Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 18, 2019, 03:25:14 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  IA-Suffolk: Trump +1
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: IA-Suffolk: Trump +1  (Read 1871 times)
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,135
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -1.24

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 11, 2016, 11:04:21 am »

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_11_2016_Tables.pdf

Trump 41
Clinton 40

Trump 37
Clinton 36
Johnson 6
Stein 3

Conducted 8/8-8/10. 500 LV.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2016, 11:09:28 am by heatcharger »Logged

dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2016, 11:05:26 am »

Well that goes against the grain a little...people in the Clinton team said that Iowa would not be easy and this poll confirms that
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,171
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2016, 11:08:12 am »

Hmmm, maybe IA is going to be tough for Hillary. Good thing she doesn't need it.
Logged

Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,371
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2016, 11:08:59 am »

Well that goes against the grain a little...people in the Clinton team said that Iowa would not be easy and this poll confirms that

I think IA is slowly moving in the opposite direction of NH/VA.
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,201


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2016, 11:10:09 am »

Iowa is pretty clearly to the R side of the national average this election. I can't say I buy Trump +1 here, but there are definitely indications of this race getting closer again.
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
Spark498
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,136
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: 2.17

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2016, 11:10:43 am »

That's a good sign. Maybe there is hope after all.
Logged

2020 President Endorsement: Undecided
Doctor Imperialism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,033


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2016, 11:12:22 am »

That's a good sign. Maybe there is hope after all.

He says, minutes after a poll showing Trump within the margin of error in South Carolina was posted.
Logged

heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,135
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -1.24

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2016, 11:14:22 am »

It's a weak poll for Clinton no doubt. But the problem for Trump is that Iowa does nothing for his electoral calculus. Romney+FL+OH+PA would get him to 273, and Iowa isn't enough to replace the 20 electoral votes of PA that he won't be receiving.
Logged

North Fulton Democrat
mollybecky
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 643


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2016, 11:21:52 am »

Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,484


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2016, 11:45:51 am »

Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 

Eastern Iowa and the big cities like Des Moines are growing though. Western Iowa is shrinking.
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com

Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,555
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2016, 11:50:42 am »

Between 1/3 (2 way) - 1/4 (4 way) of those 18-34 are undecided. I have to imagine that a large portion will head towards Clinton over Trump.
Logged

Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Bismarck
Chancellor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,719


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 11:50:59 am »

Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 

Eastern Iowa and the big cities like Des Moines are growing though. Western Iowa is shrinking.

Dallas county (Wealthy Des Moines Suburb) and Sioux county ( super religous Dutch republican stronghold) are both growing, and these are the two most important strongholds for republicans in the state.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,484


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 11:53:20 am »

Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 

Eastern Iowa and the big cities like Des Moines are growing though. Western Iowa is shrinking.

Dallas county (Wealthy Des Moines Suburb) and Sioux county ( super religous Dutch republican stronghold) are both growing, and these are the two most important strongholds for republicans in the state.

But Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Iowa City are absolutely booming.
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com

FM Scott🦋
Ascott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,079
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2016, 11:55:33 am »

Hillary needs to take Trump's Iowa comment from last year and get some decent ads made.  She's done a good job here in VA so far with the disabled reporter stuff.
Logged



Vote January 18-20!
BlueSwan
blueswan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,585
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2016, 12:03:02 pm »

I lived in Iowa for 9 months back in 1993-94 and I cannot fathom why Clinton is doing so poorly there. Granted I lived in the upper northeastern part of the state, but still. Can somebody explain this phenomenon.
Logged

Any democrat 2020.
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,555
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2016, 12:04:33 pm »

I lived in Iowa for 9 months back in 1993-94 and I cannot fathom why Clinton is doing so poorly there. Granted I lived in the upper northeastern part of the state, but still. Can somebody explain this phenomenon.

She's struggling with young Iowans.
Logged

Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,371
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2016, 12:04:33 pm »

Just for fun, this is what the swing map looked like in 1992 when Bill Clinton won:



Tongue
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Likely Voter
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,365


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2016, 03:29:49 pm »

The NYT article that said FLOHPA was the Trump strategy also mentioned both sides agree IA is also leaning Trump. But if they are shooting for PA, IA is irrelevant. It only comes into play if the go for the 'inside straight' of FLOH+IANHME2NV. 

I suspect they will continue to work on PA as plan A. But it's good new for them that if they have won FL and OH, they probably have IA too.  It just gets tricky after that.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2016, 03:55:28 pm »

Iowa doesn't look like many other swing states - it's pretty dominantly white. And unlike New Hampshire, there isn't that whole old school moderate Republicanism in existence.

maybe Iowa is trending hard Republican, but what i find fascinating about this poll is Obama's approval ratings are -7. RCP has his national approval ratings above 51%.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2016, 03:57:57 pm by Maxwell »Logged
Cruzcrew
Paleocon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 574
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2016, 03:58:28 pm »

There's plenty of white working class democrats flipping for this election in Iowa. Obama relied heavily on working class voters to win Iowa in 2012 and Trump is bound to see some type of gain from a 5 point loss in this state with the way it's built.
Logged
Green Line
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,010
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 0.70

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2016, 03:59:28 pm »

Wow.  How stupid are the people of Iowa?
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2016, 04:02:44 pm »

their party demographics are pretty much matching 2012's numbers - 33% Republican, 33% Democrat, 34% Independent. Exits showed Romney taking more Democrats than Obama taking Republicans, but Obama made up for it by leading among Independents by a whopping 14 points.

This time around, Clinton actually takes more from Republicans (11%) than Trump takes from Democrats (6%), but Trump actually leads indies by 6 (37-31, with a yuge 29% undecided).
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 362


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 11, 2016, 04:23:19 pm »

Iowa has been confusing me, given that it's been a pretty consistent D+1 state over the last 6 cycles.  Right now, it's looking to vote several points to the right of the nation, which is a very sudden shift.

I dunno; maybe it would've shifted right the last two elections with generic R/D candidates, but Obama was just a really good fit for the state.  And being ripe with voters without a college education, it has potential as a Trump state.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,474
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 11, 2016, 04:43:49 pm »

It's interesting that according to this poll, terrorism/national security rank only slightly behind jobs/economy as the major issue facing the country.

This seems very different from in many other states, and even odder considering that Iowa traditionally is more of a dovish state when it comes to overseas military adventures.
Logged

Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2016, 05:11:20 pm »

Suffolk is not the best of pollsters. But IA seems to definitely be competitive from whatever recent polling we've seen. Does Seltzer generally poll around this time or does she wait for the election to get closer?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines