NY-Gravis: Clinton +14
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Author Topic: NY-Gravis: Clinton +14  (Read 1571 times)
JRP1994
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« on: August 11, 2016, 01:28:45 PM »
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20160809_NY_1.pdf
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2016, 01:33:30 PM »

Well, according to Gravis, Maine is only four points to the right of New York. See what I was talking about earlier?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2016, 01:34:10 PM »

Why do you keep ignoring the Gravis part. Still, Trump should improve upon Romney's 2012 margins here and in NJ.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2016, 01:35:14 PM »
The only reliable NY poll is Sienna.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2016, 01:36:06 PM »
lol no
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2016, 01:36:52 PM »
Trump at 34% seems about right, and the head-to-head numbers are somewhat plausible, but I think the third party numbers are way off. I highly doubt Johnson or Stein will break 3% each in NY. And what's with 8% of people choosing "Other" when Johnson and Stein are provided?
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2016, 01:41:10 PM »
ROFLMAO. NY is at least 20-25 points Dem
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2016, 01:44:49 PM »
Siena is the only New York poll I trust.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2016, 02:10:13 PM »
Quote from: dspNY on August 11, 2016, 01:41:10 PM
ROFLMAO. NY is at least 20-25 points Dem

Normally yes. But I can see trump bringing down the traditional huge D-lead in NY, we are all accustomed to seeing.
When Americans think of "Trump," they also connect New York to his "empire," but regardless, it will easily be won by Hillary (but with a smaller margin of victory).
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2016, 02:15:52 PM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on August 11, 2016, 02:10:13 PM
Quote from: dspNY on August 11, 2016, 01:41:10 PM
ROFLMAO. NY is at least 20-25 points Dem

Normally yes. But I can see trump bringing down the traditional huge D-lead in NY, we are all accustomed to seeing.
When Americans think of "Trump," they also connect New York to his "empire," but regardless, it will easily be won by Hillary (but with a smaller margin of victory).

The margin will not be under 20. Manhattan and the suburbs are going to be brutal for Trump.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2016, 02:19:37 PM »
Hahaha
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 02:26:55 PM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on August 11, 2016, 02:15:52 PM
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on August 11, 2016, 02:10:13 PM
Quote from: dspNY on August 11, 2016, 01:41:10 PM
ROFLMAO. NY is at least 20-25 points Dem

Normally yes. But I can see trump bringing down the traditional huge D-lead in NY, we are all accustomed to seeing.
When Americans think of "Trump," they also connect New York to his "empire," but regardless, it will easily be won by Hillary (but with a smaller margin of victory).

The margin will not be under 20. Manhattan and the suburbs are going to be brutal for Trump.

I agree.
I think Obama won this state in 2012 at about +28.
So in the low 20's or high teens is possible for trump.
But +14 is too low ; I don't see trump's appeal in his "own" state dropping to this level.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 02:33:57 PM »
There's no way Clinton doesn't win by 20+.  I think we'll end up with about a Gore kind of margin, 60-35 or so.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2016, 02:35:22 PM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on August 11, 2016, 02:26:55 PM
Quote from: psychprofessor on August 11, 2016, 02:15:52 PM
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on August 11, 2016, 02:10:13 PM
Quote from: dspNY on August 11, 2016, 01:41:10 PM
ROFLMAO. NY is at least 20-25 points Dem

Normally yes. But I can see trump bringing down the traditional huge D-lead in NY, we are all accustomed to seeing.
When Americans think of "Trump," they also connect New York to his "empire," but regardless, it will easily be won by Hillary (but with a smaller margin of victory).

The margin will not be under 20. Manhattan and the suburbs are going to be brutal for Trump.

I agree.
I think Obama won this state in 2012 at about +28.
So in the low 20's or high teens is possible for trump.
But +14 is too low ; I don't see trump's appeal in his "own" state dropping to this level.

And I believe the most recent Siena poll had Trump's favorables in the 20's here. No way this ends up under 20 unless some drastic shift in the dynamic occurs.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2016, 05:11:42 PM »
Ummm. No.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2016, 05:13:27 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on August 11, 2016, 01:44:49 PM
Siena is the only New York poll I trust.
Marist and Quinnipiac aren't terrible either. They've got extensive experience polling the state.

14 points is possible because Trump is from here and Hillary is not, but very unlikely at the same time given the national numbers.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2016, 05:42:39 PM »
Junk poll!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2016, 10:57:46 PM »
Trump won't get closer to Hillary than Bernie did here. He's going to lose by at least 20%.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2016, 06:40:23 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 11, 2016, 10:57:46 PM
Trump won't get closer to Hillary than Bernie did here. He's going to lose by at least 20%.
I think that Trump might struggle to get 30% in New York and lose every county in the state if his campaign continues to implode.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #19 on: August 13, 2016, 06:55:23 PM »
Trump getting 36% in the end seems reasonable.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #20 on: August 13, 2016, 07:52:19 PM »
Hopefully this fools Trump into thinking he can make it competitive here.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2016, 10:08:39 PM »
Yeah, Trump needs to pour all his resources into NY.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2016, 02:37:34 PM »
Hillary Clinton is more likely up 24 than up 14 in New York.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2016, 03:19:15 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2016, 04:18:36 PM by Zyzz »
Those who know Trump best are rejecting him en masse, sad!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2016, 03:21:11 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on August 14, 2016, 03:19:15 PM
Those who know Trump best are rejecting him on mass, sad!

Didn't he lose the precinct of his own Trump Towers, one of the few precincts he lost in NYC he lost in the primaries?
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