A lot of people who say they are voting for Johnson (or Stein) will, in the final picture, decide not to vote . Those that will vote will vote for Clinton more than they would usually. These are mostly GOP voters after all. So in all probability the polls are exaggerating Trump's chances.
Anyway, I'm tired and with a sh**tty WIFI connection in a bus so a question: Am I right in thinking that 1984 was the only contested election in US history where one candidate won all 13 of the original colonies?
Well, FDR won all 13 colonies in 1936 even though he lost Maine and VT. Maine was part of MA in colonial days and Maine + MA would still been FDR. VT was claimed by both NY and NH, a VT/NH combination would have gone to Landon.
Same thing in 1940, except a NH/VT combo would have been a very narrow FDR win.
Same thing in 1944, except NH/VT would have flipped to Wilkie.