TX-KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump +11

[pbrower2a]

Trump up 11 from a pollster of which I know nothing and whose name (Dixie!) has connotations of nostalgia for an old political order.... it is a weak lead for a Republican, considering that it is Texas. John McCain won Texas by 12% in 2008 without having any connections to Texas.

I can use it only as a filler for the upcoming poll by PPP.

[pbrower2a]

You shouldn't "unskew" a poll you don't like, really. Sometimes, the crosstabs are a bit off but the topline is correct (see also: SurveyUSA). Wait for PPP, but Texas is fool's gold for Democrats.

I concur. Texas is the difference between perhaps 420 and 458 electoral votes. It will be a costly state in which Democrats would campaign, and there is no Senate race. Should Hillary Clinton win it, then such would reflect not so much her strength as a candidate but instead the utter failure of Donald Trump as a candidate. Texas media are costly because most are spread between some huge TV markets (Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio, El Paso, Austin)...

Even with this apparently weak lead, Donald Trump is close to the 50% that decides any election any time. 

[pbrower2a]

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Apparently the message was, "let's run a democrat, Donald Trump"

We would have had John McCain as President, Obama in 2012 and running for re-election this year.