NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:32:03 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4
Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12)  (Read 10543 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: August 12, 2016, 11:09:59 AM »

Definitely seems to have been some tightening in Florida (or it's been less affected by the DNC and aftermath for whatever reason), but Clinton has definitely gained in PA, CO, and VA at the very least.
Logged
HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,037
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: August 12, 2016, 11:15:49 AM »

In before Seriously? complains of NBC's lamestream left-wing liberal media elite bias.

Trump is the gift that keeps on giving to Democrats.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: August 12, 2016, 11:17:54 AM »

Johnson getting 12% in VA surprises me. Though he won't be getting close to that number on Election Day.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,798
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: August 12, 2016, 11:18:58 AM »

NBC has polled seven swing states and Trump can't get to 40 in any of them
Logged
fldemfunds
Rookie
**
Posts: 168
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: August 12, 2016, 11:36:33 AM »

Clinton being below 50 isn't too bad yet given that labor day hasn't passed. But trump sub 40 on all of these in head to head is telling. Election is building toward a landslide.
Logged
Simfan34
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: August 12, 2016, 11:40:01 AM »

Very good numbers for Johnson! (Oh, and for Hillary too.)

Johnson getting 12% in VA surprises me. Though he won't be getting close to that number on Election Day.

Well, if Trump continues as he has...
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: August 12, 2016, 11:43:31 AM »

My god.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: August 12, 2016, 11:43:43 AM »

Johnson getting 12% in VA surprises me. Though he won't be getting close to that number on Election Day.

Robert C. Sarvis got 6.52% in the 2013 Governor Race. The candidates were actually kinda similar to this year.
Logged
evergreenarbor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 864


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: -8.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: August 12, 2016, 11:55:36 AM »

So North Carolina is voting about one or two points more Republican than Pennsylvania? This is a weird election.
Logged
Saruman
Rookie
**
Posts: 42


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: August 12, 2016, 11:57:57 AM »

And he's taking down Burr with him. Not good!
Logged
JRP1994
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,045


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: August 12, 2016, 12:04:15 PM »

We need to start using the 4-way race numbers as the topline. At least 3-way. Johnson's support isn't dissipating - it's growing.
Logged
amdcpus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 307
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: August 12, 2016, 12:11:20 PM »

We need to start using the 4-way race numbers as the topline. At least 3-way. Johnson's support isn't dissipating - it's growing.

Agreed. This is very different from previous elections as the third party candidate, Johnson this time, is actually growing not falling in the polls. He numbers in each of these 4 state polls from NBC/Marist/WSJ rose 2% compared to their last polls 3 weeks ago. (7% in FL and NC, 10% in VA, 13% in CO).
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: August 12, 2016, 12:36:26 PM »

Pretty interesting how in a lot of these states, Johnson's % signified the difference between Clinton and Trump.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: August 12, 2016, 01:15:39 PM »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,452
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: August 12, 2016, 01:17:28 PM »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.

That's not how it works.
Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,010
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: August 12, 2016, 01:19:07 PM »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.

State polls don't count. He has to be winning 15% of the vote NATIONALLY
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: August 12, 2016, 01:23:04 PM »

A lot of people who say they are voting for Johnson (or Stein) will, in the final picture, decide not to vote . Those that will vote will vote for Clinton more than they would usually. These are mostly GOP voters after all.  So in all probability the polls are exaggerating Trump's chances.

Anyway, I'm tired and with a sh**tty WIFI connection in a bus so a question: Am I right in thinking that 1984 was the only contested election in US history where one candidate won all 13 of the original colonies?
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,618
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: August 12, 2016, 01:28:47 PM »

A lot of people who say they are voting for Johnson (or Stein) will, in the final picture, decide not to vote . Those that will vote will vote for Clinton more than they would usually. These are mostly GOP voters after all.  So in all probability the polls are exaggerating Trump's chances.

Sure, but I doubt this effect will be worth more than a few points.

Anyway, I'm tired and with a sh**tty WIFI connection in a bus so a question: Am I right in thinking that 1984 was the only contested election in US history where one candidate won all 13 of the original colonies?

1936 works as well.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: August 12, 2016, 01:35:16 PM »

A lot of people who say they are voting for Johnson (or Stein) will, in the final picture, decide not to vote . Those that will vote will vote for Clinton more than they would usually. These are mostly GOP voters after all.  So in all probability the polls are exaggerating Trump's chances.

Anyway, I'm tired and with a sh**tty WIFI connection in a bus so a question: Am I right in thinking that 1984 was the only contested election in US history where one candidate won all 13 of the original colonies?

Well, FDR won all 13 colonies in 1936 even though he lost Maine and VT.  Maine was part of MA in colonial days and Maine + MA would still been FDR. VT was claimed by both NY and NH, a VT/NH combination would have gone to Landon.

Same thing in 1940, except a NH/VT combo would have been a very narrow FDR win.

Same thing in 1944, except NH/VT would have flipped to Wilkie.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: August 12, 2016, 01:41:57 PM »

So yeah, Trump is toast. 2008 is probably the best comparison right now.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: August 12, 2016, 01:59:13 PM »

It looks like Trump is having a bit of trouble in these states.

You think ?
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: August 12, 2016, 02:00:29 PM »

The NC number is the one that is most devastating to trump.
And seeing FL creep-up higher in Hillary's favor is also good news.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: August 12, 2016, 02:09:34 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2016, 02:17:02 PM by Seriously? »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.
Except that's not the rule. It's 15% in specific nationwide polls. He won't get in. Objectively, he's running at around 5-10% in most national polls.

I have nothing to say about these polls, except it's RV and Marist seems to skewed a few points to the left this cycle. I haven't dig deep into the internals, but this is the "youngest male methodology."

It doesn't look like there has been much movement since they last polled in July.
Logged
amdcpus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 307
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: August 12, 2016, 02:16:33 PM »

With Johnson up 15% in Colorado, he will have to be accepted into the debates.
Except that's not the rule. It's 15% in specific nationwide polls. He won't get in. Objectively, he's running at around 5-10% in most national polls.

I have nothing to say about these polls, except it's RV and Marist seems to skewed a few points to the left this cycle. I haven't gotten a look at the internals.

It doesn't look like there has been much movement since they last polled in July.

This is objectively wrong. Johnson's highest in the national polls that will be used:

CNN: 13%
FOX: 12%
CBS: 12%
NBC:11%
ABC: 8%

11.2% average.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: August 12, 2016, 02:19:38 PM »

The margins are a bit overblown I guess, but Trump's definitely in trouble.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 13 queries.