NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12) (user search)
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  NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12) (search mode)
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12)  (Read 10713 times)
pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,859
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« on: August 12, 2016, 11:02:24 AM »


...and let's make first-class education more accessible and inexpensive (return to the old and effective liberal arts in undergraduate education) so that we never have an opening for so crass a demagogue as Donald Trump, even during an economic disaster or a military/diplomatic debacle.

 
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,859
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2016, 10:43:18 PM »

This election is nuts. If this trend keeps up we may be looking at the first genuine landslide in decades.

It depends upon the definition of a landslide.

Reagan 1984 (all but Minnesota and the District of Columbia) is one of the all-time slaughters in the popular vote. But in 1984 there was little state-to-state polarization as the Democratic Party was making the tradition from being a strongly-Southern party to a strongly-Northern party while being weak in both regions. The margin of Barack Obama's 2008 victory is close to those of FDR in 1944 and the elder Bush in 1988... Obama won by Reagan-like landslide margins in enough states to win, yet lost several states by 10% or more.

No Democratic nominee  has won Colorado or New Hampshire by a 10% margin since 1964, or Virginia by such a margin since FDR in 1944. We may be in unusual territory this year. But Donald Trump is also an unusually awful candidate for President, too. 
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pbrower2a
Atlas Star
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Posts: 26,859
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2016, 07:42:23 PM »

So yeah, Trump is toast. 2008 is probably the best comparison right now.
If this trajectory keeps up 1964 might be a better comparison

slow your role, people. Hillary is NOT getting an over 20 point 44 state victory. at best she might get something comparable to a 1988 sized landslide (and even then the EC margin will be smaller).

Obama in 2008 got almost the same share of the Presidential vote as George HW Bush got in 1988.

Hillary Clinton will definitely not get:

Alabama
Arkansas
Idaho
Kentucky
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Tennessee
West Virginia
Wyoming

She will certainly not get Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District.

I promise some interesting maps after the election...

Count on this: the Presidential election this time will not be interesting except for statistical freaks.
 
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