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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton leads in FL, NH - Trump ahead in GA  (Read 2610 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 14, 2016, 09:30:41 am »



https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/14/cbs-battleground-florida-georgia-new-hampshire
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2016, 09:32:00 am »

Clinton +5 in FL is significant
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2016, 09:32:37 am »

Yeah I didn't expect a tie or lead for Hillary in GA, but being up 5 in FL is even better.
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riceowl
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2016, 09:36:19 am »

NH: Women who are not currently supporting Trump - Would you consider voting for Trump?

No - 91%
Maybe - 9%
Yes - 0%
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2016, 09:38:12 am »

Wow... Trump ahead in GA?

That NH poll is junk. If Clinton is winning NH females 51-29, she's up by at least 15 points in the state, not 9. Safe D.

Also lol@Trump keeping it closer with Hispanics in FL than with females in NH.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2016, 09:46:52 am by TN volunteer »Logged

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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2016, 09:39:27 am »

You know things are going good when Trump +4 in GA is a "bad" poll.  Overall a solid set of numbers for Clinton.

I love how CBS aired those numbers from angry NH women about how they're never ever voting for Trump.
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2016, 09:42:35 am »

New Hampshire is 99.9% gone for Trump
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2016, 09:43:59 am »

FL is quite strong for Hillary, NH about where everyone expected and GA better for Trump than I would have thought.

fully online polls with an R lean this cycle that usually underestimated POC support for Clinton.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2016, 09:44:18 am »

New Hampshire is 99.9% gone for Trump

It was never there.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2016, 09:48:02 am »

Those numbers are in line with a 7-9% Clinton-lead nationally.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2016, 10:00:09 am »

The numbers in Florida are very promising.
Agree that NH is at least Likely at this point, and will not fall lower than Lean by Nov. This will not be a toss-up state, but will be guaranteed win for Hillary.
GA needs work ; I question if Hillary should spend resources here.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2016, 10:17:39 am by ProudModerate2 »Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2016, 10:00:41 am »

One thing that is important... with LV screens in place the Johnson/Stein numbers drop.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2016, 10:06:48 am »

GA needs work ; I question if Hillary should spend resources here.

There's a lot of upside for her in investing in Georgia. She doesn't need to spend the money elsewhere to win, and there are a lot of inactive voters who can be registered and motivated to vote and start turning things around. Trump having zero campaign in the state would subtract a few points from his lead.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2016, 10:26:13 am »

The idea of GA voting to the left of FL was also strange to me, so these numbers make more sense. I'll certainly take a 5-point lead in FL, and this confirms NH being out of play.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2016, 10:45:10 am »

The idea of GA voting to the left of FL was also strange to me, so these numbers make more sense. I'll certainly take a 5-point lead in FL, and this confirms NH being out of play.

Out of play seems a little strong to me. These are good numbers for HRC, no doubt - but she's also leading by like 7 points or so nationally. If the race was to tighten after the debate or with some kind of economic trouble, NH could be swingin' again.
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2016, 10:56:57 am »

The idea of GA voting to the left of FL was also strange to me, so these numbers make more sense. I'll certainly take a 5-point lead in FL, and this confirms NH being out of play.

Out of play seems a little strong to me. These are good numbers for HRC, no doubt - but she's also leading by like 7 points or so nationally. If the race was to tighten after the debate or with some kind of economic trouble, NH could be swingin' again.

"NH: Women who are not currently supporting Trump - Would you consider voting for Trump?

No - 91%
Maybe - 9%
Yes - 0%"

No. It's gone.
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2016, 11:03:04 am »

Maybe if Clinton killed a girl on live TV and said that women shouldn't be allowed to vote, Trump would only lose NH by 2.
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LLR
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2016, 11:07:30 am »

Maybe if Clinton killed a girl on live TV and said that women shouldn't be allowed to vote, Trump would only lose NH by 2.

We have reached peak TN Volunteer, folks.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2016, 11:07:38 am »

GA needs work ; I question if Hillary should spend resources here.

There's a lot of upside for her in investing in Georgia. She doesn't need to spend the money elsewhere to win, and there are a lot of inactive voters who can be registered and motivated to vote and start turning things around. Trump having zero campaign in the state would subtract a few points from his lead.

I want to agree, but the 50% runoff threshold could severely hurt Dem downballot progress there.  Let's see if McMullin gets on the AZ ballot.  If he does, I think AZ becomes the better Clinton target.  If not, invest in AZ.

Put that way—I agree that AZ is a better target than GA. Certainly its Republican statewide officials sound more scared than Georgia's already! I'd say to fund both, but I don't know if the Clinton campaign can do that.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2016, 11:24:47 am »

Haha, who's doing the names for the poll tracker?  "Deep blue granite state" love it
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2016, 12:10:12 pm »

From the (approx.) 7 most widely known media outlets to track the presidential race, The Cook Political Report is the last to still show NH as "toss-up."
I predict that by latter this week, The Cook will adjust the status to show NH at least "Lean," but possibly "Likely" for Hillary.
(Cook's status ladder = Toss-Up / Lean / Likely / Solid.)
« Last Edit: August 14, 2016, 12:12:22 pm by ProudModerate2 »Logged
Heisenberg
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2016, 01:46:39 pm »

No Florida Senate poll?
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Endorsements:
AZ-SEN: Martha McSally
FL-SEN: Rick Scott
IN-SEN: Mike Braun
MI-SEN: John James
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley
MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale
NV-SEN: Dean Heller
OH-SEN: Jim Renacci
PA-SEN: Lou Barletta
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn
TX-SEN: Ted Cruz
WV-SEN: Patrick Morrisey
FL-GOV: Ron DeSantis
OH-GOV: Mike DeWine
TX-GOV: Greg Abbott
WI-GOV: Scott Walker
NH-GOV: Molly Kelly
NH-02: Annie Kuster
iBizzBee
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2016, 01:47:54 pm »

No Florida Senate poll?

Seems like they only polled New Hampshire;

Quote
NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE

The Battleground Tracker also polled New Hampshire voters about a competitive Senate race in the state between incumbent Republican US Senator Kelly Ayotte and the state's Democratic Governor, Maggie Hassan. The race is essentially tied, with the Democrat holding a nominal lead over Ayotte, 42% to 41%. Seventeen percent of voters are still undecided.

The poll contains a clue to how Ayotte can poll five points ahead of Donald Trump: 78% of New Hampshire voters say Ayotte is a “different kind of Republican” than the party’s presidential nominee, a view that is shared by most Republicans and even most Democrats. Ayotte also polls seven points higher than Trump among Republicans, while Hassan polls eight points behind Hillary Clinton among Democrats.

Link
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2016, 01:47:55 pm »

No Florida Senate poll?

No Sad But yet they wasted their time polling non-competitive NH Roll Eyes
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« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2016, 01:49:58 pm »

No Florida Senate poll?

No Sad But yet they wasted their time polling non-competitive NH Roll Eyes
Yes, I can't imagine their disappointment when they found a full 1 point gulf standing between the two candidates.
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