pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,859
|
 |
« on: August 12, 2016, 02:03:42 AM » |
|
It's also Trump under 45. McCain and Romney both got within 10, and I can easily see Trump getting 46 in Iowa and losing in a binary race.
In 2008 I saw polls in which Obama had a bare led in such states as North Dakota and South Dakota (let us say 43-41) only to lose. Obama ended up with 46% of the vote, which was not enough.
Iowa is close enough to being a battleground even in a good year for Democrats that one cannot assume that the state will go Democratic. Kerry lost Iowa in 2004, and Gore barely won it in 2000. Could it be that Barack Obama is an unusually-good match for Iowa and Hillary Clinton isn't?
|
