There may be a slow trend for Iowa going to the right. I think age will be the most telling metric in the years to come. It's an aging state and also gets labeled as a "brain drain" state--public schools are pretty good here so a lot of kids who decide to go to college leave the state for school, or go to college here and then move. There's definitely not a fast trend to the R side as some suggest. Honestly, I think if it was Clinton vs. any other republican, Iowa would flip this year. If it had been Sanders vs. any republican, I think the state would have been lean D.
I would think the WDM suburbs wouldn't be friendly to Trump even if it's a republican area? It's more of a Romney/Rubio area. I doubt Trump out performs Romney there.
I still think if it's this close on election day the tie will go to Clinton. Mentioned this in another thread once--if IA-4 (who we can all thank for Steve King) joined another state we'd be lean D
