Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 19, 2019, 02:51:53 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  MO- PPP: Trump +3
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: MO- PPP: Trump +3  (Read 1970 times)
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,490



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 17, 2016, 10:35:51 am »

Trump 45
Clinton 42

http://www.protectmofamilies.com/images/15290/Aug2016MissouriPresidentResultsPPP_PMF.pdf
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,938


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2016, 10:36:38 am »

Sponsor is a pro-union org.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,521


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2016, 10:39:22 am »

Looks like they only asked a few questions though... and the Demos are rather R leaning.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,968
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2016, 10:39:25 am »

MO is fool's gold for Democrats.
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,219
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2016, 10:41:11 am »

Nice topline obviously, but why wouldn't they ask gubernatorial and Senate races? If Trump is only +3 that could be bad news for Blunt.
Logged
badgate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,485


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2016, 10:41:39 am »
« Edited: August 17, 2016, 02:49:46 pm by badgate »

If it's between MO and TX, I say Texas.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2016, 10:46:23 am »

Fits almost perfectly with the 538 Nowcast so this is probably the state of the race in MO
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,462
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2016, 10:47:25 am »

Things must be going well for Koster, if this is the case. It's telling that Hillary is winning Florida by more than Trump is winning Missouri, lol.
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2016, 10:49:01 am »

Man, I wish they would have polled the Senate race (and Governor too).  If it's competitive, a Clinton investment in the state would be worthwhile, even if there are juicier targets like Georgia.

Trump +3 sounds about right, and they even got a decently Repub friendly sample.
Logged
Nhoj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.52, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2016, 10:58:20 am »

Shes only winning women by 2 in this and there are more undecided women. But that probably still leaves it at about trump 2.
Logged
Desroko
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 346
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2016, 10:59:06 am »


Almost certainly. The real question is whether Trump can be baited into spending on KC and STL. Neither market is cheap.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,941
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2016, 11:02:50 am »


Probably, though given a large enough national margin who knows what could happen. Regardless Clinton should only pay attention here to help out the Senate and Governor races.
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2016, 11:03:45 am »

Always be leery of these PPP polls that are done for an advocacy group. It's not the same poll that PPP would normally do.  There would be other questions that PPP would have ran if it was their own poll.
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,986


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2016, 11:04:52 am »

If nothing else, it bears very well for Koster.
Logged
darthpi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.91

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2016, 11:47:41 am »

Another poll that seems roughly consistent with a 7 or 8 point lead nationally for Hillary. I'll take it.
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,397
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2016, 01:00:07 pm »

Trump seems to have a very big problem with these whites that have a college degree, who voted for Mitt four years ago. That's bringing him down in many solid red states.
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2016, 01:26:54 pm »

Possibly attainable by Clinton .... especially if trump's new team makes his campaign more of a mockery than it was yesterday.
Logged
Luminous Longstreet
Spark498
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,667
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.50, S: -2.41

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2016, 01:27:56 pm »

Trump seems to have a very big problem with these whites that have a college degree, who voted for Mitt four years ago. That's bringing him down in many solid red states.

This isn't looking good.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2016, 02:26:57 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,986


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2016, 02:30:12 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,820
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2016, 02:31:37 pm »

PPP has too good of a reputation to skew their polls for their clients.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2016, 02:34:53 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,238
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2016, 02:42:54 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.
No, just no. 
Logged
darthpi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.91

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2016, 02:50:47 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.

It's worth considering that possibility, but the fact that it is consistent with the last two polls from Missouri makes me think that there is a decent chance that it is at least close to correct.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2016, 03:33:37 pm »
« Edited: August 17, 2016, 03:35:24 pm by LittleBigPlanet »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.
No, just no.  
Of course PPP or any other pollsters does not skew the polls, but there is always a "but"...

The real problem with such polls that it is [usually] up to client to publish the poll or not. And of course, the client is much more likely to let publish those polls that look good for him than those that don't. That's why those polls are more often outliers than "regular" polls.

So it depends on pollsters policy.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC