day (Although 2016 might be an exception).

Probably a bit over 30%. In Georgia it would only require 28-29%.

[Seriously?]

Margins Spread • Georgia vs. South Carolina
• 2004: 0.48
• 2008: 3.78
• 2012: 2.67

Average 2.31

This SC poll does make sense considering what we have seen out of recent Georgia polls...

I thought the main argument as to why SC would not be competitive anytime soon had to do with a relatively inelastic electorate, where more liberal Northern Coastal transplants are offset by "country club" Republican types, frequently from other Southern states.

What % of the White vote would Hillary have to garner in SC to potentially flip the state?

Right now this poll indicates she is at 20% and a significant number of undecided White voters, that typically break Republican closer to election day (Although 2016 might be an exception).

Not implausible, but remember: South Carolina was very good for Trump in the primaries. He won just about every county except for Columbia and Charleston on the coast and took every delegate.

There's little reason to think that against that backdrop, the country-club types will defect en masse, except in Columbia. While there are still some traditional Southern country club-types in Charleston, there's also a good amount of military and retired military.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Trump lost almost two thirds of Republicans in South Carolina.