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Author Topic: WA- Elway Poll: Clinton +19  (Read 2234 times)
Fargobison
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« on: August 15, 2016, 11:59:03 am »

Clinton 43
Trump 24
Johnson 7
Stein 4

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3013245-Elway-Poll-Governor-President-081516.html
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2016, 12:03:11 pm »

But I thought this was one of his secret states???


Pretty low number for Stein all things considered.
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2016, 12:09:50 pm »

Trump under 25, lol
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2016, 12:12:50 pm »

Clinton leads 45-24 among likely voters. Safe, safe, super safe D
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2016, 12:12:57 pm »

That's an ever bigger margin than Obama in 2008 in a state that was a perfect fit for him.
Then again Washington state must be one of the most educated states in the union and Trump is about as appealing as cholera to these voters.
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2016, 12:15:48 pm »

xingkerui could expand on this a little more since he's got a Washington State avatar and NOVA Green could with his Oregon avatar but Clinton +19 is almost certainly a 12 point lead at the worst in Oregon
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2016, 12:20:47 pm »

I'm happy to live in such a freedom state! Smiley

People claiming that Washington will at least trend toward Trump are making the mistake of assuming that all white voters are trending Republican. That's not the case in the Pacific Northwest. Washington and Oregon have trended Democratic, since nearly all of the population growth has been in the Seattle/Portland areas. Trump is a horrible fit for Washington, and he'll get annihilated west of the Cascades. He'll win most of the ultra conservatives in Eastern WashingtonWestern Idaho, but there's also a sizable Latino population in areas like Yakima, so that could be helping Clinton even more. Even though Obama was probably a slightly better fit for Washington than Hillary, I expect her to win by more, simply because we hate Trump so much here.

I'd say that NOVAGreen could tell us the most about Oregon, but I'd expect most of what I said to be true to an extent there as well, and I'd be stunned if Hillary didn't win by double digits.
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Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2016, 12:38:18 pm »

I'm sick of all these polls with loads of undecideds and third party support.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2016, 12:38:26 pm »

I knew, personally, tons of Trump supporters living in Spokane. I have met zero in the Seattle area since moving back.
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« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2016, 01:00:40 pm »

I'm happy to live in such a freedom state! Smiley

People claiming that Washington will at least trend toward Trump are making the mistake of assuming that all white voters are trending Republican. That's not the case in the Pacific Northwest. Washington and Oregon have trended Democratic, since nearly all of the population growth has been in the Seattle/Portland areas. Trump is a horrible fit for Washington, and he'll get annihilated west of the Cascades. He'll win most of the ultra conservatives in Eastern WashingtonWestern Idaho, but there's also a sizable Latino population in areas like Yakima, so that could be helping Clinton even more. Even though Obama was probably a slightly better fit for Washington than Hillary, I expect her to win by more, simply because we hate Trump so much here.

I'd say that NOVAGreen could tell us the most about Oregon, but I'd expect most of what I said to be true to an extent there as well, and I'd be stunned if Hillary didn't win by double digits.

This is all true. Adding onto this, Washington is historically friendly to third-party candidates, so Johnson and Stein should both do well here. I expect Trump to be hurt by Johnson much more than Clinton is hurt by Stein. I think there's a decent chance that the only county in Washington that ends up swinging towards Trump will be Lewis County (something like 90% white, no big cities, seems like a place Trump might do well).
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2016, 01:07:30 pm »

The margin is believable but that's a high undecided number.
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Castro
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« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2016, 01:17:17 pm »

A+ rated pollster according to 538.
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« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2016, 01:22:27 pm »

That, like most of the other state polls that have been coming out recently, seems consistent with a national lead for Hillary of about 8%. Reassuring to not see any discrepancies there.
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« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2016, 01:28:12 pm »

Trump at 24%. LOL. But 43% is also pretty weak for Hillary.
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« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2016, 02:30:38 pm »

I was in Enumclaw yesterday, and I'm pretty sure I saw enough Trump supporters there to cover the entire 24% in this poll, if you include that one guy in Ellensburg with his sign next to the freeway.

I'm really looking forward to seeing our county map this November.
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« Reply #15 on: August 15, 2016, 02:45:08 pm »

I'm really looking forward to seeing our county map this November.

I'm honestly not expecting that many flips from 2012, though Wahkiakum and Skamania could flip, and if there's one county in the east that Clinton might have a chance in, it's probably Whitman. Kittias and Spokane could trend toward Trump. I'd be stunned if Clinton actually won Yakima, but I wouldn't be surprised if it trended her way.
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Arch
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« Reply #16 on: August 15, 2016, 02:53:08 pm »

I'm really looking forward to seeing our county map this November.

I'm honestly not expecting that many flips from 2012, though Wahkiakum and Skamania could flip, and if there's one county in the east that Clinton might have a chance in, it's probably Whitman. Kittias and Spokane could trend toward Trump. I'd be stunned if Clinton actually won Yakima, but I wouldn't be surprised if it trended her way.

Why is WA such a freedom state? It's so unfair Sad WI is only a freedom state every 4 years.
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Mallow
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« Reply #17 on: August 15, 2016, 02:57:09 pm »

I'm happy to live in such a freedom state! Smiley

People claiming that Washington will at least trend toward Trump are making the mistake of assuming that all white voters are trending Republican. That's not the case in the Pacific Northwest. Washington and Oregon have trended Democratic, since nearly all of the population growth has been in the Seattle/Portland areas. Trump is a horrible fit for Washington, and he'll get annihilated west of the Cascades. He'll win most of the ultra conservatives in Eastern WashingtonWestern Idaho, but there's also a sizable Latino population in areas like Yakima, so that could be helping Clinton even more. Even though Obama was probably a slightly better fit for Washington than Hillary, I expect her to win by more, simply because we hate Trump so much here.

I'd say that NOVAGreen could tell us the most about Oregon, but I'd expect most of what I said to be true to an extent there as well, and I'd be stunned if Hillary didn't win by double digits.

Oregon is very similar on all counts, except maybe a lower Hispanic proportion in central Oregon, and a lower percentage of population east of the Cascades (in Oregon, about 13.1% of the population is in counties east of the Cascades, including Hood River County, whereas in Washington, about 20.0% of the population is in counties east of the Cascades).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: August 15, 2016, 07:05:14 pm »

Clinton leads 45-24 among likely voters. Safe, safe, super safe D

It's telling that this time, a Likely Voter screen gives Democrats an edge. I suspect that this implies a higher level of formal education on the average. Donald Trump is now doing badly with college-educated white people, usually the dream voters for Republicans of all kinds.

For now I consider a Likely Voter screen more relevant. Well-educated white voters who now reject Donald Trump are more likely to convince someone with a "Make America Great Again" cap that Donald Trump is a mistake than be convinced that Donald Trump really will make America great again.   
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2016, 07:14:10 pm »

Yet another data point showing that the LV/RV split is either a wash or somewhat favors Clinton this cycle.  Love it.
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« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2016, 07:27:02 pm »

Trump at 24%. LOL. But 43% is also pretty weak for Hillary.

The level of undecideds are ridiculous.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #21 on: August 15, 2016, 07:28:39 pm »

Eastern WashingtonWestern Idaho

Hey now. That's uncalled for.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #22 on: August 15, 2016, 07:42:52 pm »

Eastern WashingtonWestern Idaho

Hey now. That's uncalled for.

I don't dislike Idaho, but the two are politically very similar. Tongue
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #23 on: August 15, 2016, 07:45:34 pm »

Dammit, poll a close state for once
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: August 15, 2016, 07:53:05 pm »

Dammit, poll a close state for once

Indiana?
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