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  TX-KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump +11
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Author Topic: TX-KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump +11  (Read 2499 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #25 on: August 12, 2016, 09:31:55 am »

You shouldn't "unskew" a poll you don't like, really. Sometimes, the crosstabs are a bit off but the topline is correct (see also: SurveyUSA). Wait for PPP, but Texas is fool's gold for Democrats.

I concur. Texas is the difference between perhaps 420 and 458 electoral votes. It will be a costly state in which Democrats would campaign, and there is no Senate race. Should Hillary Clinton win it, then such would reflect not so much her strength as a candidate but instead the utter failure of Donald Trump as a candidate. Texas media are costly because most are spread between some huge TV markets (Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio, El Paso, Austin)...

Even with this apparently weak lead, Donald Trump is close to the 50% that decides any election any time. 
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jimmie
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« Reply #26 on: August 12, 2016, 09:55:19 am »

This poll is slightly inflated for Trump. If we could get Texas to only +4 to 7 Trump, it could make a big difference in the popular vote for Hillary Clinton.

Yes, the electoral college chooses our President, but any popular vote Hillary can get adds to the mandate.

In the past, the Republicans in Texas have done a terrific job in reaching out to Hispanics. If the national Republican Party continues very anti-immigrant rhetoric, that is what could swing the state this year and in future elections. Bush won over 40% of Hispanics in 2004 nationally, and possibly tied them in Texas.

Now, as the Hispanic voter population climbs; the Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot by their anti-immigration rhetoric. Really, Hispanics are more of a swing demographic then a solid Democratic demographic.
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DS0816
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« Reply #27 on: August 12, 2016, 10:51:33 am »

Dismissed.
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Reginald
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« Reply #28 on: August 12, 2016, 11:33:43 am »

No one's pointed out >decimals yet? Shame...

Wish we got more on the methodology, but the number up top isn't unthinkable. Though pretty much all of the crosstabs are weird. If Clinton loses Whites by only 20 she's doing way better than -11.

Perhaps the big takeaway here is that Clinton's favorability is worse than Trump's. We'll see what others say, but don't be surprised if that's really the case here.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #29 on: August 12, 2016, 11:40:21 am »

Yes, the electoral college chooses our President, but any popular vote Hillary can get adds to the mandate.

Agreed. However, I don't think it means much to GOP leaders. They didn't get the message after 2008, after all. Any loss this cycle is going to be written off as Trump stealing the election from them, and thus there was no mandate because they will say a regular Republican would have won it.

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I wouldn't say so. Democrats historically have gotten a comfortable majority of this demographic in every election we have data for. Since 1984, Democrats have gotten >60% of the Hispanic vote in every election except 2004, and it's safe to say at this point that Republicans have essentially forfeited any chance at making inroads with Hispanics for possibly decades. 60% was our floor, more or less, and I'm willing to bet post-Trump it will be somewhere between 65% - 75%.
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #30 on: August 12, 2016, 03:34:45 pm »

The Republican party of Texas has been pretty smart in terms of presenting a much more welcoming attitude to the states Hispanic population. The national Republican party and other state parties like Arizona especially have let the racist xenophobes take over. In Texas, even many Republicans will point out how many Tejanos fought for Texas's independence against Mexico. You have Ted Cruz  being a Hispanic senator, and the Bush's being pro immigration. Compare Rick Perry's record on immigration v Jan Brewer's. Texas Republicans have played it pretty smart while the rest of the nation's Republican party is facing a electoral time bomb.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #31 on: August 12, 2016, 10:19:46 pm »

I find it funny some people are upset/disappointed when a poll shows Trump performing at McCain levels in Texas. Some of you guys have your standards WAY too high and will probably start chicken littling again once Hillary leads by "only" 5-6 points or something. Roll Eyes

Speaking of that, where has Beet been? He's been MIA since Hillary surged in the polls.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #32 on: August 15, 2016, 04:48:03 pm »

New Poll: Texas President by Other Source on 2016-08-09

Summary: D: 35%, R: 46%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #33 on: August 15, 2016, 05:20:47 pm »

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Apparently the message was, "let's run a democrat, Donald Trump"
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #34 on: August 15, 2016, 07:55:36 pm »

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Apparently the message was, "let's run a democrat, Donald Trump"

We would have had John McCain as President, Obama in 2012 and running for re-election this year. 
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