WA- Elway Poll: Clinton +19 (user search)
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  WA- Elway Poll: Clinton +19 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WA- Elway Poll: Clinton +19  (Read 4039 times)
evergreenarbor
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Posts: 864


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: -8.43

« on: August 15, 2016, 01:00:40 PM »

I'm happy to live in such a freedom state! Smiley

People claiming that Washington will at least trend toward Trump are making the mistake of assuming that all white voters are trending Republican. That's not the case in the Pacific Northwest. Washington and Oregon have trended Democratic, since nearly all of the population growth has been in the Seattle/Portland areas. Trump is a horrible fit for Washington, and he'll get annihilated west of the Cascades. He'll win most of the ultra conservatives in Eastern WashingtonWestern Idaho, but there's also a sizable Latino population in areas like Yakima, so that could be helping Clinton even more. Even though Obama was probably a slightly better fit for Washington than Hillary, I expect her to win by more, simply because we hate Trump so much here.

I'd say that NOVAGreen could tell us the most about Oregon, but I'd expect most of what I said to be true to an extent there as well, and I'd be stunned if Hillary didn't win by double digits.

This is all true. Adding onto this, Washington is historically friendly to third-party candidates, so Johnson and Stein should both do well here. I expect Trump to be hurt by Johnson much more than Clinton is hurt by Stein. I think there's a decent chance that the only county in Washington that ends up swinging towards Trump will be Lewis County (something like 90% white, no big cities, seems like a place Trump might do well).
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