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Author Topic: TX-KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump +11  (Read 2369 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: August 11, 2016, 08:13:30 pm »

46% Trump (R)
35% Clinton (D)

Img


The KTVT-CBS 11/Dixie Strategies Poll was conducted on August 8-9 and includes the viewpoints of 1,018 likely voters across Texas who were contacted and surveyed over the phone. The results include 448 Republicans, 305 Democrats and 265 others. It has a 3.1 percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

Link.
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White Trash
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2016, 08:14:20 pm »

Surprised by the Hispanic numbers tbh.
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2016, 08:15:01 pm »

Aww Sad
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2016, 08:18:20 pm »

Aww Sad

Don't get too sad yet... not sure those cross-tabs make sense. Let's see where PPP comes in.
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2016, 08:19:29 pm »

Aww Sad

Don't get too sad yet... not sure those cross-tabs make sense. Let's see where PPP comes in.

True. When is that coming? Next Wednesday?
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2016, 08:21:36 pm »

As someone from Texas this seems about right. Hispanics here also tend to be much further to the right than hispanics in other states fwiw. Greg Abbott actually won Hispanic Men in 2014.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2016, 08:25:04 pm »

Still, McCain won by 11 in Texas in 2008, this is about in line with other polls that Trump is presently running at McCain 2008 levels nationwide.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2016, 08:35:17 pm »

Surprised by the Hispanic numbers tbh.
Hispanics are a lot more conservative in Texas. Abbot and Cornyn won over 40% of them in 2014, several points to the right of Hispanics nationwide.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2016, 08:36:41 pm »

Surprised by the Hispanic numbers tbh.
I'm not. It's Texas.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2016, 08:52:29 pm »

As someone from Texas this seems about right. Hispanics here also tend to be much further to the right than hispanics in other states fwiw. Greg Abbott actually won Hispanic Men in 2014.

At the risk of being labeled a "polling unskewer" these numbers don't completely make sense.

Obama received close to 70% of the Latino vote in Texas in '08, and I suspect that Hillary will likely perform better come election day.

You do have a valid point regarding Texan Latino voting habits, voting significantly the Right of many other states, but over 80% of working-class Texas Latinos voter Democrat, and the main reason that on average the margins are closer than in some other states are Middle-Class Latinos that are much more likely to respond to pollsters, and aren't overwhelmingly Democratic voters (Unlike California).

Unfortunately (and please correct me if I'm wrong) this pollster hasn't really run a poll that actually represents the voters of one of the most difficult states to poll in the nation (Florida as a possible exception) in terms of landline/mobiles and Spanish language interviews.

What this poll does seem to indicate, is that there hasn't been a complete collapse of Anglo educated suburban voters, (possibly outside of DFW) that we have started to see in a mixture of Northern and Southern states....
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2016, 08:53:29 pm »

I'd expect the Latino numbers here to be more Trump-friendly than they are nationwide, but I'm not sure I buy a mere 15-point advantage for Hillary. It's not like I expect Texas to be competitive, though, so it's not a big deal.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 08:59:11 pm »

What this poll does seem to indicate, is that there hasn't been a complete collapse of Anglo educated suburban voters, (possibly outside of DFW) that we have started to see in a mixture of Northern and Southern states....

I don't think so. A Republican only winning whites by 20 points in Texas is pretty terrible.  McCain won whites by like 50 points.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2016, 09:01:45 pm by Lief 🐋 »Logged
NOVA Green
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 09:04:28 pm »

Aww Sad

Don't get too sad yet... not sure those cross-tabs make sense. Let's see where PPP comes in.

True. When is that coming? Next Wednesday?

I couldn't find any ratings of the them on 538, but looks to be a typical sloppy mediocre poll commissioned by a metro TV station.... any opinions/data on the accuracy?

I think the Houston Chronicle would likely be better on Texas polling considering the diversity of the state and large Latino population, but still PPP should give us a better reference point, compared to any other data we have seen thus far .
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matthew27
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2016, 09:05:33 pm »

46% Trump (R)
35% Clinton (D)

Img


The KTVT-CBS 11/Dixie Strategies Poll was conducted on August 8-9 and includes the viewpoints of 1,018 likely voters across Texas who were contacted and surveyed over the phone. The results include 448 Republicans, 305 Democrats and 265 others. It has a 3.1 percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

Link.

That must be the majority of the 20% of the hispanics in this country voting for Trump. Texas hispanics are weird.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2016, 09:07:10 pm by matthew27 »Logged
Invisible Obama
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2016, 09:10:20 pm »

Trump isn't going to get that much of the Hispanic vote even if this is Texas we are talking about. Obama carried Hispanics there by 28% in 2008 and that was against a mainstream Republican candidate.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2016, 09:17:13 pm »

Texas pollsters are pretty bad.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2016, 09:25:21 pm »

What this poll does seem to indicate, is that there hasn't been a complete collapse of Anglo educated suburban voters, (possibly outside of DFW) that we have started to see in a mixture of Northern and Southern states....

I don't think so. A Republican only winning whites by 20 points in Texas is pretty terrible.  McCain won whites by like 50 points.

Agreed. but this poll seems sketchy on so many levels....

Texas is arguably one of the toughest states to poll, and quite frankly despite MOE on cross-tabs on so many levels this doesn't make a lot of sense....

What I want to see is a real poll of Texas from a solid pollster that includes regional breakdowns, as well as legitimate means of polling predominately Spanish language voters...

That being said, the Anglo vote numbers are likely the most accurate of the ethnic/racial sub-samples, so dig your point Lief.

So you are indicating that despite EastTex voting traditional dog-whistle Southern style, that there is significant forward movement among suburban/exurban Anglos in places like Fort Bend, Montgomery, Denton counties, not to mention parts of sprawling Harris County and places like Round Rock Texas?

Not disagreeing with you, considering the collapse of Trump support among educated Anglo voters in many parts of the country, that voted Republican in '12 or '08 for President...

Not sure about the "Whites" versus "Anglos" deal, but spent a few years in Texas so there is some subtlety when it comes to self-identification of Texas Latinos and we're not even getting into Tejano self-identification. Wink
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2016, 09:31:08 pm »

Texas pollsters are pretty bad.

Polling Texas is extremely expensive and difficult, so yes local pollsters tend to be bad.

National pollsters tend to be bad as well when it comes to TX.... no one wants to spend the money on Texas so long as there aren't any competitive national elections, and there will be some interest in Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections on an off-cycle, but still as it has increasingly become a one-party state on national elections.....

Totally bummed we can't see any decent polls of the Great State of Texas, where I lived for quite some time....

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« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2016, 10:02:47 pm »

Those hispanic and "other" numbers are comically off. Black support is much too high as well. Definitely junk.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2016, 10:42:49 pm »

I'd expect the Latino numbers here to be more Trump-friendly than they are nationwide, but I'm not sure I buy a mere 15-point advantage for Hillary. It's not like I expect Texas to be competitive, though, so it's not a big deal.

Anglo?  Is it the 1800s?  LOL
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xingkerui
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« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2016, 10:46:27 pm »

I'd expect the Latino numbers here to be more Trump-friendly than they are nationwide, but I'm not sure I buy a mere 15-point advantage for Hillary. It's not like I expect Texas to be competitive, though, so it's not a big deal.

Anglo?  Is it the 1800s?  LOL

Huh?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2016, 10:49:16 pm »

I'd expect the Latino numbers here to be more Trump-friendly than they are nationwide, but I'm not sure I buy a mere 15-point advantage for Hillary. It's not like I expect Texas to be competitive, though, so it's not a big deal.

Anglo?  Is it the 1800s?  LOL

Have you ever lived in Texas?

 Wink

"Whites" might be the normal term in much of the country outside of the West and South-West, but ethnic identity defies skin pigmentation, so yes I think there is a reason the US Census Bureau changed their definitions back in 2010 to remove "race" as a single bubble to add in multiple bubbles that individuals could fill out that they feel is an accurate self-description.

Not trying to bag on you since I know this was a bit of playful sarcasm, but there might be others on the thread that take it at face value. Smiley
« Last Edit: August 11, 2016, 10:56:23 pm by NOVA Green »Logged
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« Reply #22 on: August 11, 2016, 11:13:33 pm »

Those hispanic and "other" numbers are comically off. Black support is much too high as well. Definitely junk.
Somebody doesn't know Texas ---
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2016, 02:27:12 am »

Trump up 11 from a pollster of which I know nothing and whose name (Dixie!) has connotations of nostalgia for an old political order.... it is a weak lead for a Republican, considering that it is Texas. John McCain won Texas by 12% in 2008 without having any connections to Texas.

I can use it only as a filler for the upcoming poll by PPP.
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Hammy
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« Reply #24 on: August 12, 2016, 03:45:08 am »

As someone from Texas this seems about right. Hispanics here also tend to be much further to the right than hispanics in other states fwiw. Greg Abbott actually won Hispanic Men in 2014.

I remember hearing similar in 2004--didn't Bush win the Hispanic vote there?
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