Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 19, 2019, 03:50:57 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Print
Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12)  (Read 6150 times)
/
darthebearnc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,378
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: August 12, 2016, 03:52:17 pm »

lol what
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,611
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: August 12, 2016, 03:56:28 pm »

North Carolina! North Carolina!!! by 9? Christ, maybe its a little off (I can't imagine it being that different from Florida) but my god, Jeb Bush would be doing better right now.
Logged
psychprofessor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,073


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: August 12, 2016, 04:10:41 pm »
« Edited: August 12, 2016, 04:12:18 pm by psychprofessor »

Florida fav/unfav

Clinton: 40/54 (-14)

Trump: 31/62 (-31!!!)

Yikes.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,611
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: August 12, 2016, 04:12:11 pm »

North Carolina! North Carolina!!! by 9? Christ, maybe its a little off (I can't imagine it being that different from Florida) but my god, Jeb Bush would be doing better right now.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Alan Grayson would be leading Trump right now, lol.

Funny how those two are both from Florida.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: August 12, 2016, 04:43:34 pm »

NC does seem like it might be slightly high, but then again not totally inconsistent with a few of the recent polls out of Georgia and Virginia.

Logged
Liberalrocks
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.35


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: August 12, 2016, 04:48:28 pm »

So yeah, Trump is toast. 2008 is probably the best comparison right now.
If this trajectory keeps up 1964 might be a better comparison
Logged
HagridOfTheDeep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,960
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -2.96


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: August 12, 2016, 05:06:03 pm »

I mean, she's recently been sporting her modest "let's appeal to simple, religious, salt-of-the-earth, low-income voters" hairstyle, so it's not hard to believe these places really are locks.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: August 12, 2016, 05:08:35 pm »

So yeah, Trump is toast. 2008 is probably the best comparison right now.
If this trajectory keeps up 1964 might be a better comparison
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: August 12, 2016, 05:32:32 pm »

I mean, she's recently been sporting her modest "let's appeal to simple, religious, salt-of-the-earth, low-income voters" hairstyle, so it's not hard to believe these places really are locks.

Hillary always seemed more genuine and stronger candidate to me when she worked the populist working-class issues in the '08 primaries than the Hillary of the '16 primaries.

Now I haven't been paying much attention to her hairstyle or clothing, but rhetorically and substantively I think she has now successfully managed to pivot back to the "fighter for all Americans" mode, now that the primaries are over and (thanks to Bernie), we now have an extremely progressive party platform.

Not quite sure your exact meaning....  are you are saying that she has solidified support in these particular states as a result of expanding support among low-income White/Anglo undecided voters, or that somehow these states are more representative of that particular demographic? I am assuming the former, rather than the latter.

Logged
Lok
lok1999
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,277
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: August 12, 2016, 05:40:56 pm »

This election is nuts. If this trend keeps up we may be looking at the first genuine landslide in decades.

Clinton 92 and 96...
Logged
HagridOfTheDeep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,960
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -2.96


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: August 12, 2016, 06:00:48 pm »
« Edited: August 12, 2016, 06:08:41 pm by HagridOfTheDeep »

I mean, she's recently been sporting her modest "let's appeal to simple, religious, salt-of-the-earth, low-income voters" hairstyle, so it's not hard to believe these places really are locks.

Hillary always seemed more genuine and stronger candidate to me when she worked the populist working-class issues in the '08 primaries than the Hillary of the '16 primaries.

Now I haven't been paying much attention to her hairstyle or clothing, but rhetorically and substantively I think she has now successfully managed to pivot back to the "fighter for all Americans" mode, now that the primaries are over and (thanks to Bernie), we now have an extremely progressive party platform.

Not quite sure your exact meaning....  are you are saying that she has solidified support in these particular states as a result of expanding support among low-income White/Anglo undecided voters, or that somehow these states are more representative of that particular demographic? I am assuming the former, rather than the latter.

In fact, I'm suggesting that the she has already secured the places where any Democrat should be competitive.

Now she has the luxury of trying to appeal to less liberally inclined voters in traditionally red states. Hence the less manicured look.

She also wore this look on her swing to Kentucky and West Virginia for the primaries earlier this year.


West Virginia:

Image Link
Image Link

Michigan (a couple days ago):
Image Link


These are compared to this look that she was sporting when the race was tighter:

Image Link


The urban looks are usually more "volumous" and done up. When she strays from that (and puts her hair behind her ears, for example), it seems that there is usually a reason. I know this is all kind of ridiculous, but you can't tell me the image isn't deliberately managed.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: August 12, 2016, 06:05:34 pm »

I mean, she's recently been sporting her modest "let's appeal to simple, religious, salt-of-the-earth, low-income voters" hairstyle, so it's not hard to believe these places really are locks.

Hillary always seemed more genuine and stronger candidate to me when she worked the populist working-class issues in the '08 primaries than the Hillary of the '16 primaries.

Now I haven't been paying much attention to her hairstyle or clothing, but rhetorically and substantively I think she has now successfully managed to pivot back to the "fighter for all Americans" mode, now that the primaries are over and (thanks to Bernie), we now have an extremely progressive party platform.

Not quite sure your exact meaning....  are you are saying that she has solidified support in these particular states as a result of expanding support among low-income White/Anglo undecided voters, or that somehow these states are more representative of that particular demographic? I am assuming the former, rather than the latter.

In fact, I'm suggesting that the she has already secured the places where any Democrat should be competitive.

Now she has the luxury of trying to appeal to less liberally inclined voters in traditionally red states. Hence the less manicured look.
Trump did it for her.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: August 12, 2016, 06:07:56 pm »

I mean, she's recently been sporting her modest "let's appeal to simple, religious, salt-of-the-earth, low-income voters" hairstyle, so it's not hard to believe these places really are locks.

Hillary always seemed more genuine and stronger candidate to me when she worked the populist working-class issues in the '08 primaries than the Hillary of the '16 primaries.

Now I haven't been paying much attention to her hairstyle or clothing, but rhetorically and substantively I think she has now successfully managed to pivot back to the "fighter for all Americans" mode, now that the primaries are over and (thanks to Bernie), we now have an extremely progressive party platform.

Not quite sure your exact meaning....  are you are saying that she has solidified support in these particular states as a result of expanding support among low-income White/Anglo undecided voters, or that somehow these states are more representative of that particular demographic? I am assuming the former, rather than the latter.

In fact, I'm suggesting that the she has already secured the places where any Democrat should be competitive.

Now she has the luxury of trying to appeal to less liberally inclined voters in traditionally red states. Hence the less manicured look.


LOL.... I get what you're saying, but most guys don't really pay that much attention to that level of detail. Now, it does seem that she has managed to create potentially one of the largest gender gaps we have seen in decades, so maybe that helps with sometimes Dem/ Indies / Republican women doing the more "authentic" rugged look?
Logged
HagridOfTheDeep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,960
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -2.96


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: August 12, 2016, 06:09:44 pm »

I added photos above. I know it's ridiculous, but there's a pattern to it. And a candidate's image is always carefully managed.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,941
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: August 12, 2016, 06:20:42 pm »

I added photos above. I know it's ridiculous, but there's a pattern to it. And a candidate's image is always carefully managed.

So, ponytail = mega landslide?
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,768
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: August 12, 2016, 06:29:39 pm »

In other words, if Clinton enters the first debate like this, it's bad news for Trump.

Image Link
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: August 12, 2016, 06:39:02 pm »

I added photos above. I know it's ridiculous, but there's a pattern to it. And a candidate's image is always carefully managed.

ok... thanks for the photos, and get your very real point regarding imaging and optics.

Actually, this does open up an interesting side area of potential conversation about historical presidential elections and the colors of various candidates ties, and when they appear in "business casual" versus "NH sweaters", and various suit combos.

Not trying to be sarcastic, but haven't seen much Poly-Sci studies on these matters, other than the infamous "Dukakis riding around in a tank with a silly helmet" or JFK vs Nixon classic B&W debates, I don't recall reading much about candidate optics in terms of clothing and hairstyle that was considered to have made an impact.

Been awhile since Grad School, but this appears to be a new area of political-science research.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: August 12, 2016, 06:46:34 pm »

I added photos above. I know it's ridiculous, but there's a pattern to it. And a candidate's image is always carefully managed.

So, ponytail = mega landslide?

I think Trump should consider sporting a "tail" and loosen up his looks a bit in places like PA and OH, and maybe consider wearing jeans and nice button down occasionally, because otherwise he looks too much like the boss that will declare "you're fired".

In fact if he can get his hair into a pony-tail it might add some points to him in Western States where he is vulnerable like Colorado for example.

NC/VA--- I would consider he consider going with tan "business casual" suit pants and consider occasionally throwing on a polo or short sleeves on Fridays during the summer....

For ME/NH/CT---- Thinking LL Bean flannel maybe combined with a nice waterproof vest might help as we move into the Late Fall and cooler climate.
Logged
Chief Justice Keef
etr906
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,063
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: August 12, 2016, 10:09:32 pm »

Amazing polls. Can't wait till Trump and his supporters get a big slap in the face on election night.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,731
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: August 12, 2016, 10:23:34 pm »

Dominating!
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,450
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: August 12, 2016, 10:43:18 pm »

This election is nuts. If this trend keeps up we may be looking at the first genuine landslide in decades.

It depends upon the definition of a landslide.

Reagan 1984 (all but Minnesota and the District of Columbia) is one of the all-time slaughters in the popular vote. But in 1984 there was little state-to-state polarization as the Democratic Party was making the tradition from being a strongly-Southern party to a strongly-Northern party while being weak in both regions. The margin of Barack Obama's 2008 victory is close to those of FDR in 1944 and the elder Bush in 1988... Obama won by Reagan-like landslide margins in enough states to win, yet lost several states by 10% or more.

No Democratic nominee  has won Colorado or New Hampshire by a 10% margin since 1964, or Virginia by such a margin since FDR in 1944. We may be in unusual territory this year. But Donald Trump is also an unusually awful candidate for President, too. 
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,410
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: August 13, 2016, 04:32:03 am »

LOL, Trump gets crushed. Man, this guy is so done.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,731
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: August 13, 2016, 01:50:00 pm »

By the way, it looks like the Clinton campaign's internal polling is pretty damn good. They pulled out of CO/VA long before any public polls were showing her up double digits there.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,183
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: August 13, 2016, 01:56:07 pm »

By the way, it looks like the Clinton campaign's internal polling is pretty damn good. They pulled out of CO/VA long before any public polls were showing her up double digits there.
Rather good point, actually. Keeping an eye on Clinton's campaign moves may be the best barometer we have on the election's status.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,621
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: August 13, 2016, 02:09:49 pm »

By the way, it looks like the Clinton campaign's internal polling is pretty damn good. They pulled out of CO/VA long before any public polls were showing her up double digits there.
Rather good point, actually. Keeping an eye on Clinton's campaign moves may be the best barometer we have on the election's status.

Agreed
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC