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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12)
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12)  (Read 6152 times)
Lief 🐋
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« Reply #25 on: August 12, 2016, 11:09:59 am »

Definitely seems to have been some tightening in Florida (or it's been less affected by the DNC and aftermath for whatever reason), but Clinton has definitely gained in PA, CO, and VA at the very least.
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Anonymous
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« Reply #26 on: August 12, 2016, 11:15:49 am »

In before Seriously? complains of NBC's lamestream left-wing liberal media elite bias.

Trump is the gift that keeps on giving to Democrats.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #27 on: August 12, 2016, 11:17:54 am »

Johnson getting 12% in VA surprises me. Though he won't be getting close to that number on Election Day.
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dspNY
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« Reply #28 on: August 12, 2016, 11:18:58 am »

NBC has polled seven swing states and Trump can't get to 40 in any of them
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fldemfunds
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« Reply #29 on: August 12, 2016, 11:36:33 am »

Clinton being below 50 isn't too bad yet given that labor day hasn't passed. But trump sub 40 on all of these in head to head is telling. Election is building toward a landslide.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #30 on: August 12, 2016, 11:40:01 am »

Very good numbers for Johnson! (Oh, and for Hillary too.)

Johnson getting 12% in VA surprises me. Though he won't be getting close to that number on Election Day.

Well, if Trump continues as he has...
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Yank2133
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« Reply #31 on: August 12, 2016, 11:43:31 am »

My god.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: August 12, 2016, 11:43:43 am »

Johnson getting 12% in VA surprises me. Though he won't be getting close to that number on Election Day.

Robert C. Sarvis got 6.52% in the 2013 Governor Race. The candidates were actually kinda similar to this year.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #33 on: August 12, 2016, 11:55:36 am »

So North Carolina is voting about one or two points more Republican than Pennsylvania? This is a weird election.
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Saruman
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« Reply #34 on: August 12, 2016, 11:57:57 am »

And he's taking down Burr with him. Not good!
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JRP1994
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« Reply #35 on: August 12, 2016, 12:04:15 pm »

We need to start using the 4-way race numbers as the topline. At least 3-way. Johnson's support isn't dissipating - it's growing.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #36 on: August 12, 2016, 12:11:20 pm »

We need to start using the 4-way race numbers as the topline. At least 3-way. Johnson's support isn't dissipating - it's growing.

Agreed. This is very different from previous elections as the third party candidate, Johnson this time, is actually growing not falling in the polls. He numbers in each of these 4 state polls from NBC/Marist/WSJ rose 2% compared to their last polls 3 weeks ago. (7% in FL and NC, 10% in VA, 13% in CO).
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #37 on: August 12, 2016, 12:36:26 pm »

Pretty interesting how in a lot of these states, Johnson's % signified the difference between Clinton and Trump.
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« Reply #38 on: August 12, 2016, 01:15:39 pm »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.
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Arch
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« Reply #39 on: August 12, 2016, 01:17:28 pm »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.

That's not how it works.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #40 on: August 12, 2016, 01:19:07 pm »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.

State polls don't count. He has to be winning 15% of the vote NATIONALLY
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #41 on: August 12, 2016, 01:23:04 pm »

A lot of people who say they are voting for Johnson (or Stein) will, in the final picture, decide not to vote . Those that will vote will vote for Clinton more than they would usually. These are mostly GOP voters after all.  So in all probability the polls are exaggerating Trump's chances.

Anyway, I'm tired and with a sh**tty WIFI connection in a bus so a question: Am I right in thinking that 1984 was the only contested election in US history where one candidate won all 13 of the original colonies?
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Vosem
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« Reply #42 on: August 12, 2016, 01:28:47 pm »

A lot of people who say they are voting for Johnson (or Stein) will, in the final picture, decide not to vote . Those that will vote will vote for Clinton more than they would usually. These are mostly GOP voters after all.  So in all probability the polls are exaggerating Trump's chances.

Sure, but I doubt this effect will be worth more than a few points.

Anyway, I'm tired and with a sh**tty WIFI connection in a bus so a question: Am I right in thinking that 1984 was the only contested election in US history where one candidate won all 13 of the original colonies?

1936 works as well.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #43 on: August 12, 2016, 01:35:16 pm »

A lot of people who say they are voting for Johnson (or Stein) will, in the final picture, decide not to vote . Those that will vote will vote for Clinton more than they would usually. These are mostly GOP voters after all.  So in all probability the polls are exaggerating Trump's chances.

Anyway, I'm tired and with a sh**tty WIFI connection in a bus so a question: Am I right in thinking that 1984 was the only contested election in US history where one candidate won all 13 of the original colonies?

Well, FDR won all 13 colonies in 1936 even though he lost Maine and VT.  Maine was part of MA in colonial days and Maine + MA would still been FDR. VT was claimed by both NY and NH, a VT/NH combination would have gone to Landon.

Same thing in 1940, except a NH/VT combo would have been a very narrow FDR win.

Same thing in 1944, except NH/VT would have flipped to Wilkie.
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Skye
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« Reply #44 on: August 12, 2016, 01:41:57 pm »

So yeah, Trump is toast. 2008 is probably the best comparison right now.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #45 on: August 12, 2016, 01:59:13 pm »

It looks like Trump is having a bit of trouble in these states.

You think ?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #46 on: August 12, 2016, 02:00:29 pm »

The NC number is the one that is most devastating to trump.
And seeing FL creep-up higher in Hillary's favor is also good news.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #47 on: August 12, 2016, 02:09:34 pm »
« Edited: August 12, 2016, 02:17:02 pm by Seriously? »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.
Except that's not the rule. It's 15% in specific nationwide polls. He won't get in. Objectively, he's running at around 5-10% in most national polls.

I have nothing to say about these polls, except it's RV and Marist seems to skewed a few points to the left this cycle. I haven't dig deep into the internals, but this is the "youngest male methodology."

It doesn't look like there has been much movement since they last polled in July.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #48 on: August 12, 2016, 02:16:33 pm »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.
Except that's not the rule. It's 15% in specific nationwide polls. He won't get in. Objectively, he's running at around 5-10% in most national polls.

I have nothing to say about these polls, except it's RV and Marist seems to skewed a few points to the left this cycle. I haven't gotten a look at the internals.

It doesn't look like there has been much movement since they last polled in July.

This is objectively wrong. Johnson's highest in the national polls that will be used:

CNN: 13%
FOX: 12%
CBS: 12%
NBC:11%
ABC: 8%

11.2% average.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #49 on: August 12, 2016, 02:19:38 pm »

The margins are a bit overblown I guess, but Trump's definitely in trouble.
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