IA-Suffolk: Trump +1
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:38:18 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  IA-Suffolk: Trump +1
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: IA-Suffolk: Trump +1  (Read 3403 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 11, 2016, 11:04:21 AM »
« edited: August 11, 2016, 11:09:28 AM by heatcharger »

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_11_2016_Tables.pdf

Trump 41
Clinton 40

Trump 37
Clinton 36
Johnson 6
Stein 3

Conducted 8/8-8/10. 500 LV.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,798
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2016, 11:05:26 AM »

Well that goes against the grain a little...people in the Clinton team said that Iowa would not be easy and this poll confirms that
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2016, 11:08:12 AM »

Hmmm, maybe IA is going to be tough for Hillary. Good thing she doesn't need it.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2016, 11:08:59 AM »

Well that goes against the grain a little...people in the Clinton team said that Iowa would not be easy and this poll confirms that

I think IA is slowly moving in the opposite direction of NH/VA.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2016, 11:10:09 AM »

Iowa is pretty clearly to the R side of the national average this election. I can't say I buy Trump +1 here, but there are definitely indications of this race getting closer again.
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2016, 11:10:43 AM »

That's a good sign. Maybe there is hope after all.
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2016, 11:12:22 AM »

That's a good sign. Maybe there is hope after all.

He says, minutes after a poll showing Trump within the margin of error in South Carolina was posted.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2016, 11:14:22 AM »

It's a weak poll for Clinton no doubt. But the problem for Trump is that Iowa does nothing for his electoral calculus. Romney+FL+OH+PA would get him to 273, and Iowa isn't enough to replace the 20 electoral votes of PA that he won't be receiving.
Logged
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,968


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2016, 11:21:52 AM »

Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2016, 11:45:51 AM »

Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 

Eastern Iowa and the big cities like Des Moines are growing though. Western Iowa is shrinking.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2016, 11:50:42 AM »

Between 1/3 (2 way) - 1/4 (4 way) of those 18-34 are undecided. I have to imagine that a large portion will head towards Clinton over Trump.
Logged
Bismarck
Chancellor
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,342


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 11:50:59 AM »

Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 

Eastern Iowa and the big cities like Des Moines are growing though. Western Iowa is shrinking.

Dallas county (Wealthy Des Moines Suburb) and Sioux county ( super religous Dutch republican stronghold) are both growing, and these are the two most important strongholds for republicans in the state.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 11:53:20 AM »

Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 

Eastern Iowa and the big cities like Des Moines are growing though. Western Iowa is shrinking.

Dallas county (Wealthy Des Moines Suburb) and Sioux county ( super religous Dutch republican stronghold) are both growing, and these are the two most important strongholds for republicans in the state.

But Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Iowa City are absolutely booming.
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2016, 11:55:33 AM »

Hillary needs to take Trump's Iowa comment from last year and get some decent ads made.  She's done a good job here in VA so far with the disabled reporter stuff.
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,289
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2016, 12:03:02 PM »

I lived in Iowa for 9 months back in 1993-94 and I cannot fathom why Clinton is doing so poorly there. Granted I lived in the upper northeastern part of the state, but still. Can somebody explain this phenomenon.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2016, 12:04:33 PM »

I lived in Iowa for 9 months back in 1993-94 and I cannot fathom why Clinton is doing so poorly there. Granted I lived in the upper northeastern part of the state, but still. Can somebody explain this phenomenon.

She's struggling with young Iowans.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2016, 03:29:49 PM »

The NYT article that said FLOHPA was the Trump strategy also mentioned both sides agree IA is also leaning Trump. But if they are shooting for PA, IA is irrelevant. It only comes into play if the go for the 'inside straight' of FLOH+IANHME2NV. 

I suspect they will continue to work on PA as plan A. But it's good new for them that if they have won FL and OH, they probably have IA too.  It just gets tricky after that.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2016, 03:55:28 PM »
« Edited: August 11, 2016, 03:57:57 PM by Maxwell »

Iowa doesn't look like many other swing states - it's pretty dominantly white. And unlike New Hampshire, there isn't that whole old school moderate Republicanism in existence.

maybe Iowa is trending hard Republican, but what i find fascinating about this poll is Obama's approval ratings are -7. RCP has his national approval ratings above 51%.
Logged
Cruzcrew
Paleocon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2016, 03:58:28 PM »

There's plenty of white working class democrats flipping for this election in Iowa. Obama relied heavily on working class voters to win Iowa in 2012 and Trump is bound to see some type of gain from a 5 point loss in this state with the way it's built.
Logged
Green Line
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2016, 03:59:28 PM »

Wow.  How stupid are the people of Iowa?
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2016, 04:02:44 PM »

their party demographics are pretty much matching 2012's numbers - 33% Republican, 33% Democrat, 34% Independent. Exits showed Romney taking more Democrats than Obama taking Republicans, but Obama made up for it by leading among Independents by a whopping 14 points.

This time around, Clinton actually takes more from Republicans (11%) than Trump takes from Democrats (6%), but Trump actually leads indies by 6 (37-31, with a yuge 29% undecided).
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2016, 04:23:19 PM »

Iowa has been confusing me, given that it's been a pretty consistent D+1 state over the last 6 cycles.  Right now, it's looking to vote several points to the right of the nation, which is a very sudden shift.

I dunno; maybe it would've shifted right the last two elections with generic R/D candidates, but Obama was just a really good fit for the state.  And being ripe with voters without a college education, it has potential as a Trump state.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 11, 2016, 04:43:49 PM »

It's interesting that according to this poll, terrorism/national security rank only slightly behind jobs/economy as the major issue facing the country.

This seems very different from in many other states, and even odder considering that Iowa traditionally is more of a dovish state when it comes to overseas military adventures.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 11, 2016, 05:11:20 PM »

Suffolk is not the best of pollsters. But IA seems to definitely be competitive from whatever recent polling we've seen. Does Seltzer generally poll around this time or does she wait for the election to get closer?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2016, 05:13:43 PM »

Anyone who thinks Trump will win Iowa is fulling themselves. Iowa is not the new West Virginia.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 14 queries.